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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Summary Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quan... Full description

Journal Title: Lancet (London England) 2015, Vol.386 (9995), p.743-800
Main Author: Degenhardt, Louisa
Other Authors: Erskine, Holly , Ferrari, Alize J , Fitzmaurice, Christina , Graetz, Nicholas , Hansen, Gillian M , Laurie, Evan , Liang, Xiofeng , Ortblad, Katrina , Sandar, Logan , Abraham, Jerry P , Abraham, Biju , Abubakar, Ibrahim , Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME , Achoki, Tom , Ademi, Zanfina , Alam, Sayed Saidul , Albittar, Mohammed I , Alemu, Zewdie A , Alla, Francois , Anderson, Benjamin O , Antonio, Carl Abelardo T , Balalla, Shivanthi , Barquera, Simon , Basu, Sanjay , Basu, Arindam , Beghi, Ettore , Bell, Michelle L , Bensenor, Isabela M , Borges, Guilherme , Boyers, Lindsay N , Briggs, Adam DM , Buchbinder, Rachelle , Burnett, Richard , Campuzano, Julio C , Catala-Lopez, Ferran , Chang, Jung-Chen , Christophi, Costas A , Dandona, Lalit , Deribe, Kebede , Fay, Derek FJ , Fowkes, F Gerry R , Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A , Gibney, Katherine B , Gona, Philimon , Gouda, Hebe N , Hagan, Holly , Pi, Ileana B Heredia , Hoy, Damian G , Huang, John J , Husseini, Abdullatif , Jonas, Jost B , Karimkhani, Chante , Khan, Gulfaraz , Kieling, Christian , Knibbs, Luke , Lan, Qing , Lim, Stephen , Lind, Margaret , Lindsay, M Patrice , Lipshultz, Steven E , Low, Nicola , Lyons, Ronan A , Mackay, Mark T , Malekzadeh, Reza , Mapoma, Christopher C , McKee, Martin , Mehndiratta, Man Mohan , Miller, Ted R , Mills, Edward J , Moturi, Wilkister N , Moyer, Madeline , Naghavi, Paria , Nand, Devina , Ng, Marie , Nhung, Nguyen T , Norrving, Bo , Nyakarahuka, Luke , Pereira, David M , Peterson, Carrie B , Remuzzi, Giuseppe , Riccio, Patricia M , Richardson, Lee , Rojas-Rueda, David , Scarborough, Peter , Seedat, Soraya , Shackelford, Katya , She, Jun , Shibuya, Kenji , Shinohara, Yukito , Sindi, Shireen , Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos , Thomas, Elissa , Thrift, Amanda G , Traebert, Jefferson , Wilkinson, James D , Woldeyohannes, Solomon M , Xu, Gelin , Yentur, Gokalp K , Zhang, Yong
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
Age
HIV
Quelle: Alma/SFX Local Collection
Publisher: England: Elsevier Ltd
ID: ISSN: 0140-6736
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recordid: cdi_wageningen_narcis_oai_library_wur_nl_wurpubs_493100
title: Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
format: Article
creator:
  • Degenhardt, Louisa
  • Erskine, Holly
  • Ferrari, Alize J
  • Fitzmaurice, Christina
  • Graetz, Nicholas
  • Hansen, Gillian M
  • Laurie, Evan
  • Liang, Xiofeng
  • Ortblad, Katrina
  • Sandar, Logan
  • Abraham, Jerry P
  • Abraham, Biju
  • Abubakar, Ibrahim
  • Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME
  • Achoki, Tom
  • Ademi, Zanfina
  • Alam, Sayed Saidul
  • Albittar, Mohammed I
  • Alemu, Zewdie A
  • Alla, Francois
  • Anderson, Benjamin O
  • Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
  • Balalla, Shivanthi
  • Barquera, Simon
  • Basu, Sanjay
  • Basu, Arindam
  • Beghi, Ettore
  • Bell, Michelle L
  • Bensenor, Isabela M
  • Borges, Guilherme
  • Boyers, Lindsay N
  • Briggs, Adam DM
  • Buchbinder, Rachelle
  • Burnett, Richard
  • Campuzano, Julio C
  • Catala-Lopez, Ferran
  • Chang, Jung-Chen
  • Christophi, Costas A
  • Dandona, Lalit
  • Deribe, Kebede
  • Fay, Derek FJ
  • Fowkes, F Gerry R
  • Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A
  • Gibney, Katherine B
  • Gona, Philimon
  • Gouda, Hebe N
  • Hagan, Holly
  • Pi, Ileana B Heredia
  • Hoy, Damian G
  • Huang, John J
  • Husseini, Abdullatif
  • Jonas, Jost B
  • Karimkhani, Chante
  • Khan, Gulfaraz
