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Implications of population ageing for economic growth

The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during the period 2005 - 50. Population ageing will tend to lower both labour-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calc... Full description

Journal Title: Oxford Review of Economic Policy 2010, Vol.26 (4), p.583-612
Main Author: Bloom, David E
Other Authors: Canning, David , Fink, Günther
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
Age
J14
J21
J26
O10
O40
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ID: ISSN: 0266-903X
Link: http://www.fachportal-paedagogik.de/fis_bildung/suche/fis_set.html?FId=938572
Zum Text:
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recordid: cdi_gale_infotracacademiconefile_A261812143
title: Implications of population ageing for economic growth
format: Article
creator:
  • Bloom, David E
  • Canning, David
  • Fink, Günther
subjects:
  • Age
  • Altersstruktur
  • Arbeitskräfteangebot
  • Auswirkung
  • Bevölkerungsentwicklung
  • Bevölkerungsprognose
  • Bevölkerungsstruktur
  • Bildung
  • Bruttoinlandsprodukt
  • Demografischer Wandel
  • Demographic economics
  • Developed countries
  • Developing countries
  • Economic aspects
  • Economic growth
  • Economic policy
  • Erwerbsbeteiligung
  • Forecasts and trends
  • Frau
  • Humankapital
  • Institution
  • International aspects
  • Internationaler Vergleich
  • Investition
  • J14
  • J21
  • J26
  • Labor market
  • Labour force
  • labour-force participation
  • Lebenserwartung
  • Life expectancy
  • O10
  • O40
  • OECD
  • Older adults
  • Population ageing
  • Population aging
  • Population dynamics
  • Population economics
  • Population growth
  • Rentenalter
  • Rentenpolitik
  • Retirement age
  • Socioeconomics
  • Welt
  • Wirtschaftspolitik
  • Wirtschaftswachstum
ispartof: Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2010, Vol.26 (4), p.583-612
description: The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during the period 2005 - 50. Population ageing will tend to lower both labour-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest - but not catastrophic - declines in the rate of economic growth. However, behavioural responses (including greater female labour-force participation) and policy reforms (including an increase in the legal age of retirement) can mitigate the economic consequences of an older population. In most non-OECD countries, declining fertility rates will cause labour-force-to-population ratios to rise as the shrinking share of young people will more than offset the skewing of adults towards the older ages. These factors suggest that population ageing will not significantly impede the pace of economic growth in developing countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku). Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: empirisch-quantitativ; empirisch; Querschnitt; prognostisch; Evaluation; anwendungsorientiert. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1950 bis 2050.
language: eng
source:
identifier: ISSN: 0266-903X
fulltext: no_fulltext
issn:
  • 0266-903X
  • 1460-2121
url: Link


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descriptionThe share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during the period 2005 - 50. Population ageing will tend to lower both labour-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest - but not catastrophic - declines in the rate of economic growth. However, behavioural responses (including greater female labour-force participation) and policy reforms (including an increase in the legal age of retirement) can mitigate the economic consequences of an older population. In most non-OECD countries, declining fertility rates will cause labour-force-to-population ratios to rise as the shrinking share of young people will more than offset the skewing of adults towards the older ages. These factors suggest that population ageing will not significantly impede the pace of economic growth in developing countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku). Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: empirisch-quantitativ; empirisch; Querschnitt; prognostisch; Evaluation; anwendungsorientiert. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1950 bis 2050.
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subjectAge ; Altersstruktur ; Arbeitskräfteangebot ; Auswirkung ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Bevölkerungsprognose ; Bevölkerungsstruktur ; Bildung ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Demografischer Wandel ; Demographic economics ; Developed countries ; Developing countries ; Economic aspects ; Economic growth ; Economic policy ; Erwerbsbeteiligung ; Forecasts and trends ; Frau ; Humankapital ; Institution ; International aspects ; Internationaler Vergleich ; Investition ; J14 ; J21 ; J26 ; Labor market ; Labour force ; labour-force participation ; Lebenserwartung ; Life expectancy ; O10 ; O40 ; OECD ; Older adults ; Population ageing ; Population aging ; Population dynamics ; Population economics ; Population growth ; Rentenalter ; Rentenpolitik ; Retirement age ; Socioeconomics ; Welt ; Wirtschaftspolitik ; Wirtschaftswachstum
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descriptionThe share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during the period 2005 - 50. Population ageing will tend to lower both labour-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest - but not catastrophic - declines in the rate of economic growth. However, behavioural responses (including greater female labour-force participation) and policy reforms (including an increase in the legal age of retirement) can mitigate the economic consequences of an older population. In most non-OECD countries, declining fertility rates will cause labour-force-to-population ratios to rise as the shrinking share of young people will more than offset the skewing of adults towards the older ages. These factors suggest that population ageing will not significantly impede the pace of economic growth in developing countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku). Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: empirisch-quantitativ; empirisch; Querschnitt; prognostisch; Evaluation; anwendungsorientiert. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1950 bis 2050.
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0Age
1Altersstruktur
2Arbeitskräfteangebot
3Auswirkung
4Bevölkerungsentwicklung
5Bevölkerungsprognose
6Bevölkerungsstruktur
7Bildung
8Bruttoinlandsprodukt
9Demografischer Wandel
10Demographic economics
11Developed countries
12Developing countries
13Economic aspects
14Economic growth
15Economic policy
16Erwerbsbeteiligung
17Forecasts and trends
18Frau
19Humankapital
20Institution
21International aspects
22Internationaler Vergleich
23Investition
24J14
25J21
26J26
27Labor market
28Labour force
29labour-force participation
30Lebenserwartung
31Life expectancy
32O10
33O40
34OECD
35Older adults
36Population ageing
37Population aging
38Population dynamics
39Population economics
40Population growth
41Rentenalter
42Rentenpolitik
43Retirement age
44Socioeconomics
45Welt
46Wirtschaftspolitik
47Wirtschaftswachstum
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4Bevölkerungsentwicklung
5Bevölkerungsprognose
6Bevölkerungsstruktur
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8Bruttoinlandsprodukt
9Demografischer Wandel
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11Developed countries
12Developing countries
13Economic aspects
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15Economic policy
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17Forecasts and trends
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19Humankapital
20Institution
21International aspects
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25J21
26J26
27Labor market
28Labour force
29labour-force participation
30Lebenserwartung
31Life expectancy
32O10
33O40
34OECD
35Older adults
36Population ageing
37Population aging
38Population dynamics
39Population economics
40Population growth
41Rentenalter
42Rentenpolitik
43Retirement age
44Socioeconomics
45Welt
46Wirtschaftspolitik
47Wirtschaftswachstum
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1Canning, David
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atitleImplications of population ageing for economic growth
jtitleOxford Review of Economic Policy
date2010
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volume26
issue4
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pages583-612
issn0266-903X
eissn1460-2121
abstractThe share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during the period 2005 - 50. Population ageing will tend to lower both labour-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest - but not catastrophic - declines in the rate of economic growth. However, behavioural responses (including greater female labour-force participation) and policy reforms (including an increase in the legal age of retirement) can mitigate the economic consequences of an older population. In most non-OECD countries, declining fertility rates will cause labour-force-to-population ratios to rise as the shrinking share of young people will more than offset the skewing of adults towards the older ages. These factors suggest that population ageing will not significantly impede the pace of economic growth in developing countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku). Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: empirisch-quantitativ; empirisch; Querschnitt; prognostisch; Evaluation; anwendungsorientiert. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1950 bis 2050.
pubOxford University Press
doi10.1093/oxrep/grq038
oafree_for_read