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Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases,... Full description

Journal Title: Lancet 2017, Vol.390 (10100), p.1423-1459
Main Author: Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
Other Authors: Abd-Allah, Foad , Abera, Semaw Ferede , Abu-Raddad, Laith J , Adetokunboh, Olatunji , Afshin, Ashkan , Agrawal, Sutapa , Ahmadieh, Hamid , Aichour, Ibtihel , Ammar, Walid , Anwari, Palwasha , Azzopardi, Peter , Bannick, Marlena S , Bedi, Neeraj , Bell, Michelle L , Bennett, Derrick A , Betsu, Balem Demtsu , Bikbov, Boris , Boneya, Dube Jara , Butt, Zahid A , Cameron, Ewan , Cárdenas, Rosario , Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A , Castro, Ruben Estanislao , Chitheer, Abdulaal A , Cromwell, Elizabeth A , das Neves, José , Dubey, Manisha , Estep, Kara , Feigin, Valery L , Fernandes, João C , Filip, Irina , Friedman, Joseph , Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo , Giussani, Giorgia , Glenn, Scott D , Hareri, Habtamu Abera , Hendrie, Delia , John, Denny , Johnson, Catherine O , Karema, Corine Kakizi , Keiyoro, Peter Njenga , Koyanagi, Ai , Kyu, Hmwe H , Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor , Li, Yongmei , Lozano, Rafael , McGrath, John J , Mehndiratta, Man Mohan , Meier, Toni , Meretoja, Tuomo J , Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane , Millear, Anoushka , Misganaw, Awoke , Mohammed, Kedir Endris , Naheed, Aliya , Nong, Vuong Minh , Norheim, Ole F , Noubiap, Jean Jacques N , Oh, In-Hwan , Ortiz, Alberto , Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra , Papachristou, Christina , Pillay, Julian David , Pinho, Christine , Piradov, Michael A , Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa , Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur , Rahman, Muhammad Aziz , Rao, Puja C , Reinig, Nikolas , Remuzzi, Giuseppe , Renzaho, Andre M N , Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus , Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo , Roshandel, Gholamreza , Sartorius, Benn , Schneider, Ione J C , Shahraz, Saeid , Shamsizadeh, Morteza , Shi, Peilin , Shiri, Rahman , Silberberg, Donald H , Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves , Singh, Jasvinder A , Sinha, Dhirendra Narain , Skiadaresi, Eirini , Smith, Alison , Smith, Mari , Sorensen, Reed J D , Steiner, Caitlyn , Sunguya, Bruno F , Szoeke, Cassandra E I , Torre, Anna , Vollset, Stein Emil , Weichenthal, Scott , Yan, Lijing L , Yaseri, Mehdi , Zavala-Arciniega, Luis , Zodpey, Sanjay
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
Age
VDP
Quelle: Alma/SFX Local Collection
Publisher: England: Elsevier Ltd
ID: ISSN: 0140-6736
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recordid: cdi_wageningen_narcis_oai_library_wur_nl_wurpubs_538846
title: Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
format: Article
creator:
  • Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
  • Abd-Allah, Foad
  • Abera, Semaw Ferede
  • Abu-Raddad, Laith J
  • Adetokunboh, Olatunji
  • Afshin, Ashkan
  • Agrawal, Sutapa
  • Ahmadieh, Hamid
  • Aichour, Ibtihel
  • Ammar, Walid
  • Anwari, Palwasha
  • Azzopardi, Peter
  • Bannick, Marlena S
  • Bedi, Neeraj
  • Bell, Michelle L
  • Bennett, Derrick A
  • Betsu, Balem Demtsu
  • Bikbov, Boris
  • Boneya, Dube Jara
  • Butt, Zahid A
  • Cameron, Ewan
  • Cárdenas, Rosario
  • Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A
  • Castro, Ruben Estanislao
  • Chitheer, Abdulaal A
  • Cromwell, Elizabeth A
  • das Neves, José
  • Dubey, Manisha
  • Estep, Kara
  • Feigin, Valery L
  • Fernandes, João C
  • Filip, Irina
  • Friedman, Joseph
  • Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo
  • Giussani, Giorgia
  • Glenn, Scott D
  • Hareri, Habtamu Abera
  • Hendrie, Delia
  • John, Denny
  • Johnson, Catherine O
  • Karema, Corine Kakizi
  • Keiyoro, Peter Njenga
  • Koyanagi, Ai
  • Kyu, Hmwe H
  • Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor
  • Li, Yongmei
  • Lozano, Rafael
  • McGrath, John J
  • Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
  • Meier, Toni
  • Meretoja, Tuomo J
  • Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane
  • Millear, Anoushka
  • Misganaw, Awoke
  • Mohammed, Kedir Endris
  • Naheed, Aliya
  • Nong, Vuong Minh
  • Norheim, Ole F
  • Noubiap, Jean Jacques N
  • Oh, In-Hwan
  • Ortiz, Alberto
  • Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra
