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Predicting the risk of physical disability in old age using modifiable mid-life risk factors

Background We aimed to investigate the relationship between potentially modifiable risk factors in middle age and disability after 13 years using the Framingham Offspring Study (FOS). We further aimed to develop a disability risk algorithm to estimate the risk of future disability for those aged 45–... Full description

Journal Title: Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979) 2015-01, Vol.69 (1), p.70-76
Main Author: Wong, Evelyn
Other Authors: Stevenson, Christopher , Backholer, Kathryn , Woodward, Mark , Shaw, Jonathan E , Peeters, Anna
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
Age
Quelle: Alma/SFX Local Collection
Publisher: England: BMJ Publishing Group
ID: ISSN: 0143-005X
Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25216667
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title: Predicting the risk of physical disability in old age using modifiable mid-life risk factors
format: Article
creator:
  • Wong, Evelyn
  • Stevenson, Christopher
  • Backholer, Kathryn
  • Woodward, Mark
  • Shaw, Jonathan E
  • Peeters, Anna
subjects:
  • Activities of Daily Living
  • Age
  • Aged
  • Aging
  • Algorithms
  • Australia - epidemiology
  • Blood pressure
  • Body Mass Index
  • Cause of Death - trends
  • Comorbidity
  • Diabetes
  • Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology
  • Disability
  • Disabled Persons - statistics & numerical data
  • Family medical history
  • Female
  • Health aspects
  • Health Behavior
  • Health risk assessment
  • Health Status
  • Humans
  • Hypertension
  • Logistic Models
  • Logistic regression
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Metabolic disorders
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality
  • Obesity
  • Obesity - epidemiology
  • Other topics
  • Population
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Assessment - methods
  • Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
  • Risk factors
  • Sex Distribution
  • Smoking - epidemiology
  • Triglycerides
  • Usage
ispartof: Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979), 2015-01, Vol.69 (1), p.70-76
description: Background We aimed to investigate the relationship between potentially modifiable risk factors in middle age and disability after 13 years using the Framingham Offspring Study (FOS). We further aimed to develop a disability risk algorithm to estimate the risk of future disability for those aged 45–65 years. Methods FOS is a longitudinal study. We used examination 5 (1991–1995; ‘baseline’) and examination 8 (2005–2008; ‘follow-up’). We included participants aged between 45–65 years at ‘baseline’ with complete predictor and outcome measures (n=2031; mean age 53.9 years). Predictors considered were body mass index, smoking, hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidaemia. We used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of disability or death.We assessed external validity using Australian data. Results By examination 8, 156 participants had disability and 198 had died. Disability was associated with smoking (OR (95% CI) 1.81 (1.18 to 2.78)); obesity (2.95 (1.83 to 4.77)); diabetes 1.96 (1.11 to 3.45) and being female (OR 1.67 (1.13 to 2.45). The model performed moderately well in predicting disability and death in an Australian population. Based on our algorithm, a 45-year-old man/woman with the combined risk factors of obesity, diabetes and smoking has similar likelihood of surviving free of disability to a 65-year-old man/woman without any of the same risk factors. Conclusions and relevance The derived risk algorithm allows, for the first time, quantification of the substantial combined impact on future disability of key modifiable risk factors in mid-life. Here we demonstrated the combined impact of obesity, diabetes and smoking to be similar to 20 years of aging.
language: eng
source: Alma/SFX Local Collection
identifier: ISSN: 0143-005X
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 0143-005X
  • 1470-2738
url: Link


