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Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s

Background The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns.... Full description

Journal Title: Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979) 2014-07, Vol.68 (7), p.641-648
Main Author: Hajat, Shakoor
Other Authors: Vardoulakis, Sotiris , Heaviside, Clare , Eggen, Bernd
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
Age
Quelle: Alma/SFX Local Collection
Publisher: London: BMJ Publishing Group
ID: ISSN: 0143-005X
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title: Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
format: Article
creator:
  • Hajat, Shakoor
  • Vardoulakis, Sotiris
  • Heaviside, Clare
  • Eggen, Bernd
subjects:
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age
  • Age groups
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Aging
  • Analysis
  • Analytical forecasting
  • Biological and medical sciences
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Climate change
  • Climate Change - mortality
  • Climate models
  • Climatic changes
  • Cold
  • Cold Temperature - adverse effects
  • Death
  • Epidemiology
  • Forecasting
  • General aspects
  • Heat
  • Hot Temperature - adverse effects
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Influence
  • Medical sciences
  • Middle Aged
  • Miscellaneous
  • Mortality
  • Mortality - trends
  • Older adults
  • Older people
  • Outdoor air quality
  • Population
  • Population estimates
  • Public Health
  • Public health. Hygiene
  • Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
  • Regression Analysis
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk factors
  • Temperature effects
  • Trends
  • United Kingdom
  • United Kingdom - epidemiology
  • Weather
  • Young Adult
ispartof: Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979), 2014-07, Vol.68 (7), p.641-648
description: Background The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Methods Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. Results A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Conclusions Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.
language: eng
source: Alma/SFX Local Collection
identifier: ISSN: 0143-005X
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 0143-005X
  • 1470-2738
url: Link


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titleClimate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
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creatorHajat, Shakoor ; Vardoulakis, Sotiris ; Heaviside, Clare ; Eggen, Bernd
creatorcontribHajat, Shakoor ; Vardoulakis, Sotiris ; Heaviside, Clare ; Eggen, Bernd
descriptionBackground The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Methods Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. Results A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Conclusions Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.
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subjectAdolescent ; Adult ; Age ; Age groups ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Aging ; Analysis ; Analytical forecasting ; Biological and medical sciences ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate change ; Climate Change - mortality ; Climate models ; Climatic changes ; Cold ; Cold Temperature - adverse effects ; Death ; Epidemiology ; Forecasting ; General aspects ; Heat ; Hot Temperature - adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Influence ; Medical sciences ; Middle Aged ; Miscellaneous ; Mortality ; Mortality - trends ; Older adults ; Older people ; Outdoor air quality ; Population ; Population estimates ; Public Health ; Public health. Hygiene ; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine ; Regression Analysis ; Risk Assessment ; Risk factors ; Temperature effects ; Trends ; United Kingdom ; United Kingdom - epidemiology ; Weather ; Young Adult
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descriptionBackground The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Methods Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. Results A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Conclusions Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.
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jtitleJournal of epidemiology and community health (1979)
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atitleClimate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
jtitleJournal of epidemiology and community health (1979)
addtitleJ Epidemiol Community Health
date2014-07
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volume68
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abstractBackground The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Methods Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. Results A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Conclusions Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.
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