  • Papachristou, Christina
  • Pillay, Julian David
  • Pinho, Christine
  • Piradov, Michael A
  • Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa
  • Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur
  • Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
  • Rao, Puja C
  • Reinig, Nikolas
  • Remuzzi, Giuseppe
  • Renzaho, Andre M N
  • Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus
  • Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo
  • Roshandel, Gholamreza
  • Sartorius, Benn
  • Schneider, Ione J C
  • Shahraz, Saeid
  • Shamsizadeh, Morteza
  • Shi, Peilin
  • Shiri, Rahman
  • Silberberg, Donald H
  • Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves
  • Singh, Jasvinder A
  • Sinha, Dhirendra Narain
  • Skiadaresi, Eirini
  • Smith, Alison
  • Smith, Mari
  • Sorensen, Reed J D
  • Steiner, Caitlyn
  • Sunguya, Bruno F
  • Szoeke, Cassandra E I
  • Torre, Anna
  • Vollset, Stein Emil
  • Weichenthal, Scott
  • Yan, Lijing L
  • Yaseri, Mehdi
  • Zavala-Arciniega, Luis
  • Zodpey, Sanjay
subjects:
  • 11 Medical And Health Sciences
  • 3121 Internal medicine
  • 3142 Public health care science
  • 40-PERCENT
  • Adjusted Life Years
  • administrasjon
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age
  • Analysis
  • atira
  • Body weight
  • CARE
  • Catalysis
  • Chair Nutrition and Disease
  • Charities
  • Child
  • Child Abuse
  • Child Abuse, Sexual - statistics & numerical data
  • Child, Preschool
  • Children
  • CHINA
  • Conservation of Natural Resources
  • Conservation of Natural Resources - statistics & numerical data
  • COVERAGE
  • Data collection
  • DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
  • Disease
  • environmental
  • Epidemiology
  • Equatorial regions
  • Female
  • Folkhälsovetenskap
  • Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
  • General & Internal
  • General & Internal Medicine
  • Global Burden of Disease
  • Global Burden of Disease - statistics & numerical data
  • Global Health
  • Global Health - statistics & numerical data
  • Global Health Metrics
  • global hälsa
  • Goals
  • GOVERNMENT
  • Health
  • health administration research
  • Health economics
  • Health policy
  • Health risks
  • Health Sciences
  • Health sciences: 800
  • Health service
  • Health service and health administration research: 806
  • Health services
  • Health Services Administration
  • Health Status
  • Health Status Indicators
  • Helse
  • Helse- og sykehusadministrasjon / Health Services Administration
  • Helsefag
  • Helsefag: 800
  • Helsepolitikk
  • Helsepolitikk / Health policy
  • Helsetjeneste
  • Helsetjeneste- og helseadministrasjonsforskning: 806
  • Helsevesen og
  • Helsevesen og -administrasjon / Health economics
  • HNE Nutrition and Disease
  • HNE Voeding en Ziekte
  • Humans
  • Hygiene
  • Hälsovetenskap
  • Hälsovetenskaper
  • Indicators
  • Infant
  • Infant Mortality
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Injuries
  • Journal Article
  • Life Sciences & Biomedicine
  • Malaria
  • Male
  • Maternal & child health
  • Measurement
  • Measurement methods
  • Medical and Health Sciences
  • Medical research
  • Medicin och hälsovetenskap
  • Medicine
  • Medicine (all)
  • Medicine, Experimental
  • Medisinske fag
  • Medisinske fag: 700
  • MEXICO
  • Middle Aged
  • Midical sciences
  • Midical sciences: 700
  • MORTALITY
  • Neonates
  • Newborn
  • Noncommunicable Diseases
  • Noncommunicable Diseases - epidemiology
  • Nutrition and Disease
  • occupational health
  • og helseadministrasjonsforskning
  • og sykehusadministrasjon
  • Population
  • Populations
  • PREPAID PRIVATE
  • Preschool
  • Preventive Medicine
  • Public Health
  • Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
  • pubmedpublicationtype
  • pure
  • Quality
  • Quality-Adjusted Life Years
  • RA0421 Public health
  • Registration
  • researchoutput
  • Risk analysis
  • Risk factors
  • Science & Technology
  • Sex crimes
  • Sex Offenses
  • Sex Offenses - statistics & numerical data
  • Sexual
  • Social Medicine
  • socialmedicin och epidemiologi
  • Sociodemographics
  • Sustainable Development
  • SYSTEMS
  • Trends
  • Tuberculosis
  • Vaccines
  • VDP
  • Vector-borne diseases
  • Violence
  • VLAG
  • Voeding en Ziekte
  • Young Adult
ispartof: Lancet, 2017, Vol.390 (10100), p.1423-1459
description: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment con
