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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitm... Full description

Journal Title: The Lancet 13 May 2017, Vol.389(10082), pp.1885-1906
Main Author: Reitsma, Marissa B
Other Authors: Fullman, Nancy , Ng, Marie , Salama, Joseph S , Abajobir, Amanuel , Abate, Kalkidan Hassen , Abbafati, Cristiana , Abera, Semaw Ferede , Abraham, Biju , Abyu, Gebre Yitayih , Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi , Al-Aly, Ziyad , Aleman, Alicia V , Ali, Raghib , Al Alkerwi, Ala'a , Allebeck, Peter , Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad , Amare, Azmeraw T , Amberbir, Alemayehu , Ammar, Walid , Amrock, Stephen Marc , Antonio, Carl Abelardo T , Asayesh, Hamid , Atnafu, Niguse Tadela , Azzopardi, Peter , Banerjee, Amitava , Barac, Aleksandra , Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh , Basto-Abreu, Ana Cristina , Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad , Bedi, Neeraj , Bell, Brent , Bello, Aminu K , Bensenor, Isabela M , Beyene, Addisu Shunu , Bhala, Neeraj , Biryukov, Stan , Bolt, Kaylin , Brenner, Hermann , Butt, Zahid , Cavalleri, Fiorella , Cercy, Kelly , Chen, Honglei , Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas , Ciobanu, Liliana G , Colistro, Valentina , Colomar, Mercedes , Cornaby, Leslie , Dai, Xiaochen , Damtew, Solomon Abrha , Dandona, Lalit , Dandona, Rakhi , Dansereau, Emily , Davletov, Kairat , Dayama, Anand , Degfie, Tizta Tilahun , Deribew, Amare , Dharmaratne, Samath D , Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu , Doyle, Kerrie E , Endries, Aman Yesuf , Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich , Estep, Kara , Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino , Farzadfar, Farshad , Feigin, Valery L , Feigl, Andrea B , Fischer, Florian , Friedman, Joseph , G/Hiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde , Gall, Seana L , Gao, Wayne , Gillum, Richard F , Gold, Audra L , Gopalani, Sameer Vali , Gotay, Carolyn C , Gupta, Rahul , Gupta, Rajeev , Gupta, Vipin , Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi , Hankey, Graeme , Harb, Hilda L , Hay, Simon I , Horino, Masako , Horita, Nobuyuki , Hosgood, H Dean , Husseini, Abdullatif , Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile , Islami, Farhad , Jiang, Guohong , Jiang, Ying , Jonas, Jost B , Kabir, Zubair , Kamal, Ritul , Kasaeian, Amir , Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair , Khader, Yousef S , Khalil, Ibrahim , Khang, Young-Ho , Khera, Sahil , Khubchandani, Jagdish , Kim, Daniel , Kim, Yun Jin , Kimokoti, Ruth W , Kinfu, Yohannes , Knibbs, Luke D , Kokubo, Yoshihiro , Kolte, Dhaval , Kopec, Jacek , Kosen, Soewarta , Kotsakis, Georgios A , Koul, Parvaiz A , Koyanagi, Ai , Krohn, Kristopher J , Krueger, Hans , Defo, Barthelemy Kuate , Bicer, Burcu Kucuk , Kulkarni, Chanda , Kumar, G Anil , Leasher, Janet L , Lee, Alexander , Leinsalu, Mall , Li, Tong , Linn, Shai , Liu, Patrick , Liu, Shiwei , Lo, Loon-Tzian , Lopez, Alan D , Ma, Stefan , El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd , Majeed, Azeem , Malekzadeh, Reza , Malta, Deborah Carvalho , Manamo, Wondimu Ayele , Martinez-Raga, Jose , Mekonnen, Alemayehu Berhane , Mendoza, Walter , Miller, Ted R , Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin , Morawska, Lidia , Musa, Kamarul Imran , Nagel, Gabriele , Neupane, Sudan Prasad , Nguyen, Quyen , Nguyen, Grant , Oh, In-Hwan , Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel , PA, Mahesh , Pana, Adrian , Park, Eun-Kee , Patil, Snehal T , Patton, George C , Pedro, Joao , Qorbani, Mostafa , Rafay, Anwar , Rahman, Mahfuzar , Rai, Rajesh Kumar , Ram, Usha , Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal , Refaat, Amany H , Reinig, Nickolas , Roba, Hirbo Shore , Rodriguez, Alina , Roman, Yesenia , Roth, Gregory , Roy, Ambuj , Sagar, Rajesh , Salomon, Joshua A , Sanabria, Juan , de Souza Santos, Itamar , Sartorius, Benn , Satpathy, Maheswar , Sawhney, Monika , Sawyer, Susan , Saylan, Mete , Schaub, Michael P , Schluger, Neil , Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth , Sepanlou, Sadaf G , Serdar, Berrin , Shaikh, Masood Ali , She, Jun , Shin, Min-Jeong , Shiri, Rahman , Shishani, Kawkab , Shiue, Ivy , Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora , Silverberg, Jonathan I , Singh, Jasvinder , Singh, Virendra , Slepak, Erica Leigh , Soneji, Samir , Soriano, Joan B , Soshnikov, Sergey , Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T , Stein, Dan J , Stranges, Saverio , Subart, Michelle L , Swaminathan, Soumya , Szoeke, Cassandra E I , Tefera, Worku Mekonnen , Topor-Madry, Roman , Tran, Bach , Tsilimparis, Nikolaos , Tymeson, Hayley , Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna , Updike, Rachel , Uthman, Olalekan A , Violante, Francesco Saverio , Vladimirov, Sergey K , Vlassov, Vasiliy , Vollset, Stein Emil , Vos, Theo , Weiderpass, Elisabete , Wen, Chi-Pan , Werdecker, Andrea , Wilson, Shelley , Wubshet, Mamo , Xiao, Lin , Yakob, Bereket , Yano, Yuichiro , Ye, Penpeng , Yonemoto, Naohiro , Yoon, Seok-Jun , Younis, Mustafa Z , Yu, Chuanhua , Zaidi, Zoubida , El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa , Zhang, Anthony Lin , Zipkin, Ben , Murray, Christopher J L , Forouzanfar, Mohammad H , Gakidou, Emmanuela
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
ID: ISSN: 0140-6736 ; E-ISSN: 1474-547X ; DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X
Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014067361730819X
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recordid: elsevier_sdoi_10_1016_S0140_6736_17_30819_X
title: Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
format: Article
creator:
  • Reitsma, Marissa B
  • Fullman, Nancy
  • Ng, Marie
  • Salama, Joseph S
  • Abajobir, Amanuel
  • Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
  • Abbafati, Cristiana
  • Abera, Semaw Ferede
  • Abraham, Biju
  • Abyu, Gebre Yitayih
  • Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi
  • Al-Aly, Ziyad
  • Aleman, Alicia V
  • Ali, Raghib
  • Al Alkerwi, Ala'a
  • Allebeck, Peter
  • Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad
  • Amare, Azmeraw T
  • Amberbir, Alemayehu
  • Ammar, Walid
  • Amrock, Stephen Marc
  • Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
  • Asayesh, Hamid
  • Atnafu, Niguse Tadela
  • Azzopardi, Peter
  • Banerjee, Amitava
  • Barac, Aleksandra
  • Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh
  • Basto-Abreu, Ana Cristina
  • Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad
  • Bedi, Neeraj
  • Bell, Brent
  • Bello, Aminu K
  • Bensenor, Isabela M
  • Beyene, Addisu Shunu
  • Bhala, Neeraj
  • Biryukov, Stan
  • Bolt, Kaylin
  • Brenner, Hermann
  • Butt, Zahid
  • Cavalleri, Fiorella
  • Cercy, Kelly
  • Chen, Honglei
  • Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas
  • Ciobanu, Liliana G
  • Colistro, Valentina
  • Colomar, Mercedes
  • Cornaby, Leslie
  • Dai, Xiaochen
  • Damtew, Solomon Abrha
  • Dandona, Lalit
  • Dandona, Rakhi
  • Dansereau, Emily
  • Davletov, Kairat
  • Dayama, Anand
  • Degfie, Tizta Tilahun
  • Deribew, Amare
  • Dharmaratne, Samath D
  • Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu
  • Doyle, Kerrie E
  • Endries, Aman Yesuf
  • Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich
  • Estep, Kara
  • Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino
  • Farzadfar, Farshad
  • Feigin, Valery L
  • Feigl, Andrea B
  • Fischer, Florian
  • Friedman, Joseph
  • G/Hiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde
  • Gall, Seana L
  • Gao, Wayne
  • Gillum, Richard F
  • Gold, Audra L
  • Gopalani, Sameer Vali
  • Gotay, Carolyn C
  • Gupta, Rahul
  • Gupta, Rajeev
  • Gupta, Vipin
  • Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
  • Hankey, Graeme
  • Harb, Hilda L
  • Hay, Simon I
  • Horino, Masako
  • Horita, Nobuyuki
