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Stages of the cigarette epidemic on entering its second century

ObjectivesA four-stage model of the cigarette epidemic was proposed in 1994 to communicate the long delay between the widespread uptake of cigarette smoking and its full effects on mortality, as had been experienced in economically developed countries where cigarette smoking became entrenched decade... Full description

Journal Title: Tobacco Control 2012-03, Vol.21 (2), p.96-101
Main Author: Thun, Michael
Other Authors: Peto, Richard , Boreham, Jillian , Lopez, Alan D
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
Age
Men
Quelle: Alma/SFX Local Collection
Publisher: England: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd
ID: ISSN: 0964-4563
Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22345230
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recordid: cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_922500765
title: Stages of the cigarette epidemic on entering its second century
format: Article
creator:
  • Thun, Michael
  • Peto, Richard
  • Boreham, Jillian
  • Lopez, Alan D
subjects:
  • Adult
  • Age
  • Aged
  • Anti smoking movements
  • Causes of
  • Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
  • Cigarette smoking
  • Cigarettes
  • Control
  • Death
  • Developed Countries
  • Developing countries
  • Disease
  • Epidemics
  • Estimates
  • Female
  • Health aspects
  • Health risk assessment
  • Humans
  • Industrialized nations
  • LDCs
  • Lung cancer
  • Lung neoplasms
  • Lung Neoplasms - etiology
  • Lung Neoplasms - mortality
  • Male
  • Men
  • Middle age
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Biological
  • Mortality
  • Mortality - trends
  • Prevalence
  • Risk factors
  • Sex Factors
  • Smokers
  • Smoking
  • Smoking - adverse effects
  • Smoking - epidemiology
  • Smoking - trends
  • Smoking cessation
  • Smoking Prevention
  • The tobacco epidemic today
  • Tobacco
  • Tobacco habit
  • Tobacco smoking
  • Trends
  • Women
  • Womens health
  • Young adults
ispartof: Tobacco Control, 2012-03, Vol.21 (2), p.96-101
description: ObjectivesA four-stage model of the cigarette epidemic was proposed in 1994 to communicate the long delay between the widespread uptake of cigarette smoking and its full effects on mortality, as had been experienced in economically developed countries where cigarette smoking became entrenched decades earlier in men than in women. In the present work, the question of whether qualitative predictions from the model have matched recent trends in smoking and deaths from smoking in countries at various levels of economic development is assessed, and possible projections to the year 2025 are considered.MethodsThe proportion of all deaths attributed to tobacco was estimated indirectly for 41 high-resource and medium-resource countries from 1950 to the most recent year for which data were available, generally about 2005–2009. The trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in later middle age were then projected forward to 2025, based on recent trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in early middle age.ResultsIn developed countries the prevalence of smoking has continued to decrease in both sexes, although the rate of decrease has slowed and is less than that predicted by the original version of the model. Over the past 20 years the proportionate contribution of smoking to all deaths has decreased in men while continuing to increase or plateau among women. Although the proportion of all deaths at ages 35–69 that are attributed to smoking is still generally greater in men than in women, the male and female proportions are converging and will probably cross over in some high resource countries. Projections through to 2025 suggest that male and female smoking prevalence and smoking-attributed mortality will decrease in parallel in most developed countries towards lower limits that are not yet defined. In developing countries the model seems generally applicable to men but cannot predict whether or when women will begin smoking in large numbers. Modified criteria that describe the stages of the epidemic separately for men and women would be more generalisable to developing countries.ConclusionsThe four-stage model of the cigarette epidemic still provides a reasonably useful description in many developed countries. Its relevance to developing countries could be improved by describing the stages of the epidemic separately for men and women.
language: eng
source: Alma/SFX Local Collection
identifier: ISSN: 0964-4563
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 0964-4563
  • 1468-3318
url: Link


