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Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis

Summary Background During the past decade, renewed global and national efforts to combat malaria have led to ambitious goals. We aimed to provide an accurate assessment of the levels and time trends in malaria mortality to aid assessment of progress towards these goals and the focusing of future eff... Full description

Journal Title: The Lancet (British edition) 2012, Vol.379 (9814), p.413-431
Main Author: Murray, Christopher JL, Prof
Other Authors: Rosenfeld, Lisa C, AB , Lim, Stephen S, PhD , Andrews, Kathryn G, AB , Foreman, Kyle J, MPH , Haring, Diana, BSc , Fullman, Nancy, MPH , Naghavi, Mohsen, MD , Lozano, Rafael, Prof , Lopez, Alan D, Prof
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
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Quelle: Alma/SFX Local Collection
Publisher: Kidlington: Elsevier Ltd
ID: ISSN: 0140-6736
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title: Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis
format: Article
creator:
  • Murray, Christopher JL, Prof
  • Rosenfeld, Lisa C, AB
  • Lim, Stephen S, PhD
  • Andrews, Kathryn G, AB
  • Foreman, Kyle J, MPH
  • Haring, Diana, BSc
  • Fullman, Nancy, MPH
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, MD
  • Lozano, Rafael, Prof
  • Lopez, Alan D, Prof
subjects:
  • Abridged Index Medicus
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Australia
  • Biological and medical sciences
  • Causes of
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Databases
  • Epidemiology
  • Estimates
  • Female
  • Fever
  • General aspects
  • Global Health
  • Human protozoal diseases
  • Humans
  • Infectious diseases
  • Internal Medicine
  • Malaria
  • Malaria - mortality
  • Malaria - transmission
  • Male
  • Medical sciences
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality
  • Parasitic diseases
  • Prognosis
  • Protozoal diseases
  • Public health. Hygiene
  • Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
  • Reports
  • Studies
  • United States
  • Young Adult
ispartof: The Lancet (British edition), 2012, Vol.379 (9814), p.413-431
description: Summary Background During the past decade, renewed global and national efforts to combat malaria have led to ambitious goals. We aimed to provide an accurate assessment of the levels and time trends in malaria mortality to aid assessment of progress towards these goals and the focusing of future efforts. Methods We systematically collected all available data for malaria mortality for the period 1980–2010, correcting for misclassification bias. We developed a range of predictive models, including ensemble models, to estimate malaria mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. We used key predictors of malaria mortality such as Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence, first-line antimalarial drug resistance, and vector control. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the final model. Findings Global malaria deaths increased from 995 000 (95% uncertainty interval 711 000–1 412 000) in 1980 to a peak of 1 817 000 (1 430 000–2 366 000) in 2004, decreasing to 1 238 000 (929 000–1 685 000) in 2010. In Africa, malaria deaths increased from 493 000 (290 000–747 000) in 1980 to 1 613 000 (1 243 000–2 145 000) in 2004, decreasing by about 30% to 1 133 000 (848 000–1 591 000) in 2010. Outside of Africa, malaria deaths have steadily decreased from 502 000 (322 000–833 000) in 1980 to 104 000 (45 000–191 000) in 2010. We estimated more deaths in individuals aged 5 years or older than has been estimated in previous studies: 435 000 (307 000–658 000) deaths in Africa and 89 000 (33 000–177 000) deaths outside of Africa in 2010. Interpretation Our findings show that the malaria mortality burden is larger than previously estimated, especially in adults. There has been a rapid decrease in malaria mortality in Africa because of the scaling up of control activities supported by international donors. Donor support, however, needs to be increased if malaria elimination and eradication and broader health and development goals are to be met. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
language: eng
source: Alma/SFX Local Collection
identifier: ISSN: 0140-6736
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 0140-6736
  • 1474-547X
url: Link


