schliessen

Filtern

 

Bibliotheken

Setting post-2015 health goals: an empirical assessment based on the GBD 2010 results

Background Setting ambitious targets to address health problems has proven to be an effective motivator for change. We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2010 to explore what would be technically feasible but ambitious and motivating goals for Millennium Development Goals 4... Full description

Journal Title: The Lancet 17 June 2013, Vol.381, pp.S105-S105
Main Author: Ortblad, Katrina F
Other Authors: Lozano, Rafael , Murray, Christopher Jl
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
ID: ISSN: 0140-6736 ; E-ISSN: 1474-547X ; DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61359-8
Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673613613598
Zum Text:
SendSend as email Add to Book BagAdd to Book Bag
Staff View
recordid: elsevier_sdoi_10_1016_S0140_6736_13_61359_8
title: Setting post-2015 health goals: an empirical assessment based on the GBD 2010 results
format: Article
creator:
  • Ortblad, Katrina F
  • Lozano, Rafael
  • Murray, Christopher Jl
subjects:
  • Medicine
ispartof: The Lancet, 17 June 2013, Vol.381, pp.S105-S105
description: Background Setting ambitious targets to address health problems has proven to be an effective motivator for change. We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2010 to explore what would be technically feasible but ambitious and motivating goals for Millennium Development Goals 4, 5, and 6. Methods We outlined desirable target attributes and used these to guide our analysis. Annualised percentile declines for the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) as well as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, under-5 mortality, and adult mortality rates from 2000 to 2010 were analysed for 187 countries. Using the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile declines as well as highest decline observed in a developing country, rates of change from 2015 to 2030 were calculated. These same percentile declines were also used to project country-specific indicator estimates for 2030 that, when aggregated to the global level, informed absolute indicator targets. Findings We applied consistent criteria across each indicator; the most ambitious indicator targets were generated with the 99th percentile declines. Using these declines, rates of change from 2015 to 2030 were 85 times 0% for MMR, 88 times 3% for HIV/AIDS, 71 times 6% for tuberculosis, 95 times 7% for malaria, 80 times 7% for under-5 mortality, and 74 times 7% for adult mortality. In comparison, rates of change for these indicators using the less ambitious 90th percentile declines were 62 times 0%, 58 times 9%, 52 times 7%, 86 times 9%, 58 times 2%, and 32 times 8%, respectively. The absolute targets generated from the most ambitious percent declines were 15 times 8 (95% CI 13 times 0-18 times 6), 1 times 2 (1 times 1-1 times 3), 0 times 3 (0 times 3-0 times 4), and 3 times 3 (2 times 5-3 times 7) deaths per 100000, and 4 times 1 (4 times 0-4 times 3) and 96 times 6 (93 times 9-99 times 5) deaths per 1000 for these indicators. Interpretation Setting absolute targets for all countries shifts the focus of health goals away from high-burden countries and towards countries that need the most help in achieving the targets. Absolute targets are equity promoting and can easily be applied at subnational levels. New resources and strategies, however, need to be developed in order to accelerate progress in countries furthest from the targets. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
language: eng
source:
identifier: ISSN: 0140-6736 ; E-ISSN: 1474-547X ; DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61359-8
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 0140-6736
  • 01406736
  • 1474-547X
  • 1474547X
url: Link