language: eng
source: Alma/SFX Local Collection
identifier: ISSN: 0140-6736
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 0140-6736
  • 1474-547X
  • 1474-547X
url: Link


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titleMeasuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
sourceAlma/SFX Local Collection
creatorAbate, Kalkidan Hassen ; Abd-Allah, Foad ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Abu-Raddad, Laith J ; Adetokunboh, Olatunji ; Afshin, Ashkan ; Agrawal, Sutapa ; Ahmadieh, Hamid ; Aichour, Ibtihel ; Ammar, Walid ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Azzopardi, Peter ; Bannick, Marlena S ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bennett, Derrick A ; Betsu, Balem Demtsu ; Bikbov, Boris ; Boneya, Dube Jara ; Butt, Zahid A ; Cameron, Ewan ; Cárdenas, Rosario ; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A ; Castro, Ruben Estanislao ; Chitheer, Abdulaal A ; Cromwell, Elizabeth A ; das Neves, José ; Dubey, Manisha ; Estep, Kara ; Feigin, Valery L ; Fernandes, João C ; Filip, Irina ; Friedman, Joseph ; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo ; Giussani, Giorgia ; Glenn, Scott D ; Hareri, Habtamu Abera ; Hendrie, Delia ; John, Denny ; Johnson, Catherine O ; Karema, Corine Kakizi ; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga ; Koyanagi, Ai ; Kyu, Hmwe H ; Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor ; Li, Yongmei ; Lozano, Rafael ; McGrath, John J ; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan ; Meier, Toni ; Meretoja, Tuomo J ; Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane ; Millear, Anoushka ; Misganaw, Awoke ; Mohammed, Kedir Endris ; Naheed, Aliya ; Nong, Vuong Minh ; Norheim, Ole F ; Noubiap, Jean Jacques N ; Oh, In-Hwan ; Ortiz, Alberto ; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra ; Papachristou, Christina ; Pillay, Julian David ; Pinho, Christine ; Piradov, Michael A ; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa ; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur ; Rahman, Muhammad Aziz ; Rao, Puja C ; Reinig, Nikolas ; Remuzzi, Giuseppe ; Renzaho, Andre M N ; Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus ; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo ; Roshandel, Gholamreza ; Sartorius, Benn ; Schneider, Ione J C ; Shahraz, Saeid ; Shamsizadeh, Morteza ; Shi, Peilin ; Shiri, Rahman ; Silberberg, Donald H ; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves ; Singh, Jasvinder A ; Sinha, Dhirendra Narain ; Skiadaresi, Eirini ; Smith, Alison ; Smith, Mari ; Sorensen, Reed J D ; Steiner, Caitlyn ; Sunguya, Bruno F ; Szoeke, Cassandra E I ; Torre, Anna ; Vollset, Stein Emil ; Weichenthal, Scott ; Yan, Lijing L ; Yaseri, Mehdi ; Zavala-Arciniega, Luis ; Zodpey, Sanjay
creatorcontribAbate, Kalkidan Hassen ; Abd-Allah, Foad ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Abu-Raddad, Laith J ; Adetokunboh, Olatunji ; Afshin, Ashkan ; Agrawal, Sutapa ; Ahmadieh, Hamid ; Aichour, Ibtihel ; Ammar, Walid ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Azzopardi, Peter ; Bannick, Marlena S ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bennett, Derrick A ; Betsu, Balem Demtsu ; Bikbov, Boris ; Boneya, Dube Jara ; Butt, Zahid A ; Cameron, Ewan ; Cárdenas, Rosario ; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A ; Castro, Ruben Estanislao ; Chitheer, Abdulaal A ; Cromwell, Elizabeth A ; das Neves, José ; Dubey, Manisha ; Estep, Kara ; Feigin, Valery L ; Fernandes, João C ; Filip, Irina ; Friedman, Joseph ; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo ; Giussani, Giorgia ; Glenn, Scott D ; Hareri, Habtamu Abera ; Hendrie, Delia ; John, Denny ; Johnson, Catherine O ; Karema, Corine Kakizi ; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga ; Koyanagi, Ai ; Kyu, Hmwe H ; Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor ; Li, Yongmei ; Lozano, Rafael ; McGrath, John J ; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan ; Meier, Toni ; Meretoja, Tuomo J ; Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane ; Millear, Anoushka ; Misganaw, Awoke ; Mohammed, Kedir Endris ; Naheed, Aliya ; Nong, Vuong Minh ; Norheim, Ole F ; Noubiap, Jean Jacques N ; Oh, In-Hwan ; Ortiz, Alberto ; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra ; Papachristou, Christina ; Pillay, Julian David ; Pinho, Christine ; Piradov, Michael A ; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa ; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur ; Rahman, Muhammad Aziz ; Rao, Puja C ; Reinig, Nikolas ; Remuzzi, Giuseppe ; Renzaho, Andre M N ; Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus ; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo ; Roshandel, Gholamreza ; Sartorius, Benn ; Schneider, Ione J C ; Shahraz, Saeid ; Shamsizadeh, Morteza ; Shi, Peilin ; Shiri, Rahman ; Silberberg, Donald H ; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves ; Singh, Jasvinder A ; Sinha, Dhirendra Narain ; Skiadaresi, Eirini ; Smith, Alison ; Smith, Mari ; Sorensen, Reed J D ; Steiner, Caitlyn ; Sunguya, Bruno F ; Szoeke, Cassandra E I ; Torre, Anna ; Vollset, Stein Emil ; Weichenthal, Scott ; Yan, Lijing L ; Yaseri, Mehdi ; Zavala-Arciniega, Luis ; Zodpey, Sanjay ; GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators ; Sahlgrenska akademin ; Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för samhällsmedicin och folkhälsa, enheten för hälsometri ; Institute of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Health Metrics ; Göteborgs universitet ; Gothenburg University ; Sahlgrenska Academy
descriptionThe UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
identifier
0ISSN: 0140-6736
1ISSN: 1474-547X
2EISSN: 1474-547X
3DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X
4PMID: 28916366
languageeng
publisherEngland: Elsevier Ltd
subject
ispartofLancet, 2017, Vol.390 (10100), p.1423-1459
rights
02017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license
1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
2Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
3COPYRIGHT 2017 Elsevier B.V.
4Copyright Elsevier Limited Sep 16, 2017
52017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license 2017
6Wageningen University & Research
lds50peer_reviewed
oafree_for_read
citedbyFETCH-LOGICAL-12470t-31daf8bf63e79e3bac74ec18aa2127d87aba2c8597641de15d7a3f05ef29f793
citesFETCH-LOGICAL-12470t-31daf8bf63e79e3bac74ec18aa2127d87aba2c8597641de15d7a3f05ef29f793
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0$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28916366$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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creatorcontrib
0Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
1Abd-Allah, Foad
2Abera, Semaw Ferede
3Abu-Raddad, Laith J
4Adetokunboh, Olatunji
5Afshin, Ashkan
6Agrawal, Sutapa
7Ahmadieh, Hamid
8Aichour, Ibtihel
9Ammar, Walid
10Anwari, Palwasha
11Azzopardi, Peter
12Bannick, Marlena S
13Bedi, Neeraj
14Bell, Michelle L
15Bennett, Derrick A
16Betsu, Balem Demtsu
17Bikbov, Boris
18Boneya, Dube Jara
19Butt, Zahid A
20Cameron, Ewan
21Cárdenas, Rosario
22Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A
23Castro, Ruben Estanislao
24Chitheer, Abdulaal A
25Cromwell, Elizabeth A
26das Neves, José
27Dubey, Manisha
28Estep, Kara
29Feigin, Valery L
30Fernandes, João C
31Filip, Irina
32Friedman, Joseph
33Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo
34Giussani, Giorgia
35Glenn, Scott D
36Hareri, Habtamu Abera
37Hendrie, Delia
38John, Denny
39Johnson, Catherine O
40Karema, Corine Kakizi
41Keiyoro, Peter Njenga
42Koyanagi, Ai
43Kyu, Hmwe H
44Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor
45Li, Yongmei
46Lozano, Rafael
47McGrath, John J
48Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
49Meier, Toni
50Meretoja, Tuomo J
51Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane
52Millear, Anoushka
53Misganaw, Awoke
54Mohammed, Kedir Endris
55Naheed, Aliya
56Nong, Vuong Minh
57Norheim, Ole F
58Noubiap, Jean Jacques N
59Oh, In-Hwan
60Ortiz, Alberto
61Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra
62Papachristou, Christina
63Pillay, Julian David
64Pinho, Christine
65Piradov, Michael A
66Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa
67Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur
68Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
69Rao, Puja C
70Reinig, Nikolas
71Remuzzi, Giuseppe
72Renzaho, Andre M N
73Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus
74Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo
75Roshandel, Gholamreza
76Sartorius, Benn
77Schneider, Ione J C
78Shahraz, Saeid
79Shamsizadeh, Morteza
80Shi, Peilin
81Shiri, Rahman
82Silberberg, Donald H
83Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves
84Singh, Jasvinder A
85Sinha, Dhirendra Narain
