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Spatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in east Africa

We sought to investigate the evolutionary and historical reasons for the different epidemiological patterns of HIV-1 in the early epidemic. In order to characterize the demographic history of HIV-1 subtypes A and D in east Africa, we examined molecular epidemiology, geographical and historical data.... Full description

Journal Title: AIDS (London) 2009, Vol.23 (14), p.F9-F17
Main Author: GRAY, Rebecca R
Other Authors: TATEM, Andrew J , GOODENOW, Maureen M , SALEMI, Marco , LAMERS, Susanna , WEI HOU , LAEYENDECKER, Oliver , SERWADDA, David , SEWANKAMBO, Nelson , GRAY, Ronald H , WAWER, Maria , QUINN, Thomas C
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
Publisher: Hagerstown, MD: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
ID: ISSN: 0269-9370
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recordid: cdi_pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_2742553
title: Spatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in east Africa
format: Article
creator:
  • GRAY, Rebecca R
  • TATEM, Andrew J
  • GOODENOW, Maureen M
  • SALEMI, Marco
  • LAMERS, Susanna
  • WEI HOU
  • LAEYENDECKER, Oliver
  • SERWADDA, David
  • SEWANKAMBO, Nelson
  • GRAY, Ronald H
  • WAWER, Maria
  • QUINN, Thomas C
subjects:
  • Africa
  • Africa, Eastern - epidemiology
  • AIDS/HIV
  • Article
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Biological and medical sciences
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Emigration and Immigration - statistics & numerical data
  • Emigration and Immigration - trends
  • epidemic
  • evolution
  • Evolution, Molecular
  • geographic information system
  • Geographic Information Systems
  • HIV Infections - epidemiology
  • HIV Infections - virology
  • HIV-1
  • HIV-1 - classification
  • HIV-1 - genetics
  • Human immunodeficiency virus 1
  • Human viral diseases
  • Humans
  • Immunodeficiencies
  • Immunodeficiencies. Immunoglobulinopathies
  • Immunopathology
  • Infectious diseases
  • Medical sciences
  • phylodynamics
  • Phylogeny
  • Population Growth
  • Viral diseases
  • Viral diseases of the lymphoid tissue and the blood. Aids
ispartof: AIDS (London), 2009, Vol.23 (14), p.F9-F17
description: We sought to investigate the evolutionary and historical reasons for the different epidemiological patterns of HIV-1 in the early epidemic. In order to characterize the demographic history of HIV-1 subtypes A and D in east Africa, we examined molecular epidemiology, geographical and historical data. We employed high-resolution phylodynamics to investigate the introduction of HIV-1A and D into east Africa, the geographic trends of viral spread, and the demographic growth of each subtype. We also used geographic information system data to investigate human migration trends, population growth, and human mobility. HIV-1A and D were introduced into east Africa after 1950 and spread exponentially during the 1970s, concurrent with eastward expansion. Spatiotemporal data failed to explain the establishment and spread of HIV based on urban population growth and migration. The low prevalence of the virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo before and after the emergence of the pandemic was, however, consistent with regional accessibility data, highlighting the difficulty in travel between major population centers in central Africa. In contrast, the strong interconnectivity between population centers across the east African region since colonial times has likely fostered the rapid growth of the epidemic in this locale. This study illustrates how phylodynamic analysis of pathogens informed by geospatial data can provide a more holistic and evidence-based interpretation of past epidemics. We advocate that this 'landscape phylodynamics' approach has the potential to provide a framework both to understand epidemics' spread and to design optimal intervention strategies.
language: eng
source:
identifier: ISSN: 0269-9370
fulltext: no_fulltext
issn:
  • 0269-9370
  • 1473-5571
url: Link