  • Kieling, Christian
  • Knibbs, Luke
  • Lan, Qing
  • Lim, Stephen
  • Lind, Margaret
  • Lindsay, M Patrice
  • Lipshultz, Steven E
  • Low, Nicola
  • Lyons, Ronan A
  • Mackay, Mark T
  • Malekzadeh, Reza
  • Mapoma, Christopher C
  • McKee, Martin
  • Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
  • Miller, Ted R
  • Mills, Edward J
  • Moturi, Wilkister N
  • Moyer, Madeline
  • Naghavi, Paria
  • Nand, Devina
  • Ng, Marie
  • Nhung, Nguyen T
  • Norrving, Bo
  • Nyakarahuka, Luke
  • Pereira, David M
  • Peterson, Carrie B
  • Remuzzi, Giuseppe
  • Riccio, Patricia M
  • Richardson, Lee
  • Rojas-Rueda, David
  • Scarborough, Peter
  • Seedat, Soraya
  • Shackelford, Katya
  • She, Jun
  • Shibuya, Kenji
  • Shinohara, Yukito
  • Sindi, Shireen
  • Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos
  • Thomas, Elissa
  • Thrift, Amanda G
  • Traebert, Jefferson
  • Wilkinson, James D
  • Woldeyohannes, Solomon M
  • Xu, Gelin
  • Yentur, Gokalp K
  • Zhang, Yong
subjects:
  • Acute Disease
  • Acute Disease - epidemiology
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age
  • Age Distribution
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Alcohol dependence
  • Analysis
  • Annan medicin och hälsovetenskap
  • Article
  • Attention deficit
  • Chair Nutrition and Disease
  • Charities
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Chronic Disease
  • Chronic Disease - epidemiology
  • Chronic diseases
  • Comorbidity
  • Conduct disorder
  • Cost of Illness
  • Cutaneous Leishmaniasis
  • deficiency
  • Developed Countries
  • Developed Countries - statistics & numerical data
  • Developing Countries
  • Developing Countries - statistics & numerical data
  • Disabled Persons
  • Disabled Persons - statistics & numerical data
  • Disease
  • Disorders
  • Epidemiology
  • Estimates
  • Female
  • Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
  • General & Internal
  • General & Internal Medicine
  • Gerontologi, medicinsk/hälsovetenskaplig inriktning
  • Gerontology, specialising in Medical and Health Sciences
  • Global Health
  • Global Health - statistics & numerical data
  • Headache
  • Health
  • Health outcomes
  • Health policy
  • Health Sciences
  • HIV
  • HNE Nutrition and Disease
  • HNE Voeding en Ziekte
  • Human immunodeficiency virus
  • Humans
  • Hyperactivity disorder
  • Hälsovetenskap
  • Hälsovetenskaper
  • Incidence
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Infectious diseases
  • Injuries
  • injury
  • Injury analysis
  • Internal Medicine
  • Iron
  • Life Sciences
  • Life Sciences & Biomedicine
  • Male
  • Mathematical analysis
  • media
  • Medical and Health Sciences
  • Medical research
  • Medicin och hälsovetenskap
  • Medicine
  • Medicine(all)
  • Medicine, Experimental
  • Mental
  • Mental depression
  • Mental disorders
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality
  • Neglected Diseases
  • Neglected Diseases - epidemiology
  • Neurological diseases
  • Newborn
  • Nutrition and Disease
  • Nüfus Etütleri
  • Other Medical Sciences
  • Otitis
  • over
  • Pain
  • Population growth
  • Preschool
  • Prevalence
  • Prevalence studies (Epidemiology)
  • Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
  • Regression analysis
  • Residence Characteristics
  • Residence Characteristics - statistics & numerical data
  • Respiratory diseases
  • Santé publique et épidémiologie
  • Science & Technology
  • Sex Distribution
  • Trends
  • Upgrading
  • VLAG
  • Voeding en Ziekte
  • Weights
  • Wounds
  • Wounds and Injuries
  • Wounds and Injuries - epidemiology
  • YLDs
  • Young Adult
ispartof: Lancet (London England), 2015, Vol.386 (9995), p.743-800
description: Summary Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000
language: eng
source: Alma/SFX Local Collection