86Skiadaresi, Eirini
87Smith, Alison
88Smith, Mari
89Sorensen, Reed J D
90Steiner, Caitlyn
91Sunguya, Bruno F
92Szoeke, Cassandra E I
93Torre, Anna
94Vollset, Stein Emil
95Weichenthal, Scott
96Yan, Lijing L
97Yaseri, Mehdi
98Zavala-Arciniega, Luis
99Zodpey, Sanjay
100GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators
101Sahlgrenska akademin
102Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för samhällsmedicin och folkhälsa, enheten för hälsometri
103Institute of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Health Metrics
104Göteborgs universitet
105Gothenburg University
106Sahlgrenska Academy
title
0Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
1Lancet
addtitleLancet
descriptionThe UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
subject
011 Medical And Health Sciences
13121 Internal medicine
23142 Public health care science
340-PERCENT
4Adjusted Life Years
5administrasjon
6Adolescent
7Adult
8Age
9Analysis
10atira
11Body weight
12CARE
13Catalysis
14Chair Nutrition and Disease
15Charities
16Child
17Child Abuse
18Child Abuse, Sexual - statistics & numerical data
19Child, Preschool
20Children
21CHINA
22Conservation of Natural Resources
23Conservation of Natural Resources - statistics & numerical data
24COVERAGE
25Data collection
26DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
27Disease
28environmental
29Epidemiology
30Equatorial regions
31Female
32Folkhälsovetenskap
33Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
34General & Internal
35General & Internal Medicine
36Global Burden of Disease
37Global Burden of Disease - statistics & numerical data
38Global Health
39Global Health - statistics & numerical data
40Global Health Metrics
41global hälsa
42Goals
43GOVERNMENT
44Health
45health administration research
46Health economics
47Health policy
48Health risks
49Health Sciences
50Health sciences: 800
51Health service
52Health service and health administration research: 806
53Health services
54Health Services Administration
55Health Status
56Health Status Indicators
57Helse
58Helse- og sykehusadministrasjon / Health Services Administration
59Helsefag
60Helsefag: 800
61Helsepolitikk
62Helsepolitikk / Health policy
63Helsetjeneste
64Helsetjeneste- og helseadministrasjonsforskning: 806
65Helsevesen og
66Helsevesen og -administrasjon / Health economics
67HNE Nutrition and Disease
68HNE Voeding en Ziekte
69Humans
70Hygiene
71Hälsovetenskap
72Hälsovetenskaper
73Indicators
74Infant
75Infant Mortality
76Infant, Newborn
77Injuries
78Journal Article
79Life Sciences & Biomedicine
80Malaria
81Male
82Maternal & child health
83Measurement
84Measurement methods
85Medical and Health Sciences
86Medical research
87Medicin och hälsovetenskap
88Medicine
89Medicine (all)
90Medicine, Experimental
91Medisinske fag
92Medisinske fag: 700
93MEXICO
94Middle Aged
95Midical sciences
96Midical sciences: 700
97MORTALITY
98Neonates
99Newborn
100Noncommunicable Diseases
101Noncommunicable Diseases - epidemiology
102Nutrition and Disease
103occupational health
104og helseadministrasjonsforskning
105og sykehusadministrasjon
106Population
107Populations
108PREPAID PRIVATE
109Preschool
110Preventive Medicine
111Public Health
112Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
113pubmedpublicationtype
114pure
115Quality
116Quality-Adjusted Life Years
117RA0421 Public health
118Registration
119researchoutput
120Risk analysis
121Risk factors
122Science & Technology
123Sex crimes
124Sex Offenses
125Sex Offenses - statistics & numerical data
126Sexual
127Social Medicine
128socialmedicin och epidemiologi
129Sociodemographics
130Sustainable Development
131SYSTEMS
132Trends
133Tuberculosis
134Vaccines
135VDP
136Vector-borne diseases
137Violence
138VLAG
139Voeding en Ziekte
140Young Adult
issn
00140-6736
11474-547X
21474-547X
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startdate20170916
enddate20170916
creator
0Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
1Abd-Allah, Foad
2Abera, Semaw Ferede
3Abu-Raddad, Laith J
4Adetokunboh, Olatunji
5Afshin, Ashkan
6Agrawal, Sutapa
7Ahmadieh, Hamid
8Aichour, Ibtihel
9Ammar, Walid
10Anwari, Palwasha
11Azzopardi, Peter
12Bannick, Marlena S
13Bedi, Neeraj
14Bell, Michelle L
15Bennett, Derrick A
16Betsu, Balem Demtsu
17Bikbov, Boris
18Boneya, Dube Jara
19Butt, Zahid A
20Cameron, Ewan
21Cárdenas, Rosario
22Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A
23Castro, Ruben Estanislao
24Chitheer, Abdulaal A
25Cromwell, Elizabeth A