@attributes
ID1484499399
RANK0.07
NO1
SEARCH_ENGINEprimo_central_multiple_fe
SEARCH_ENGINE_TYPEPrimo Central Search Engine
LOCALfalse
PrimoNMBib
record
control
sourcerecordiddoi_10_1016_S0140_6736_13_61359_8
sourceidelsevier_s
recordidTN_elsevier_sdoi_10_1016_S0140_6736_13_61359_8
sourcesystemPC
dbid
0--K
1--M
2.FO
31B1
41P~
51RT
6457
74G.
87-5
99JM
10AABNK
11AAEDT
12AAQFI
13ABBQC
14ABFNM
15ABMZM
16ABYKQ
17ACIUM
18ACRLP
19AEKER
20AEVXI
21AFKWA
22AFTJW
23AFXIZ
24AGHFR
25AITUG
26AJBFU
27AJOXV
28AJRQY
29AJUYK
30AMFUW
31ANZVX
32BNPGV
33EO8
34EO9
35EP2
36EP3
37FDB
38FIRID
39FNPLU
40G-Q
41GBLVA
42J1W
43KOM
44OD.
45OO~
46P-8
47P-9
48PC.
49R2-
50RPZ
51SAD
52SDF
53SDG
54SEL
55SES
56SSH
57SSZ
58T5K
59UV1
60Z5R
pqid1369301045
display
typearticle
titleSetting post-2015 health goals: an empirical assessment based on the GBD 2010 results
creatorOrtblad, Katrina F ; Lozano, Rafael ; Murray, Christopher Jl
ispartofThe Lancet, 17 June 2013, Vol.381, pp.S105-S105
identifier
subjectMedicine
languageeng
source
descriptionBackground Setting ambitious targets to address health problems has proven to be an effective motivator for change. We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2010 to explore what would be technically feasible but ambitious and motivating goals for Millennium Development Goals 4, 5, and 6. Methods We outlined desirable target attributes and used these to guide our analysis. Annualised percentile declines for the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) as well as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, under-5 mortality, and adult mortality rates from 2000 to 2010 were analysed for 187 countries. Using the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile declines as well as highest decline observed in a developing country, rates of change from 2015 to 2030 were calculated. These same percentile declines were also used to project country-specific indicator estimates for 2030 that, when aggregated to the global level, informed absolute indicator targets. Findings We applied consistent criteria across each indicator; the most ambitious indicator targets were generated with the 99th percentile declines. Using these declines, rates of change from 2015 to 2030 were 85 times 0% for MMR, 88 times 3% for HIV/AIDS, 71 times 6% for tuberculosis, 95 times 7% for malaria, 80 times 7% for under-5 mortality, and 74 times 7% for adult mortality. In comparison, rates of change for these indicators using the less ambitious 90th percentile declines were 62 times 0%, 58 times 9%, 52 times 7%, 86 times 9%, 58 times 2%, and 32 times 8%, respectively. The absolute targets generated from the most ambitious percent declines were 15 times 8 (95% CI 13 times 0-18 times 6), 1 times 2 (1 times 1-1 times 3), 0 times 3 (0 times 3-0 times 4), and 3 times 3 (2 times 5-3 times 7) deaths per 100000, and 4 times 1 (4 times 0-4 times 3) and 96 times 6 (93 times 9-99 times 5) deaths per 1000 for these indicators. Interpretation Setting absolute targets for all countries shifts the focus of health goals away from high-burden countries and towards countries that need the most help in achieving the targets. Absolute targets are equity promoting and can easily be applied at subnational levels. New resources and strategies, however, need to be developed in order to accelerate progress in countries furthest from the targets. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
version4
lds50peer_reviewed
links
openurl$$Topenurl_article
openurlfulltext$$Topenurlfull_article
backlink$$Uhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673613613598$$EView_record_in_ScienceDirect_(Access_to_full_text_may_be_restricted)
search
creatorcontrib
0Ortblad, Katrina F
1Lozano, Rafael
2Murray, Christopher Jl
titleSetting post-2015 health goals: an empirical assessment based on the GBD 2010 results
subjectMedicine
general
0English
1Elsevier Ltd
210.1016/S0140-6736(13)61359-8
3ScienceDirect (Elsevier)
4ScienceDirect Journals (Elsevier)
sourceidelsevier_s
recordidelsevier_sdoi_10_1016_S0140_6736_13_61359_8
issn
00140-6736
101406736
21474-547X
31474547X
rsrctypearticle
creationdate2013
addtitleThe Lancet
searchscope
0elsevier_full
1elsevier2
scope
0elsevier_full
1elsevier2
lsr44$$EView_record_in_ScienceDirect_(Access_to_full_text_may_be_restricted)
tmp01ScienceDirect Journals (Elsevier)
tmp02
0--K
1--M
2.FO
31B1
41P~
51RT
6457
74G.
87-5
99JM
10AABNK
11AAEDT
12AAQFI
13ABBQC
14ABFNM
15ABMZM
16ABYKQ
17ACIUM
18ACRLP
19AEKER
20AEVXI
21AFKWA
22AFTJW
23AFXIZ
24AGHFR
25AITUG
26AJBFU
27AJOXV
28AJRQY
29AJUYK
30AMFUW
31ANZVX
32BNPGV
33EO8
34EO9
35EP2
36EP3
37FDB
38FIRID
39FNPLU
40G-Q
41GBLVA
42J1W
43KOM
44OD.
45OO~
46P-8
47P-9
48PC.
49R2-
50RPZ
51SAD
52SDF
53SDG
54SEL
55SES
56SSH
57SSZ
58T5K
59UV1
60Z5R
startdate20130617
enddate20130617
lsr40The Lancet, 17 June 2013, Vol.381, pp.S105-S105
doi10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61359-8
citationpf S105 pt S105 vol 381
lsr30VSR-Enriched:[pqid, description, issue]
sort
titleSetting post-2015 health goals: an empirical assessment based on the GBD 2010 results
authorOrtblad, Katrina F ; Lozano, Rafael ; Murray, Christopher Jl
creationdate20130617
lso0120130617
facets
frbrgroupid8031114082606959004
frbrtype5
newrecords20190904
languageeng
topicMedicine
collectionScienceDirect (Elsevier)
prefilterarticles
rsrctypearticles
creatorcontrib
0Ortblad, Katrina F
1Lozano, Rafael
2Murray, Christopher Jl
jtitleLancet
creationdate2013
toplevelpeer_reviewed
delivery
delcategoryRemote Search Resource
fulltextfulltext
addata
aulast
0Ortblad
1Lozano
2Murray
aufirst
0Katrina F
1Rafael
2Christopher Jl
auinitK
auinit1K
au
0Ortblad, Katrina F
1Lozano, Rafael
2Murray, Christopher Jl
atitleSetting post-2015 health goals: an empirical assessment based on the GBD 2010 results
jtitleThe Lancet
risdate20130617
volume381
spageS105
epageS105
pagesS105-S105
issn0140-6736
eissn1474-547X
formatjournal
genrearticle
ristypeJOUR
pubElsevier Ltd
doi10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61359-8
lad01The Lancet
issueSupplement 2
date2013-06-17