identifier: ISSN: 0140-6736
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 0140-6736
  • 1474-547X
  • 1474-547X
url: Link


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titleGlobal, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
sourceAlma/SFX Local Collection
creatorDegenhardt, Louisa ; Erskine, Holly ; Ferrari, Alize J ; Fitzmaurice, Christina ; Graetz, Nicholas ; Hansen, Gillian M ; Laurie, Evan ; Liang, Xiofeng ; Ortblad, Katrina ; Sandar, Logan ; Abraham, Jerry P ; Abraham, Biju ; Abubakar, Ibrahim ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME ; Achoki, Tom ; Ademi, Zanfina ; Alam, Sayed Saidul ; Albittar, Mohammed I ; Alemu, Zewdie A ; Alla, Francois ; Anderson, Benjamin O ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Balalla, Shivanthi ; Barquera, Simon ; Basu, Sanjay ; Basu, Arindam ; Beghi, Ettore ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Borges, Guilherme ; Boyers, Lindsay N ; Briggs, Adam DM ; Buchbinder, Rachelle ; Burnett, Richard ; Campuzano, Julio C ; Catala-Lopez, Ferran ; Chang, Jung-Chen ; Christophi, Costas A ; Dandona, Lalit ; Deribe, Kebede ; Fay, Derek FJ ; Fowkes, F Gerry R ; Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A ; Gibney, Katherine B ; Gona, Philimon ; Gouda, Hebe N ; Hagan, Holly ; Pi, Ileana B Heredia ; Hoy, Damian G ; Huang, John J ; Husseini, Abdullatif ; Jonas, Jost B ; Karimkhani, Chante ; Khan, Gulfaraz ; Kieling, Christian ; Knibbs, Luke ; Lan, Qing ; Lim, Stephen ; Lind, Margaret ; Lindsay, M Patrice ; Lipshultz, Steven E ; Low, Nicola ; Lyons, Ronan A ; Mackay, Mark T ; Malekzadeh, Reza ; Mapoma, Christopher C ; McKee, Martin ; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan ; Miller, Ted R ; Mills, Edward J ; Moturi, Wilkister N ; Moyer, Madeline ; Naghavi, Paria ; Nand, Devina ; Ng, Marie ; Nhung, Nguyen T ; Norrving, Bo ; Nyakarahuka, Luke ; Pereira, David M ; Peterson, Carrie B ; Remuzzi, Giuseppe ; Riccio, Patricia M ; Richardson, Lee ; Rojas-Rueda, David ; Scarborough, Peter ; Seedat, Soraya ; Shackelford, Katya ; She, Jun ; Shibuya, Kenji ; Shinohara, Yukito ; Sindi, Shireen ; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos ; Thomas, Elissa ; Thrift, Amanda G ; Traebert, Jefferson ; Wilkinson, James D ; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M ; Xu, Gelin ; Yentur, Gokalp K ; Zhang, Yong
creatorcontribDegenhardt, Louisa ; Erskine, Holly ; Ferrari, Alize J ; Fitzmaurice, Christina ; Graetz, Nicholas ; Hansen, Gillian M ; Laurie, Evan ; Liang, Xiofeng ; Ortblad, Katrina ; Sandar, Logan ; Abraham, Jerry P ; Abraham, Biju ; Abubakar, Ibrahim ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME ; Achoki, Tom ; Ademi, Zanfina ; Alam, Sayed Saidul ; Albittar, Mohammed I ; Alemu, Zewdie A ; Alla, Francois ; Anderson, Benjamin O ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Balalla, Shivanthi ; Barquera, Simon ; Basu, Sanjay ; Basu, Arindam ; Beghi, Ettore ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Borges, Guilherme ; Boyers, Lindsay N ; Briggs, Adam DM ; Buchbinder, Rachelle ; Burnett, Richard ; Campuzano, Julio C ; Catala-Lopez, Ferran ; Chang, Jung-Chen ; Christophi, Costas A ; Dandona, Lalit ; Deribe, Kebede ; Fay, Derek FJ ; Fowkes, F Gerry R ; Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A ; Gibney, Katherine B ; Gona, Philimon ; Gouda, Hebe N ; Hagan, Holly ; Pi, Ileana B Heredia ; Hoy, Damian G ; Huang, John J ; Husseini, Abdullatif ; Jonas, Jost B ; Karimkhani, Chante ; Khan, Gulfaraz ; Kieling, Christian ; Knibbs, Luke ; Lan, Qing ; Lim, Stephen ; Lind, Margaret ; Lindsay, M Patrice ; Lipshultz, Steven E ; Low, Nicola ; Lyons, Ronan A ; Mackay, Mark T ; Malekzadeh, Reza ; Mapoma, Christopher C ; McKee, Martin ; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan ; Miller, Ted R ; Mills, Edward J ; Moturi, Wilkister N ; Moyer, Madeline ; Naghavi, Paria ; Nand, Devina ; Ng, Marie ; Nhung, Nguyen T ; Norrving, Bo ; Nyakarahuka, Luke ; Pereira, David M ; Peterson, Carrie B ; Remuzzi, Giuseppe ; Riccio, Patricia M ; Richardson, Lee ; Rojas-Rueda, David ; Scarborough, Peter ; Seedat, Soraya ; Shackelford, Katya ; She, Jun ; Shibuya, Kenji ; Shinohara, Yukito ; Sindi, Shireen ; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos ; Thomas, Elissa ; Thrift, Amanda G ; Traebert, Jefferson ; Wilkinson, James D ; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M ; Xu, Gelin ; Yentur, Gokalp K ; Zhang, Yong ; Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Collaborators ; Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för samhällsmedicin och folkhälsa ; Göteborgs universitet ; Gothenburg University ; Institute of Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine ; Sahlgrenska Academy ; Akademistatistik ; Sahlgrenska akademin ; Centre for Applied Biostatistics
descriptionSummary Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
identifier
0ISSN: 0140-6736
1ISSN: 1474-547X
2EISSN: 1474-547X
3DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4
4PMID: 26063472
languageeng
publisherEngland: Elsevier Ltd
subject
ispartofLancet (London England), 2015, Vol.386 (9995), p.743-800
rights
0Elsevier Ltd
12015 Elsevier Ltd
2info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
3Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
4COPYRIGHT 2015 Elsevier B.V.
5Copyright Elsevier Limited Aug 22, 2015
6Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
7Wageningen University & Research
lds50peer_reviewed
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creatorcontrib
0Degenhardt, Louisa
1Erskine, Holly
2Ferrari, Alize J
3Fitzmaurice, Christina
4Graetz, Nicholas
5Hansen, Gillian M
6Laurie, Evan
7Liang, Xiofeng
8Ortblad, Katrina
9Sandar, Logan
10Abraham, Jerry P
11Abraham, Biju
12Abubakar, Ibrahim
13Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME
14Achoki, Tom
15Ademi, Zanfina
16Alam, Sayed Saidul
17Albittar, Mohammed I
18Alemu, Zewdie A
19Alla, Francois
20Anderson, Benjamin O
21Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
22Balalla, Shivanthi
23Barquera, Simon
24Basu, Sanjay
25Basu, Arindam
26Beghi, Ettore
27Bell, Michelle L
28Bensenor, Isabela M
29Borges, Guilherme
30Boyers, Lindsay N
31Briggs, Adam DM
32Buchbinder, Rachelle
33Burnett, Richard
34Campuzano, Julio C
35Catala-Lopez, Ferran
36Chang, Jung-Chen
37Christophi, Costas A
38Dandona, Lalit
39Deribe, Kebede
40Fay, Derek FJ
41Fowkes, F Gerry R
42Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A
43Gibney, Katherine B
44Gona, Philimon
45Gouda, Hebe N
46Hagan, Holly
47Pi, Ileana B Heredia
48Hoy, Damian G
49Huang, John J
50Husseini, Abdullatif
51Jonas, Jost B
52Karimkhani, Chante
53Khan, Gulfaraz
54Kieling, Christian
55Knibbs, Luke
56Lan, Qing
57Lim, Stephen
58Lind, Margaret
59Lindsay, M Patrice
60Lipshultz, Steven E
61Low, Nicola
62Lyons, Ronan A
63Mackay, Mark T
64Malekzadeh, Reza
65Mapoma, Christopher C
66McKee, Martin
67Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
68Miller, Ted R
69Mills, Edward J
70Moturi, Wilkister N
71Moyer, Madeline
72Naghavi, Paria
73Nand, Devina
74Ng, Marie
75Nhung, Nguyen T
76Norrving, Bo
77Nyakarahuka, Luke
78Pereira, David M
79Peterson, Carrie B
80Remuzzi, Giuseppe
81Riccio, Patricia M
82Richardson, Lee
83Rojas-Rueda, David
84Scarborough, Peter
85Seedat, Soraya
86Shackelford, Katya
87She, Jun
88Shibuya, Kenji
89Shinohara, Yukito
90Sindi, Shireen
91Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos
92Thomas, Elissa
93Thrift, Amanda G
94Traebert, Jefferson
95Wilkinson, James D
96Woldeyohannes, Solomon M
97Xu, Gelin
98Yentur, Gokalp K
99Zhang, Yong
100Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Collaborators
101Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för samhällsmedicin och folkhälsa