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descriptionBackground We aimed to investigate the relationship between potentially modifiable risk factors in middle age and disability after 13 years using the Framingham Offspring Study (FOS). We further aimed to develop a disability risk algorithm to estimate the risk of future disability for those aged 45–65 years. Methods FOS is a longitudinal study. We used examination 5 (1991–1995; ‘baseline’) and examination 8 (2005–2008; ‘follow-up’). We included participants aged between 45–65 years at ‘baseline’ with complete predictor and outcome measures (n=2031; mean age 53.9 years). Predictors considered were body mass index, smoking, hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidaemia. We used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of disability or death.We assessed external validity using Australian data. Results By examination 8, 156 participants had disability and 198 had died. Disability was associated with smoking (OR (95% CI) 1.81 (1.18 to 2.78)); obesity (2.95 (1.83 to 4.77)); diabetes 1.96 (1.11 to 3.45) and being female (OR 1.67 (1.13 to 2.45). The model performed moderately well in predicting disability and death in an Australian population. Based on our algorithm, a 45-year-old man/woman with the combined risk factors of obesity, diabetes and smoking has similar likelihood of surviving free of disability to a 65-year-old man/woman without any of the same risk factors. Conclusions and relevance The derived risk algorithm allows, for the first time, quantification of the substantial combined impact on future disability of key modifiable risk factors in mid-life. Here we demonstrated the combined impact of obesity, diabetes and smoking to be similar to 20 years of aging.
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subjectActivities of Daily Living ; Age ; Aged ; Aging ; Algorithms ; Australia - epidemiology ; Blood pressure ; Body Mass Index ; Cause of Death - trends ; Comorbidity ; Diabetes ; Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology ; Disability ; Disabled Persons - statistics & numerical data ; Family medical history ; Female ; Health aspects ; Health Behavior ; Health risk assessment ; Health Status ; Humans ; Hypertension ; Logistic Models ; Logistic regression ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Metabolic disorders ; Middle Aged ; Mortality ; Obesity ; Obesity - epidemiology ; Other topics ; Population ; Reproducibility of Results ; Risk Assessment - methods ; Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data ; Risk factors ; Sex Distribution ; Smoking - epidemiology ; Triglycerides ; Usage
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descriptionBackground We aimed to investigate the relationship between potentially modifiable risk factors in middle age and disability after 13 years using the Framingham Offspring Study (FOS). We further aimed to develop a disability risk algorithm to estimate the risk of future disability for those aged 45–65 years. Methods FOS is a longitudinal study. We used examination 5 (1991–1995; ‘baseline’) and examination 8 (2005–2008; ‘follow-up’). We included participants aged between 45–65 years at ‘baseline’ with complete predictor and outcome measures (n=2031; mean age 53.9 years). Predictors considered were body mass index, smoking, hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidaemia. We used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of disability or death.We assessed external validity using Australian data. Results By examination 8, 156 participants had disability and 198 had died. Disability was associated with smoking (OR (95% CI) 1.81 (1.18 to 2.78)); obesity (2.95 (1.83 to 4.77)); diabetes 1.96 (1.11 to 3.45) and being female (OR 1.67 (1.13 to 2.45). The model performed moderately well in predicting disability and death in an Australian population. Based on our algorithm, a 45-year-old man/woman with the combined risk factors of obesity, diabetes and smoking has similar likelihood of surviving free of disability to a 65-year-old man/woman without any of the same risk factors. Conclusions and relevance The derived risk algorithm allows, for the first time, quantification of the substantial combined impact on future disability of key modifiable risk factors in mid-life. Here we demonstrated the combined impact of obesity, diabetes and smoking to be similar to 20 years of aging.
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38Smoking - epidemiology
39Triglycerides
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abstractBackground We aimed to investigate the relationship between potentially modifiable risk factors in middle age and disability after 13 years using the Framingham Offspring Study (FOS). We further aimed to develop a disability risk algorithm to estimate the risk of future disability for those aged 45–65 years. Methods FOS is a longitudinal study. We used examination 5 (1991–1995; ‘baseline’) and examination 8 (2005–2008; ‘follow-up’). We included participants aged between 45–65 years at ‘baseline’ with complete predictor and outcome measures (n=2031; mean age 53.9 years). Predictors considered were body mass index, smoking, hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidaemia. We used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of disability or death.We assessed external validity using Australian data. Results By examination 8, 156 participants had disability and 198 had died. Disability was associated with smoking (OR (95% CI) 1.81 (1.18 to 2.78)); obesity (2.95 (1.83 to 4.77)); diabetes 1.96 (1.11 to 3.45) and being female (OR 1.67 (1.13 to 2.45). The model performed moderately well in predicting disability and death in an Australian population. Based on our algorithm, a 45-year-old man/woman with the combined risk factors of obesity, diabetes and smoking has similar likelihood of surviving free of disability to a 65-year-old man/woman without any of the same risk factors. Conclusions and relevance The derived risk algorithm allows, for the first time, quantification of the substantial combined impact on future disability of key modifiable risk factors in mid-life. Here we demonstrated the combined impact of obesity, diabetes and smoking to be similar to 20 years of aging.
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