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titleSpatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in east Africa
creatorGRAY, Rebecca R ; TATEM, Andrew J ; GOODENOW, Maureen M ; SALEMI, Marco ; LAMERS, Susanna ; WEI HOU ; LAEYENDECKER, Oliver ; SERWADDA, David ; SEWANKAMBO, Nelson ; GRAY, Ronald H ; WAWER, Maria ; QUINN, Thomas C
creatorcontribGRAY, Rebecca R ; TATEM, Andrew J ; GOODENOW, Maureen M ; SALEMI, Marco ; LAMERS, Susanna ; WEI HOU ; LAEYENDECKER, Oliver ; SERWADDA, David ; SEWANKAMBO, Nelson ; GRAY, Ronald H ; WAWER, Maria ; QUINN, Thomas C
descriptionWe sought to investigate the evolutionary and historical reasons for the different epidemiological patterns of HIV-1 in the early epidemic. In order to characterize the demographic history of HIV-1 subtypes A and D in east Africa, we examined molecular epidemiology, geographical and historical data. We employed high-resolution phylodynamics to investigate the introduction of HIV-1A and D into east Africa, the geographic trends of viral spread, and the demographic growth of each subtype. We also used geographic information system data to investigate human migration trends, population growth, and human mobility. HIV-1A and D were introduced into east Africa after 1950 and spread exponentially during the 1970s, concurrent with eastward expansion. Spatiotemporal data failed to explain the establishment and spread of HIV based on urban population growth and migration. The low prevalence of the virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo before and after the emergence of the pandemic was, however, consistent with regional accessibility data, highlighting the difficulty in travel between major population centers in central Africa. In contrast, the strong interconnectivity between population centers across the east African region since colonial times has likely fostered the rapid growth of the epidemic in this locale. This study illustrates how phylodynamic analysis of pathogens informed by geospatial data can provide a more holistic and evidence-based interpretation of past epidemics. We advocate that this 'landscape phylodynamics' approach has the potential to provide a framework both to understand epidemics' spread and to design optimal intervention strategies.
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subjectAfrica ; Africa, Eastern - epidemiology ; AIDS/HIV ; Article ; Bayes Theorem ; Biological and medical sciences ; Disease Outbreaks ; Emigration and Immigration - statistics & numerical data ; Emigration and Immigration - trends ; epidemic ; evolution ; Evolution, Molecular ; geographic information system ; Geographic Information Systems ; HIV Infections - epidemiology ; HIV Infections - virology ; HIV-1 ; HIV-1 - classification ; HIV-1 - genetics ; Human immunodeficiency virus 1 ; Human viral diseases ; Humans ; Immunodeficiencies ; Immunodeficiencies. Immunoglobulinopathies ; Immunopathology ; Infectious diseases ; Medical sciences ; phylodynamics ; Phylogeny ; Population Growth ; Viral diseases ; Viral diseases of the lymphoid tissue and the blood. Aids
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descriptionWe sought to investigate the evolutionary and historical reasons for the different epidemiological patterns of HIV-1 in the early epidemic. In order to characterize the demographic history of HIV-1 subtypes A and D in east Africa, we examined molecular epidemiology, geographical and historical data. We employed high-resolution phylodynamics to investigate the introduction of HIV-1A and D into east Africa, the geographic trends of viral spread, and the demographic growth of each subtype. We also used geographic information system data to investigate human migration trends, population growth, and human mobility. HIV-1A and D were introduced into east Africa after 1950 and spread exponentially during the 1970s, concurrent with eastward expansion. Spatiotemporal data failed to explain the establishment and spread of HIV based on urban population growth and migration. The low prevalence of the virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo before and after the emergence of the pandemic was, however, consistent with regional accessibility data, highlighting the difficulty in travel between major population centers in central Africa. In contrast, the strong interconnectivity between population centers across the east African region since colonial times has likely fostered the rapid growth of the epidemic in this locale. This study illustrates how phylodynamic analysis of pathogens informed by geospatial data can provide a more holistic and evidence-based interpretation of past epidemics. We advocate that this 'landscape phylodynamics' approach has the potential to provide a framework both to understand epidemics' spread and to design optimal intervention strategies.
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titleSpatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in east Africa
authorGRAY, Rebecca R ; TATEM, Andrew J ; GOODENOW, Maureen M ; SALEMI, Marco ; LAMERS, Susanna ; WEI HOU ; LAEYENDECKER, Oliver ; SERWADDA, David ; SEWANKAMBO, Nelson ; GRAY, Ronald H ; WAWER, Maria ; QUINN, Thomas C
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29Population Growth
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abstractWe sought to investigate the evolutionary and historical reasons for the different epidemiological patterns of HIV-1 in the early epidemic. In order to characterize the demographic history of HIV-1 subtypes A and D in east Africa, we examined molecular epidemiology, geographical and historical data. We employed high-resolution phylodynamics to investigate the introduction of HIV-1A and D into east Africa, the geographic trends of viral spread, and the demographic growth of each subtype. We also used geographic information system data to investigate human migration trends, population growth, and human mobility. HIV-1A and D were introduced into east Africa after 1950 and spread exponentially during the 1970s, concurrent with eastward expansion. Spatiotemporal data failed to explain the establishment and spread of HIV based on urban population growth and migration. The low prevalence of the virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo before and after the emergence of the pandemic was, however, consistent with regional accessibility data, highlighting the difficulty in travel between major population centers in central Africa. In contrast, the strong interconnectivity between population centers across the east African region since colonial times has likely fostered the rapid growth of the epidemic in this locale. This study illustrates how phylodynamic analysis of pathogens informed by geospatial data can provide a more holistic and evidence-based interpretation of past epidemics. We advocate that this 'landscape phylodynamics' approach has the potential to provide a framework both to understand epidemics' spread and to design optimal intervention strategies.
copHagerstown, MD
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pmid19644346
doi10.1097/QAD.0b013e32832faf61
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