102Göteborgs universitet
103Gothenburg University
104Institute of Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine
105Sahlgrenska Academy
106Akademistatistik
107Sahlgrenska akademin
108Centre for Applied Biostatistics
title
0Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
1Lancet (London England)
addtitleLancet
descriptionSummary Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
subject
0Acute Disease
1Acute Disease - epidemiology
2Adolescent
3Adult
4Age
5Age Distribution
6Aged
7Aged, 80 and over
8Alcohol dependence
9Analysis
10Annan medicin och hälsovetenskap
11Article
12Attention deficit
13Chair Nutrition and Disease
14Charities
15Child
16Child, Preschool
17Chronic Disease
18Chronic Disease - epidemiology
19Chronic diseases
20Comorbidity
21Conduct disorder
22Cost of Illness
23Cutaneous Leishmaniasis
24deficiency
25Developed Countries
26Developed Countries - statistics & numerical data
27Developing Countries
28Developing Countries - statistics & numerical data
29Disabled Persons
30Disabled Persons - statistics & numerical data
31Disease
32Disorders
33Epidemiology
34Estimates
35Female
36Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
37General & Internal
38General & Internal Medicine
39Gerontologi, medicinsk/hälsovetenskaplig inriktning
40Gerontology, specialising in Medical and Health Sciences
41Global Health
42Global Health - statistics & numerical data
43Headache
44Health
45Health outcomes
46Health policy
47Health Sciences
48HIV
49HNE Nutrition and Disease
50HNE Voeding en Ziekte
51Human immunodeficiency virus
52Humans
53Hyperactivity disorder
54Hälsovetenskap
55Hälsovetenskaper
56Incidence
57Infant
58Infant, Newborn
59Infectious diseases
60Injuries
61injury
62Injury analysis
63Internal Medicine
64Iron
65Life Sciences
66Life Sciences & Biomedicine
67Male
68Mathematical analysis
69media
70Medical and Health Sciences
71Medical research
72Medicin och hälsovetenskap
73Medicine
74Medicine(all)
75Medicine, Experimental
76Mental
77Mental depression
78Mental disorders
79Middle Aged
80Mortality
81Neglected Diseases
82Neglected Diseases - epidemiology
83Neurological diseases
84Newborn
85Nutrition and Disease
86Nüfus Etütleri
87Other Medical Sciences
88Otitis
89over
90Pain
91Population growth
92Preschool
93Prevalence
94Prevalence studies (Epidemiology)
95Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
96Regression analysis
97Residence Characteristics
98Residence Characteristics - statistics & numerical data
99Respiratory diseases
100Santé publique et épidémiologie
101Science & Technology
102Sex Distribution
103Trends
104Upgrading
105VLAG
106Voeding en Ziekte
107Weights
108Wounds
109Wounds and Injuries
110Wounds and Injuries - epidemiology
111YLDs
112Young Adult
issn
00140-6736
11474-547X
21474-547X
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0Degenhardt, Louisa
1Erskine, Holly
2Ferrari, Alize J
3Fitzmaurice, Christina
4Graetz, Nicholas
5Hansen, Gillian M
6Laurie, Evan
7Liang, Xiofeng
8Ortblad, Katrina
9Sandar, Logan
10Abraham, Jerry P
11Abraham, Biju
12Abubakar, Ibrahim
13Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME
14Achoki, Tom
15Ademi, Zanfina
16Alam, Sayed Saidul
17Albittar, Mohammed I
18Alemu, Zewdie A
19Alla, Francois
20Anderson, Benjamin O
21Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
22Balalla, Shivanthi
23Barquera, Simon
24Basu, Sanjay
25Basu, Arindam
26Beghi, Ettore
27Bell, Michelle L
28Bensenor, Isabela M
29Borges, Guilherme
30Boyers, Lindsay N
31Briggs, Adam DM
32Buchbinder, Rachelle
33Burnett, Richard
34Campuzano, Julio C
35Catala-Lopez, Ferran
36Chang, Jung-Chen
37Christophi, Costas A
38Dandona, Lalit
39Deribe, Kebede
40Fay, Derek FJ
41Fowkes, F Gerry R
42Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A
43Gibney, Katherine B
44Gona, Philimon
45Gouda, Hebe N
46Hagan, Holly
