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How High is Hispanic/Mexican Fertility in the United States? Immigration and Tempo Considerations

In this article, I demonstrate that the apparently much higher fertility of Hispanic/Mexican women in the United States is almost exclusively the product of period estimates obtained for immigrant women and that period measures of immigrant fertility suffer from three serious sources of bias that to... Full description

Journal Title: Demography 2011-08-01, Vol.48 (3), p.1059-1080
Main Author: Parrado, Emilio A
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
Age
Publisher: Boston: Springer
ID: ISSN: 0070-3370
Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21695573
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recordid: cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_902358524
title: How High is Hispanic/Mexican Fertility in the United States? Immigration and Tempo Considerations
format: Article
creator:
  • Parrado, Emilio A
subjects:
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age
  • Aging
  • Analysis
  • Article
  • Assimilation
  • Bias
  • Birth Rate - ethnology
  • Birth Rate - trends
  • Births
  • Censuses
  • Children
  • Demographic aspects
  • Demography
  • Emigrants and Immigrants - statistics & numerical data
  • Emigration and immigration
  • Ethnicity
  • Female
  • Female fertility
  • Females
  • Fertility
  • Fertility rate
  • Fertility rates
  • general
  • Geography
  • Hispanic Americans
  • Hispanics
  • Human migration
  • Humans
  • Immigrant assimilation
  • Immigrant populations
  • Immigrants
  • Immigration
  • Medicine/Public Health
  • Mexican Americans - statistics & numerical data
  • Mexico
  • Mexico - ethnology
  • MIGRATION
  • Mothers
  • Noncitizens
  • Population
  • Population ageing
  • Population Dynamics
  • Population Economics
  • Population estimates
  • Population growth
  • Social Sciences
  • Sociology
  • Studies
  • U.S.A
  • United States - epidemiology
  • United States of America
  • Women
  • Young Adult
ispartof: Demography, 2011-08-01, Vol.48 (3), p.1059-1080
description: In this article, I demonstrate that the apparently much higher fertility of Hispanic/Mexican women in the United States is almost exclusively the product of period estimates obtained for immigrant women and that period measures of immigrant fertility suffer from three serious sources of bias that together significantly overstate fertility levels: difficulties in estimating the size of immigrant groups; the tendency for migration to occur at a particular stage in life; and, most importantly, the tendency for women to have a birth soon after migration. When these sources of bias are taken into consideration, the fertility of native Hispanic/Mexican women is very close to replacement level. In addition, the completed fertility of immigrant women in the United States is dramatically lower than the level obtained from period calculations. Findings are consistent with classical theories of immigrant assimilation but are a striking departure from the patterns found in previous studies and published statistics. The main implication is that without a significant change in immigration levels, current projections based on the premise of high Hispanic fertility are likely to considerably exaggerate Hispanic population growth, its impact on the ethnoracial profile of the country, and its potential to counteract population aging.
language: eng
source:
identifier: ISSN: 0070-3370
fulltext: no_fulltext
issn:
  • 0070-3370
  • 1533-7790
url: Link


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descriptionIn this article, I demonstrate that the apparently much higher fertility of Hispanic/Mexican women in the United States is almost exclusively the product of period estimates obtained for immigrant women and that period measures of immigrant fertility suffer from three serious sources of bias that together significantly overstate fertility levels: difficulties in estimating the size of immigrant groups; the tendency for migration to occur at a particular stage in life; and, most importantly, the tendency for women to have a birth soon after migration. When these sources of bias are taken into consideration, the fertility of native Hispanic/Mexican women is very close to replacement level. In addition, the completed fertility of immigrant women in the United States is dramatically lower than the level obtained from period calculations. Findings are consistent with classical theories of immigrant assimilation but are a striking departure from the patterns found in previous studies and published statistics. The main implication is that without a significant change in immigration levels, current projections based on the premise of high Hispanic fertility are likely to considerably exaggerate Hispanic population growth, its impact on the ethnoracial profile of the country, and its potential to counteract population aging.
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subjectAdolescent ; Adult ; Age ; Aging ; Analysis ; Article ; Assimilation ; Bias ; Birth Rate - ethnology ; Birth Rate - trends ; Births ; Censuses ; Children ; Demographic aspects ; Demography ; Emigrants and Immigrants - statistics & numerical data ; Emigration and immigration ; Ethnicity ; Female ; Female fertility ; Females ; Fertility ; Fertility rate ; Fertility rates ; general ; Geography ; Hispanic Americans ; Hispanics ; Human migration ; Humans ; Immigrant assimilation ; Immigrant populations ; Immigrants ; Immigration ; Medicine/Public Health ; Mexican Americans - statistics & numerical data ; Mexico ; Mexico - ethnology ; MIGRATION ; Mothers ; Noncitizens ; Population ; Population ageing ; Population Dynamics ; Population Economics ; Population estimates ; Population growth ; Social Sciences ; Sociology ; Studies ; U.S.A ; United States - epidemiology ; United States of America ; Women ; Young Adult
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descriptionIn this article, I demonstrate that the apparently much higher fertility of Hispanic/Mexican women in the United States is almost exclusively the product of period estimates obtained for immigrant women and that period measures of immigrant fertility suffer from three serious sources of bias that together significantly overstate fertility levels: difficulties in estimating the size of immigrant groups; the tendency for migration to occur at a particular stage in life; and, most importantly, the tendency for women to have a birth soon after migration. When these sources of bias are taken into consideration, the fertility of native Hispanic/Mexican women is very close to replacement level. In addition, the completed fertility of immigrant women in the United States is dramatically lower than the level obtained from period calculations. Findings are consistent with classical theories of immigrant assimilation but are a striking departure from the patterns found in previous studies and published statistics. The main implication is that without a significant change in immigration levels, current projections based on the premise of high Hispanic fertility are likely to considerably exaggerate Hispanic population growth, its impact on the ethnoracial profile of the country, and its potential to counteract population aging.
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abstractIn this article, I demonstrate that the apparently much higher fertility of Hispanic/Mexican women in the United States is almost exclusively the product of period estimates obtained for immigrant women and that period measures of immigrant fertility suffer from three serious sources of bias that together significantly overstate fertility levels: difficulties in estimating the size of immigrant groups; the tendency for migration to occur at a particular stage in life; and, most importantly, the tendency for women to have a birth soon after migration. When these sources of bias are taken into consideration, the fertility of native Hispanic/Mexican women is very close to replacement level. In addition, the completed fertility of immigrant women in the United States is dramatically lower than the level obtained from period calculations. Findings are consistent with classical theories of immigrant assimilation but are a striking departure from the patterns found in previous studies and published statistics. The main implication is that without a significant change in immigration levels, current projections based on the premise of high Hispanic fertility are likely to considerably exaggerate Hispanic population growth, its impact on the ethnoracial profile of the country, and its potential to counteract population aging.
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