26das Neves, José
27Dubey, Manisha
28Estep, Kara
29Feigin, Valery L
30Fernandes, João C
31Filip, Irina
32Friedman, Joseph
33Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo
34Giussani, Giorgia
35Glenn, Scott D
36Hareri, Habtamu Abera
37Hendrie, Delia
38John, Denny
39Johnson, Catherine O
40Karema, Corine Kakizi
41Keiyoro, Peter Njenga
42Koyanagi, Ai
43Kyu, Hmwe H
44Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor
45Li, Yongmei
46Lozano, Rafael
47McGrath, John J
48Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
49Meier, Toni
50Meretoja, Tuomo J
51Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane
52Millear, Anoushka
53Misganaw, Awoke
54Mohammed, Kedir Endris
55Naheed, Aliya
56Nong, Vuong Minh
57Norheim, Ole F
58Noubiap, Jean Jacques N
59Oh, In-Hwan
60Ortiz, Alberto
61Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra
62Papachristou, Christina
63Pillay, Julian David
64Pinho, Christine
65Piradov, Michael A
66Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa
67Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur
68Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
69Rao, Puja C
70Reinig, Nikolas
71Remuzzi, Giuseppe
72Renzaho, Andre M N
73Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus
74Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo
75Roshandel, Gholamreza
76Sartorius, Benn
77Schneider, Ione J C
78Shahraz, Saeid
79Shamsizadeh, Morteza
80Shi, Peilin
81Shiri, Rahman
82Silberberg, Donald H
83Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves
84Singh, Jasvinder A
85Sinha, Dhirendra Narain
86Skiadaresi, Eirini
87Smith, Alison
88Smith, Mari
89Sorensen, Reed J D
90Steiner, Caitlyn
91Sunguya, Bruno F
92Szoeke, Cassandra E I
93Torre, Anna
94Vollset, Stein Emil
95Weichenthal, Scott
96Yan, Lijing L
97Yaseri, Mehdi
98Zavala-Arciniega, Luis
99Zodpey, Sanjay
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0Elsevier Ltd
1Elsevier B.V
2Elsevier Limited
3Elsevier
4Lancet Publishing Group
5UK : The Lancet Publishing Group
6Uppsala universitet, Klinisk kemi
7Elsevier Science Inc
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titleMeasuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
authorAbate, Kalkidan Hassen ; Abd-Allah, Foad ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Abu-Raddad, Laith J ; Adetokunboh, Olatunji ; Afshin, Ashkan ; Agrawal, Sutapa ; Ahmadieh, Hamid ; Aichour, Ibtihel ; Ammar, Walid ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Azzopardi, Peter ; Bannick, Marlena S ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bennett, Derrick A ; Betsu, Balem Demtsu ; Bikbov, Boris ; Boneya, Dube Jara ; Butt, Zahid A ; Cameron, Ewan ; Cárdenas, Rosario ; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A ; Castro, Ruben Estanislao ; Chitheer, Abdulaal A ; Cromwell, Elizabeth A ; das Neves, José ; Dubey, Manisha ; Estep, Kara ; Feigin, Valery L ; Fernandes, João C ; Filip, Irina ; Friedman, Joseph ; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo ; Giussani, Giorgia ; Glenn, Scott D ; Hareri, Habtamu Abera ; Hendrie, Delia ; John, Denny ; Johnson, Catherine O ; Karema, Corine Kakizi ; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga ; Koyanagi, Ai ; Kyu, Hmwe H ; Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor ; Li, Yongmei ; Lozano, Rafael ; McGrath, John J ; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan ; Meier, Toni ; Meretoja, Tuomo J ; Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane ; Millear, Anoushka ; Misganaw, Awoke ; Mohammed, Kedir Endris ; Naheed, Aliya ; Nong, Vuong Minh ; Norheim, Ole F ; Noubiap, Jean Jacques N ; Oh, In-Hwan ; Ortiz, Alberto ; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra ; Papachristou, Christina ; Pillay, Julian David ; Pinho, Christine ; Piradov, Michael A ; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa ; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur ; Rahman, Muhammad Aziz ; Rao, Puja C ; Reinig, Nikolas ; Remuzzi, Giuseppe ; Renzaho, Andre M N ; Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus ; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo ; Roshandel, Gholamreza ; Sartorius, Benn ; Schneider, Ione J C ; Shahraz, Saeid ; Shamsizadeh, Morteza ; Shi, Peilin ; Shiri, Rahman ; Silberberg, Donald H ; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves ; Singh, Jasvinder A ; Sinha, Dhirendra Narain ; Skiadaresi, Eirini ; Smith, Alison ; Smith, Mari ; Sorensen, Reed J D ; Steiner, Caitlyn ; Sunguya, Bruno F ; Szoeke, Cassandra E I ; Torre, Anna ; Vollset, Stein Emil ; Weichenthal, Scott ; Yan, Lijing L ; Yaseri, Mehdi ; Zavala-Arciniega, Luis ; Zodpey, Sanjay