47Pi, Ileana B Heredia
48Hoy, Damian G
49Huang, John J
50Husseini, Abdullatif
51Jonas, Jost B
52Karimkhani, Chante
53Khan, Gulfaraz
54Kieling, Christian
55Knibbs, Luke
56Lan, Qing
57Lim, Stephen
58Lind, Margaret
59Lindsay, M Patrice
60Lipshultz, Steven E
61Low, Nicola
62Lyons, Ronan A
63Mackay, Mark T
64Malekzadeh, Reza
65Mapoma, Christopher C
66McKee, Martin
67Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
68Miller, Ted R
69Mills, Edward J
70Moturi, Wilkister N
71Moyer, Madeline
72Naghavi, Paria
73Nand, Devina
74Ng, Marie
75Nhung, Nguyen T
76Norrving, Bo
77Nyakarahuka, Luke
78Pereira, David M
79Peterson, Carrie B
80Remuzzi, Giuseppe
81Riccio, Patricia M
82Richardson, Lee
83Rojas-Rueda, David
84Scarborough, Peter
85Seedat, Soraya
86Shackelford, Katya
87She, Jun
88Shibuya, Kenji
89Shinohara, Yukito
90Sindi, Shireen
91Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos
92Thomas, Elissa
93Thrift, Amanda G
94Traebert, Jefferson
95Wilkinson, James D
96Woldeyohannes, Solomon M
97Xu, Gelin
98Yentur, Gokalp K
99Zhang, Yong
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titleGlobal, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
authorDegenhardt, Louisa ; Erskine, Holly ; Ferrari, Alize J ; Fitzmaurice, Christina ; Graetz, Nicholas ; Hansen, Gillian M ; Laurie, Evan ; Liang, Xiofeng ; Ortblad, Katrina ; Sandar, Logan ; Abraham, Jerry P ; Abraham, Biju ; Abubakar, Ibrahim ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME ; Achoki, Tom ; Ademi, Zanfina ; Alam, Sayed Saidul ; Albittar, Mohammed I ; Alemu, Zewdie A ; Alla, Francois ; Anderson, Benjamin O ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Balalla, Shivanthi ; Barquera, Simon ; Basu, Sanjay ; Basu, Arindam ; Beghi, Ettore ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Borges, Guilherme ; Boyers, Lindsay N ; Briggs, Adam DM ; Buchbinder, Rachelle ; Burnett, Richard ; Campuzano, Julio C ; Catala-Lopez, Ferran ; Chang, Jung-Chen ; Christophi, Costas A ; Dandona, Lalit ; Deribe, Kebede ; Fay, Derek FJ ; Fowkes, F Gerry R ; Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A ; Gibney, Katherine B ; Gona, Philimon ; Gouda, Hebe N ; Hagan, Holly ; Pi, Ileana B Heredia ; Hoy, Damian G ; Huang, John J ; Husseini, Abdullatif ; Jonas, Jost B ; Karimkhani, Chante ; Khan, Gulfaraz ; Kieling, Christian ; Knibbs, Luke ; Lan, Qing ; Lim, Stephen ; Lind, Margaret ; Lindsay, M Patrice ; Lipshultz, Steven E ; Low, Nicola ; Lyons, Ronan A ; Mackay, Mark T ; Malekzadeh, Reza ; Mapoma, Christopher C ; McKee, Martin ; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan ; Miller, Ted R ; Mills, Edward J ; Moturi, Wilkister N ; Moyer, Madeline ; Naghavi, Paria ; Nand, Devina ; Ng, Marie ; Nhung, Nguyen T ; Norrving, Bo ; Nyakarahuka, Luke ; Pereira, David M ; Peterson, Carrie B ; Remuzzi, Giuseppe ; Riccio, Patricia M ; Richardson, Lee ; Rojas-Rueda, David ; Scarborough, Peter ; Seedat, Soraya ; Shackelford, Katya ; She, Jun ; Shibuya, Kenji ; Shinohara, Yukito ; Sindi, Shireen ; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos ; Thomas, Elissa ; Thrift, Amanda G ; Traebert, Jefferson ; Wilkinson, James D ; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M ; Xu, Gelin ; Yentur, Gokalp K ; Zhang, Yong
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languageeng
creationdate2015
topic
0Acute Disease
1Acute Disease - epidemiology
2Adolescent
3Adult
4Age
5Age Distribution
6Aged
7Aged, 80 and over
8Alcohol dependence
9Analysis
10Annan medicin och hälsovetenskap
11Article
12Attention deficit
13Chair Nutrition and Disease
14Charities
15Child
16Child, Preschool
17Chronic Disease
18Chronic Disease - epidemiology
19Chronic diseases
20Comorbidity
21Conduct disorder
22Cost of Illness
23Cutaneous Leishmaniasis
24deficiency
25Developed Countries
26Developed Countries - statistics & numerical data
27Developing Countries