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creatorMurray, Christopher JL, Prof ; Rosenfeld, Lisa C, AB ; Lim, Stephen S, PhD ; Andrews, Kathryn G, AB ; Foreman, Kyle J, MPH ; Haring, Diana, BSc ; Fullman, Nancy, MPH ; Naghavi, Mohsen, MD ; Lozano, Rafael, Prof ; Lopez, Alan D, Prof
creatorcontribMurray, Christopher JL, Prof ; Rosenfeld, Lisa C, AB ; Lim, Stephen S, PhD ; Andrews, Kathryn G, AB ; Foreman, Kyle J, MPH ; Haring, Diana, BSc ; Fullman, Nancy, MPH ; Naghavi, Mohsen, MD ; Lozano, Rafael, Prof ; Lopez, Alan D, Prof
descriptionSummary Background During the past decade, renewed global and national efforts to combat malaria have led to ambitious goals. We aimed to provide an accurate assessment of the levels and time trends in malaria mortality to aid assessment of progress towards these goals and the focusing of future efforts. Methods We systematically collected all available data for malaria mortality for the period 1980–2010, correcting for misclassification bias. We developed a range of predictive models, including ensemble models, to estimate malaria mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. We used key predictors of malaria mortality such as Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence, first-line antimalarial drug resistance, and vector control. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the final model. Findings Global malaria deaths increased from 995 000 (95% uncertainty interval 711 000–1 412 000) in 1980 to a peak of 1 817 000 (1 430 000–2 366 000) in 2004, decreasing to 1 238 000 (929 000–1 685 000) in 2010. In Africa, malaria deaths increased from 493 000 (290 000–747 000) in 1980 to 1 613 000 (1 243 000–2 145 000) in 2004, decreasing by about 30% to 1 133 000 (848 000–1 591 000) in 2010. Outside of Africa, malaria deaths have steadily decreased from 502 000 (322 000–833 000) in 1980 to 104 000 (45 000–191 000) in 2010. We estimated more deaths in individuals aged 5 years or older than has been estimated in previous studies: 435 000 (307 000–658 000) deaths in Africa and 89 000 (33 000–177 000) deaths outside of Africa in 2010. Interpretation Our findings show that the malaria mortality burden is larger than previously estimated, especially in adults. There has been a rapid decrease in malaria mortality in Africa because of the scaling up of control activities supported by international donors. Donor support, however, needs to be increased if malaria elimination and eradication and broader health and development goals are to be met. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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subjectAbridged Index Medicus ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Australia ; Biological and medical sciences ; Causes of ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Databases ; Epidemiology ; Estimates ; Female ; Fever ; General aspects ; Global Health ; Human protozoal diseases ; Humans ; Infectious diseases ; Internal Medicine ; Malaria ; Malaria - mortality ; Malaria - transmission ; Male ; Medical sciences ; Middle Aged ; Mortality ; Parasitic diseases ; Prognosis ; Protozoal diseases ; Public health. Hygiene ; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine ; Reports ; Studies ; United States ; Young Adult
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descriptionSummary Background During the past decade, renewed global and national efforts to combat malaria have led to ambitious goals. We aimed to provide an accurate assessment of the levels and time trends in malaria mortality to aid assessment of progress towards these goals and the focusing of future efforts. Methods We systematically collected all available data for malaria mortality for the period 1980–2010, correcting for misclassification bias. We developed a range of predictive models, including ensemble models, to estimate malaria mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. We used key predictors of malaria mortality such as Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence, first-line antimalarial drug resistance, and vector control. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the final model. Findings Global malaria deaths increased from 995 000 (95% uncertainty interval 711 000–1 412 000) in 1980 to a peak of 1 817 000 (1 430 000–2 366 000) in 2004, decreasing to 1 238 000 (929 000–1 685 000) in 2010. In Africa, malaria deaths increased from 493 000 (290 000–747 000) in 1980 to 1 613 000 (1 243 000–2 145 000) in 2004, decreasing by about 30% to 1 133 000 (848 000–1 591 000) in 2010. Outside of Africa, malaria deaths have steadily decreased from 502 000 (322 000–833 000) in 1980 to 104 000 (45 000–191 000) in 2010. We estimated more deaths in individuals aged 5 years or older than has been estimated in previous studies: 435 000 (307 000–658 000) deaths in Africa and 89 000 (33 000–177 000) deaths outside of Africa in 2010. Interpretation Our findings show that the malaria mortality burden is larger than previously estimated, especially in adults. There has been a rapid decrease in malaria mortality in Africa because of the scaling up of control activities supported by international donors. Donor support, however, needs to be increased if malaria elimination and eradication and broader health and development goals are to be met. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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titleGlobal malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis
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abstractSummary Background During the past decade, renewed global and national efforts to combat malaria have led to ambitious goals. We aimed to provide an accurate assessment of the levels and time trends in malaria mortality to aid assessment of progress towards these goals and the focusing of future efforts. Methods We systematically collected all available data for malaria mortality for the period 1980–2010, correcting for misclassification bias. We developed a range of predictive models, including ensemble models, to estimate malaria mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. We used key predictors of malaria mortality such as Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence, first-line antimalarial drug resistance, and vector control. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the final model. Findings Global malaria deaths increased from 995 000 (95% uncertainty interval 711 000–1 412 000) in 1980 to a peak of 1 817 000 (1 430 000–2 366 000) in 2004, decreasing to 1 238 000 (929 000–1 685 000) in 2010. In Africa, malaria deaths increased from 493 000 (290 000–747 000) in 1980 to 1 613 000 (1 243 000–2 145 000) in 2004, decreasing by about 30% to 1 133 000 (848 000–1 591 000) in 2010. Outside of Africa, malaria deaths have steadily decreased from 502 000 (322 000–833 000) in 1980 to 104 000 (45 000–191 000) in 2010. We estimated more deaths in individuals aged 5 years or older than has been estimated in previous studies: 435 000 (307 000–658 000) deaths in Africa and 89 000 (33 000–177 000) deaths outside of Africa in 2010. Interpretation Our findings show that the malaria mortality burden is larger than previously estimated, especially in adults. There has been a rapid decrease in malaria mortality in Africa because of the scaling up of control activities supported by international donors. Donor support, however, needs to be increased if malaria elimination and eradication and broader health and development goals are to be met. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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