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titleStages of the cigarette epidemic on entering its second century
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creatorThun, Michael ; Peto, Richard ; Boreham, Jillian ; Lopez, Alan D
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descriptionObjectivesA four-stage model of the cigarette epidemic was proposed in 1994 to communicate the long delay between the widespread uptake of cigarette smoking and its full effects on mortality, as had been experienced in economically developed countries where cigarette smoking became entrenched decades earlier in men than in women. In the present work, the question of whether qualitative predictions from the model have matched recent trends in smoking and deaths from smoking in countries at various levels of economic development is assessed, and possible projections to the year 2025 are considered.MethodsThe proportion of all deaths attributed to tobacco was estimated indirectly for 41 high-resource and medium-resource countries from 1950 to the most recent year for which data were available, generally about 2005–2009. The trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in later middle age were then projected forward to 2025, based on recent trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in early middle age.ResultsIn developed countries the prevalence of smoking has continued to decrease in both sexes, although the rate of decrease has slowed and is less than that predicted by the original version of the model. Over the past 20 years the proportionate contribution of smoking to all deaths has decreased in men while continuing to increase or plateau among women. Although the proportion of all deaths at ages 35–69 that are attributed to smoking is still generally greater in men than in women, the male and female proportions are converging and will probably cross over in some high resource countries. Projections through to 2025 suggest that male and female smoking prevalence and smoking-attributed mortality will decrease in parallel in most developed countries towards lower limits that are not yet defined. In developing countries the model seems generally applicable to men but cannot predict whether or when women will begin smoking in large numbers. Modified criteria that describe the stages of the epidemic separately for men and women would be more generalisable to developing countries.ConclusionsThe four-stage model of the cigarette epidemic still provides a reasonably useful description in many developed countries. Its relevance to developing countries could be improved by describing the stages of the epidemic separately for men and women.
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subjectAdult ; Age ; Aged ; Anti smoking movements ; Causes of ; Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ; Cigarette smoking ; Cigarettes ; Control ; Death ; Developed Countries ; Developing countries ; Disease ; Epidemics ; Estimates ; Female ; Health aspects ; Health risk assessment ; Humans ; Industrialized nations ; LDCs ; Lung cancer ; Lung neoplasms ; Lung Neoplasms - etiology ; Lung Neoplasms - mortality ; Male ; Men ; Middle age ; Middle Aged ; Models, Biological ; Mortality ; Mortality - trends ; Prevalence ; Risk factors ; Sex Factors ; Smokers ; Smoking ; Smoking - adverse effects ; Smoking - epidemiology ; Smoking - trends ; Smoking cessation ; Smoking Prevention ; The tobacco epidemic today ; Tobacco ; Tobacco habit ; Tobacco smoking ; Trends ; Women ; Womens health ; Young adults
ispartofTobacco Control, 2012-03, Vol.21 (2), p.96-101
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descriptionObjectivesA four-stage model of the cigarette epidemic was proposed in 1994 to communicate the long delay between the widespread uptake of cigarette smoking and its full effects on mortality, as had been experienced in economically developed countries where cigarette smoking became entrenched decades earlier in men than in women. In the present work, the question of whether qualitative predictions from the model have matched recent trends in smoking and deaths from smoking in countries at various levels of economic development is assessed, and possible projections to the year 2025 are considered.MethodsThe proportion of all deaths attributed to tobacco was estimated indirectly for 41 high-resource and medium-resource countries from 1950 to the most recent year for which data were available, generally about 2005–2009. The trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in later middle age were then projected forward to 2025, based on recent trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in early middle age.ResultsIn developed countries the prevalence of smoking has continued to decrease in both sexes, although the rate of decrease has slowed and is less than that predicted by the original version of the model. Over the past 20 years the proportionate contribution of smoking to all deaths has decreased in men while continuing to increase or plateau among women. Although the proportion of all deaths at ages 35–69 that are attributed to smoking is still generally greater in men than in women, the male and female proportions are converging and will probably cross over in some high resource countries. Projections through to 2025 suggest that male and female smoking prevalence and smoking-attributed mortality will decrease in parallel in most developed countries towards lower limits that are not yet defined. In developing countries the model seems generally applicable to men but cannot predict whether or when women will begin smoking in large numbers. Modified criteria that describe the stages of the epidemic separately for men and women would be more generalisable to developing countries.ConclusionsThe four-stage model of the cigarette epidemic still provides a reasonably useful description in many developed countries. Its relevance to developing countries could be improved by describing the stages of the epidemic separately for men and women.
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13Epidemics
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21Lung cancer
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23Lung Neoplasms - etiology
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32Prevalence
33Risk factors
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38Smoking - epidemiology
39Smoking - trends
40Smoking cessation
41Smoking Prevention
42The tobacco epidemic today
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45Tobacco smoking
46Trends
47Women
48Womens health
49Young adults
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volume21
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pages96-101
issn0964-4563
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abstractObjectivesA four-stage model of the cigarette epidemic was proposed in 1994 to communicate the long delay between the widespread uptake of cigarette smoking and its full effects on mortality, as had been experienced in economically developed countries where cigarette smoking became entrenched decades earlier in men than in women. In the present work, the question of whether qualitative predictions from the model have matched recent trends in smoking and deaths from smoking in countries at various levels of economic development is assessed, and possible projections to the year 2025 are considered.MethodsThe proportion of all deaths attributed to tobacco was estimated indirectly for 41 high-resource and medium-resource countries from 1950 to the most recent year for which data were available, generally about 2005–2009. The trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in later middle age were then projected forward to 2025, based on recent trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in early middle age.ResultsIn developed countries the prevalence of smoking has continued to decrease in both sexes, although the rate of decrease has slowed and is less than that predicted by the original version of the model. Over the past 20 years the proportionate contribution of smoking to all deaths has decreased in men while continuing to increase or plateau among women. Although the proportion of all deaths at ages 35–69 that are attributed to smoking is still generally greater in men than in women, the male and female proportions are converging and will probably cross over in some high resource countries. Projections through to 2025 suggest that male and female smoking prevalence and smoking-attributed mortality will decrease in parallel in most developed countries towards lower limits that are not yet defined. In developing countries the model seems generally applicable to men but cannot predict whether or when women will begin smoking in large numbers. Modified criteria that describe the stages of the epidemic separately for men and women would be more generalisable to developing countries.ConclusionsThe four-stage model of the cigarette epidemic still provides a reasonably useful description in many developed countries. Its relevance to developing countries could be improved by describing the stages of the epidemic separately for men and women.
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pubBMJ Publishing Group Ltd
pmid22345230
doi10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2011-050294
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