28Developing Countries - statistics & numerical data
29Disabled Persons
30Disabled Persons - statistics & numerical data
31Disease
32Disorders
33Epidemiology
34Estimates
35Female
36Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
37General & Internal
38General & Internal Medicine
39Gerontologi, medicinsk/hälsovetenskaplig inriktning
40Gerontology, specialising in Medical and Health Sciences
41Global Health
42Global Health - statistics & numerical data
43Headache
44Health
45Health outcomes
46Health policy
47Health Sciences
48HIV
49HNE Nutrition and Disease
50HNE Voeding en Ziekte
51Human immunodeficiency virus
52Humans
53Hyperactivity disorder
54Hälsovetenskap
55Hälsovetenskaper
56Incidence
57Infant
58Infant, Newborn
59Infectious diseases
60Injuries
61injury
62Injury analysis
63Internal Medicine
64Iron
65Life Sciences
66Life Sciences & Biomedicine
67Male
68Mathematical analysis
69media
70Medical and Health Sciences
71Medical research
72Medicin och hälsovetenskap
73Medicine
74Medicine(all)
75Medicine, Experimental
76Mental
77Mental depression
78Mental disorders
79Middle Aged
80Mortality
81Neglected Diseases
82Neglected Diseases - epidemiology
83Neurological diseases
84Newborn
85Nutrition and Disease
86Nüfus Etütleri
87Other Medical Sciences
88Otitis
89over
90Pain
91Population growth
92Preschool
93Prevalence
94Prevalence studies (Epidemiology)
95Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
96Regression analysis
97Residence Characteristics
98Residence Characteristics - statistics & numerical data
99Respiratory diseases
100Santé publique et épidémiologie
101Science & Technology
102Sex Distribution
103Trends
104Upgrading
105VLAG
106Voeding en Ziekte
107Weights
108Wounds
109Wounds and Injuries
110Wounds and Injuries - epidemiology
111YLDs
112Young Adult
toplevel
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creatorcontrib
0Degenhardt, Louisa
1Erskine, Holly
2Ferrari, Alize J
3Fitzmaurice, Christina
4Graetz, Nicholas
5Hansen, Gillian M
6Laurie, Evan
7Liang, Xiofeng
8Ortblad, Katrina
9Sandar, Logan
10Abraham, Jerry P
11Abraham, Biju
12Abubakar, Ibrahim
13Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME
14Achoki, Tom
15Ademi, Zanfina
16Alam, Sayed Saidul
17Albittar, Mohammed I
18Alemu, Zewdie A
19Alla, Francois
20Anderson, Benjamin O
21Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
22Balalla, Shivanthi
23Barquera, Simon
24Basu, Sanjay
25Basu, Arindam
26Beghi, Ettore
27Bell, Michelle L
28Bensenor, Isabela M
29Borges, Guilherme
30Boyers, Lindsay N
31Briggs, Adam DM
32Buchbinder, Rachelle
33Burnett, Richard
34Campuzano, Julio C
35Catala-Lopez, Ferran
36Chang, Jung-Chen
37Christophi, Costas A
38Dandona, Lalit
39Deribe, Kebede
40Fay, Derek FJ
41Fowkes, F Gerry R
42Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A
43Gibney, Katherine B
44Gona, Philimon
45Gouda, Hebe N
46Hagan, Holly
47Pi, Ileana B Heredia
48Hoy, Damian G
49Huang, John J
50Husseini, Abdullatif
51Jonas, Jost B
52Karimkhani, Chante
53Khan, Gulfaraz
54Kieling, Christian
55Knibbs, Luke
56Lan, Qing
57Lim, Stephen
58Lind, Margaret
59Lindsay, M Patrice
60Lipshultz, Steven E
61Low, Nicola
62Lyons, Ronan A
63Mackay, Mark T
64Malekzadeh, Reza
65Mapoma, Christopher C
66McKee, Martin
67Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
68Miller, Ted R
69Mills, Edward J
70Moturi, Wilkister N
71Moyer, Madeline
72Naghavi, Paria
73Nand, Devina
74Ng, Marie
75Nhung, Nguyen T
76Norrving, Bo
77Nyakarahuka, Luke
78Pereira, David M
79Peterson, Carrie B
80Remuzzi, Giuseppe
81Riccio, Patricia M
82Richardson, Lee
83Rojas-Rueda, David
84Scarborough, Peter
85Seedat, Soraya
86Shackelford, Katya
87She, Jun
88Shibuya, Kenji
89Shinohara, Yukito
90Sindi, Shireen
91Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos
92Thomas, Elissa
93Thrift, Amanda G
94Traebert, Jefferson
95Wilkinson, James D
96Woldeyohannes, Solomon M