facets
frbrtype5
frbrgroupidcdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-12470t-31daf8bf63e79e3bac74ec18aa2127d87aba2c8597641de15d7a3f05ef29f793
rsrctypearticles
prefilterarticles
languageeng
creationdate2017
topic
011 Medical And Health Sciences
13121 Internal medicine
23142 Public health care science
340-PERCENT
4Adjusted Life Years
5administrasjon
6Adolescent
7Adult
8Age
9Analysis
10atira
11Body weight
12CARE
13Catalysis
14Chair Nutrition and Disease
15Charities
16Child
17Child Abuse
18Child Abuse, Sexual - statistics & numerical data
19Child, Preschool
20Children
21CHINA
22Conservation of Natural Resources
23Conservation of Natural Resources - statistics & numerical data
24COVERAGE
25Data collection
26DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
27Disease
28environmental
29Epidemiology
30Equatorial regions
31Female
32Folkhälsovetenskap
33Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
34General & Internal
35General & Internal Medicine
36Global Burden of Disease
37Global Burden of Disease - statistics & numerical data
38Global Health
39Global Health - statistics & numerical data
40Global Health Metrics
41global hälsa
42Goals
43GOVERNMENT
44Health
45health administration research
46Health economics
47Health policy
48Health risks
49Health Sciences
50Health sciences: 800
51Health service
52Health service and health administration research: 806
53Health services
54Health Services Administration
55Health Status
56Health Status Indicators
57Helse
58Helse- og sykehusadministrasjon / Health Services Administration
59Helsefag
60Helsefag: 800
61Helsepolitikk
62Helsepolitikk / Health policy
63Helsetjeneste
64Helsetjeneste- og helseadministrasjonsforskning: 806
65Helsevesen og
66Helsevesen og -administrasjon / Health economics
67HNE Nutrition and Disease
68HNE Voeding en Ziekte
69Humans
70Hygiene
71Hälsovetenskap
72Hälsovetenskaper
73Indicators
74Infant
75Infant Mortality
76Infant, Newborn
77Injuries
78Journal Article
79Life Sciences & Biomedicine
80Malaria
81Male
82Maternal & child health
83Measurement
84Measurement methods
85Medical and Health Sciences
86Medical research
87Medicin och hälsovetenskap
88Medicine
89Medicine (all)
90Medicine, Experimental
91Medisinske fag
92Medisinske fag: 700
93MEXICO
94Middle Aged
95Midical sciences
96Midical sciences: 700
97MORTALITY
98Neonates
99Newborn
100Noncommunicable Diseases
101Noncommunicable Diseases - epidemiology
102Nutrition and Disease
103occupational health
104og helseadministrasjonsforskning
105og sykehusadministrasjon
106Population
107Populations
108PREPAID PRIVATE
109Preschool
110Preventive Medicine
111Public Health
112Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
113pubmedpublicationtype
114pure
115Quality
116Quality-Adjusted Life Years
117RA0421 Public health
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1Abd-Allah, Foad
2Abera, Semaw Ferede
3Abu-Raddad, Laith J
4Adetokunboh, Olatunji
5Afshin, Ashkan
6Agrawal, Sutapa
7Ahmadieh, Hamid
8Aichour, Ibtihel
9Ammar, Walid
10Anwari, Palwasha
11Azzopardi, Peter
12Bannick, Marlena S
13Bedi, Neeraj
14Bell, Michelle L
15Bennett, Derrick A
16Betsu, Balem Demtsu
17Bikbov, Boris
18Boneya, Dube Jara
19Butt, Zahid A
20Cameron, Ewan
21Cárdenas, Rosario
22Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A
23Castro, Ruben Estanislao
24Chitheer, Abdulaal A
25Cromwell, Elizabeth A
26das Neves, José
27Dubey, Manisha
28Estep, Kara
29Feigin, Valery L
30Fernandes, João C
31Filip, Irina
32Friedman, Joseph
33Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo
34Giussani, Giorgia
35Glenn, Scott D
36Hareri, Habtamu Abera
37Hendrie, Delia
38John, Denny
39Johnson, Catherine O
40Karema, Corine Kakizi
41Keiyoro, Peter Njenga
42Koyanagi, Ai
43Kyu, Hmwe H
44Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor
45Li, Yongmei
46Lozano, Rafael
47McGrath, John J
48Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
49Meier, Toni
50Meretoja, Tuomo J
51Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane
52Millear, Anoushka
53Misganaw, Awoke
54Mohammed, Kedir Endris
55Naheed, Aliya
56Nong, Vuong Minh
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58Noubiap, Jean Jacques N
59Oh, In-Hwan
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73Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus
74Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo
75Roshandel, Gholamreza
76Sartorius, Benn
77Schneider, Ione J C
78Shahraz, Saeid
79Shamsizadeh, Morteza
80Shi, Peilin
81Shiri, Rahman
82Silberberg, Donald H
83Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves
84Singh, Jasvinder A
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86Skiadaresi, Eirini
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88Smith, Mari
89Sorensen, Reed J D
90Steiner, Caitlyn
91Sunguya, Bruno F
92Szoeke, Cassandra E I
93Torre, Anna
94Vollset, Stein Emil
95Weichenthal, Scott
96Yan, Lijing L
97Yaseri, Mehdi
98Zavala-Arciniega, Luis
99Zodpey, Sanjay
100GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators
101Sahlgrenska akademin
102Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för samhällsmedicin och folkhälsa, enheten för hälsometri
103Institute of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Health Metrics
104Göteborgs universitet
105Gothenburg University
106Sahlgrenska Academy
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delcategoryRemote Search Resource
fulltextfulltext
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au
0Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
1Abd-Allah, Foad
2Abera, Semaw Ferede
3Abu-Raddad, Laith J
4Adetokunboh, Olatunji
5Afshin, Ashkan
6Agrawal, Sutapa
7Ahmadieh, Hamid
8Aichour, Ibtihel
9Ammar, Walid
10Anwari, Palwasha
11Azzopardi, Peter
12Bannick, Marlena S
13Bedi, Neeraj
14Bell, Michelle L
15Bennett, Derrick A
16Betsu, Balem Demtsu
17Bikbov, Boris
18Boneya, Dube Jara
19Butt, Zahid A
20Cameron, Ewan
21Cárdenas, Rosario
22Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A
23Castro, Ruben Estanislao
24Chitheer, Abdulaal A
25Cromwell, Elizabeth A
26das Neves, José
27Dubey, Manisha
28Estep, Kara
29Feigin, Valery L
30Fernandes, João C
31Filip, Irina
32Friedman, Joseph
33Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo
34Giussani, Giorgia
35Glenn, Scott D
36Hareri, Habtamu Abera
37Hendrie, Delia
38John, Denny
39Johnson, Catherine O
40Karema, Corine Kakizi
41Keiyoro, Peter Njenga
42Koyanagi, Ai
43Kyu, Hmwe H
44Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor
45Li, Yongmei
46Lozano, Rafael
47McGrath, John J
48Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
49Meier, Toni
50Meretoja, Tuomo J
51Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane
52Millear, Anoushka
53Misganaw, Awoke
54Mohammed, Kedir Endris
55Naheed, Aliya
56Nong, Vuong Minh
57Norheim, Ole F
58Noubiap, Jean Jacques N
59Oh, In-Hwan
60Ortiz, Alberto
61Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra
62Papachristou, Christina
63Pillay, Julian David
64Pinho, Christine
65Piradov, Michael A
66Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa
67Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur
68Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
69Rao, Puja C
70Reinig, Nikolas
71Remuzzi, Giuseppe
72Renzaho, Andre M N
73Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus
74Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo
75Roshandel, Gholamreza
76Sartorius, Benn
77Schneider, Ione J C
78Shahraz, Saeid
79Shamsizadeh, Morteza
80Shi, Peilin
81Shiri, Rahman
82Silberberg, Donald H
83Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves
84Singh, Jasvinder A
85Sinha, Dhirendra Narain
86Skiadaresi, Eirini
87Smith, Alison
88Smith, Mari
89Sorensen, Reed J D
90Steiner, Caitlyn
91Sunguya, Bruno F
92Szoeke, Cassandra E I
93Torre, Anna
94Vollset, Stein Emil
95Weichenthal, Scott
96Yan, Lijing L
97Yaseri, Mehdi
98Zavala-Arciniega, Luis
99Zodpey, Sanjay
aucorp
0GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators
1Sahlgrenska akademin
2Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för samhällsmedicin och folkhälsa, enheten för hälsometri
3Institute of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Health Metrics
4Göteborgs universitet
5Gothenburg University
6Sahlgrenska Academy
formatjournal
genrearticle
ristypeJOUR
atitleMeasuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
jtitleLancet
addtitleLancet
date2017-09-16
risdate2017
volume390
issue10100
spage1423
epage1459
pages1423-1459
issn
00140-6736
11474-547X
eissn1474-547X
notes
0The Lancet
1Collaborators listed at the end of the article
abstractThe UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
copEngland
pubElsevier Ltd
pmid28916366
doi10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X
oafree_for_read