97Xu, Gelin
98Yentur, Gokalp K
99Zhang, Yong
100Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Collaborators
101Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för samhällsmedicin och folkhälsa
102Göteborgs universitet
103Gothenburg University
104Institute of Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine
105Sahlgrenska Academy
106Akademistatistik
107Sahlgrenska akademin
108Centre for Applied Biostatistics
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au
0Degenhardt, Louisa
1Erskine, Holly
2Ferrari, Alize J
3Fitzmaurice, Christina
4Graetz, Nicholas
5Hansen, Gillian M
6Laurie, Evan
7Liang, Xiofeng
8Ortblad, Katrina
9Sandar, Logan
10Abraham, Jerry P
11Abraham, Biju
12Abubakar, Ibrahim
13Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME
14Achoki, Tom
15Ademi, Zanfina
16Alam, Sayed Saidul
17Albittar, Mohammed I
18Alemu, Zewdie A
19Alla, Francois
20Anderson, Benjamin O
21Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
22Balalla, Shivanthi
23Barquera, Simon
24Basu, Sanjay
25Basu, Arindam
26Beghi, Ettore
27Bell, Michelle L
28Bensenor, Isabela M
29Borges, Guilherme
30Boyers, Lindsay N
31Briggs, Adam DM
32Buchbinder, Rachelle
33Burnett, Richard
34Campuzano, Julio C
35Catala-Lopez, Ferran
36Chang, Jung-Chen
37Christophi, Costas A
38Dandona, Lalit
39Deribe, Kebede
40Fay, Derek FJ
41Fowkes, F Gerry R
42Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A
43Gibney, Katherine B
44Gona, Philimon
45Gouda, Hebe N
46Hagan, Holly
47Pi, Ileana B Heredia
48Hoy, Damian G
49Huang, John J
50Husseini, Abdullatif
51Jonas, Jost B
52Karimkhani, Chante
53Khan, Gulfaraz
54Kieling, Christian
55Knibbs, Luke
56Lan, Qing
57Lim, Stephen
58Lind, Margaret
59Lindsay, M Patrice
60Lipshultz, Steven E
61Low, Nicola
62Lyons, Ronan A
63Mackay, Mark T
64Malekzadeh, Reza
65Mapoma, Christopher C
66McKee, Martin
67Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
68Miller, Ted R
69Mills, Edward J
70Moturi, Wilkister N
71Moyer, Madeline
72Naghavi, Paria
73Nand, Devina
74Ng, Marie
75Nhung, Nguyen T
76Norrving, Bo
77Nyakarahuka, Luke
78Pereira, David M
79Peterson, Carrie B
80Remuzzi, Giuseppe
81Riccio, Patricia M
82Richardson, Lee
83Rojas-Rueda, David
84Scarborough, Peter
85Seedat, Soraya
86Shackelford, Katya
87She, Jun
88Shibuya, Kenji
89Shinohara, Yukito
90Sindi, Shireen
91Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos
92Thomas, Elissa
93Thrift, Amanda G
94Traebert, Jefferson
95Wilkinson, James D
96Woldeyohannes, Solomon M
97Xu, Gelin
98Yentur, Gokalp K
99Zhang, Yong
aucorp
0Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Collaborators
1Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för samhällsmedicin och folkhälsa
2Göteborgs universitet
3Gothenburg University
4Institute of Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine
5Sahlgrenska Academy
6Akademistatistik
7Sahlgrenska akademin
8Centre for Applied Biostatistics
formatjournal
genrearticle
ristypeJOUR
atitleGlobal, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
jtitleLancet (London England)
addtitleLancet
date2015
risdate2015
volume386
issue9995
spage743
epage800
pages743-800
issn
00140-6736
11474-547X
eissn1474-547X
notes
0PMCID: PMC4561509
1TV, ADL, MN, and CJLM prepared the first draft. TV, CJLM, MFM, GH, and CS finalized the draft based on comments from other authors and reviewer feedback. TV, ADL, MN, and CJLM conceived of the study and provided overall guidance. TF, RB, SB, DD, LS, and JW performed final statistical analyses. All other authors provided data, developed models, reviewed results, provided guidance on methodology, and reviewed the manuscript.
2Contributors
3Collaborators listed at the end of the Article
abstractSummary Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
copEngland
pubElsevier Ltd
pmid26063472
doi10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4
oafree_for_read