  • Hosgood, H Dean
  • Husseini, Abdullatif
  • Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile
  • Islami, Farhad
  • Jiang, Guohong
  • Jiang, Ying
  • Jonas, Jost B
  • Kabir, Zubair
  • Kamal, Ritul
  • Kasaeian, Amir
  • Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair
  • Khader, Yousef S
  • Khalil, Ibrahim
  • Khang, Young-Ho
  • Khera, Sahil
  • Khubchandani, Jagdish
  • Kim, Daniel
  • Kim, Yun Jin
  • Kimokoti, Ruth W
  • Kinfu, Yohannes
  • Knibbs, Luke D
  • Kokubo, Yoshihiro
  • Kolte, Dhaval
  • Kopec, Jacek
  • Kosen, Soewarta
  • Kotsakis, Georgios A
  • Koul, Parvaiz A
  • Koyanagi, Ai
  • Krohn, Kristopher J
  • Krueger, Hans
  • Defo, Barthelemy Kuate
  • Bicer, Burcu Kucuk
  • Kulkarni, Chanda
  • Kumar, G Anil
  • Leasher, Janet L
  • Lee, Alexander
  • Leinsalu, Mall
  • Li, Tong
  • Linn, Shai
  • Liu, Patrick
  • Liu, Shiwei
  • Lo, Loon-Tzian
  • Lopez, Alan D
  • Ma, Stefan
  • El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd
  • Majeed, Azeem
  • Malekzadeh, Reza
  • Malta, Deborah Carvalho
  • Manamo, Wondimu Ayele
  • Martinez-Raga, Jose
  • Mekonnen, Alemayehu Berhane
  • Mendoza, Walter
  • Miller, Ted R
  • Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin
  • Morawska, Lidia
  • Musa, Kamarul Imran
  • Nagel, Gabriele
  • Neupane, Sudan Prasad
  • Nguyen, Quyen
  • Nguyen, Grant
  • Oh, In-Hwan
  • Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel
  • PA, Mahesh
  • Pana, Adrian
  • Park, Eun-Kee
  • Patil, Snehal T
  • Patton, George C
  • Pedro, Joao
  • Qorbani, Mostafa
  • Rafay, Anwar
  • Rahman, Mahfuzar
  • Rai, Rajesh Kumar
  • Ram, Usha
  • Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal
  • Refaat, Amany H
  • Reinig, Nickolas
  • Roba, Hirbo Shore
  • Rodriguez, Alina
  • Roman, Yesenia
  • Roth, Gregory
  • Roy, Ambuj
  • Sagar, Rajesh
  • Salomon, Joshua A
  • Sanabria, Juan
  • de Souza Santos, Itamar
  • Sartorius, Benn
  • Satpathy, Maheswar
  • Sawhney, Monika
  • Sawyer, Susan
  • Saylan, Mete
  • Schaub, Michael P
  • Schluger, Neil
  • Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth
  • Sepanlou, Sadaf G
  • Serdar, Berrin
  • Shaikh, Masood Ali
  • She, Jun
  • Shin, Min-Jeong
  • Shiri, Rahman
  • Shishani, Kawkab
  • Shiue, Ivy
  • Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora
  • Silverberg, Jonathan I
  • Singh, Jasvinder
  • Singh, Virendra
  • Slepak, Erica Leigh
  • Soneji, Samir
  • Soriano, Joan B
  • Soshnikov, Sergey
  • Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T
  • Stein, Dan J
  • Stranges, Saverio
  • Subart, Michelle L
  • Swaminathan, Soumya
  • Szoeke, Cassandra E I
  • Tefera, Worku Mekonnen
  • Topor-Madry, Roman
  • Tran, Bach
  • Tsilimparis, Nikolaos
  • Tymeson, Hayley
  • Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna
  • Updike, Rachel
  • Uthman, Olalekan A
  • Violante, Francesco Saverio
  • Vladimirov, Sergey K
  • Vlassov, Vasiliy
  • Vollset, Stein Emil
  • Vos, Theo
  • Weiderpass, Elisabete
  • Wen, Chi-Pan
  • Werdecker, Andrea
  • Wilson, Shelley
  • Wubshet, Mamo
  • Xiao, Lin
  • Yakob, Bereket
  • Yano, Yuichiro
  • Ye, Penpeng
  • Yonemoto, Naohiro
  • Yoon, Seok-Jun
  • Younis, Mustafa Z
  • Yu, Chuanhua
  • Zaidi, Zoubida
  • El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa
  • Zhang, Anthony Lin
  • Zipkin, Ben
  • Murray, Christopher J L
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H
  • Gakidou, Emmanuela
subjects:
  • Medicine
ispartof: The Lancet, 13 May 2017, Vol.389(10082), pp.1885-1906
description: The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·2–25·7) for men and 5·4% (5·1–5·7) for women, representing 28·4% (25·8–31·1) and 34·4% (29·4–38·6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11·5% of global deaths (6·4 million [95% UI 5·7–7·0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52·2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence
language: eng
source:
identifier: ISSN: 0140-6736 ; E-ISSN: 1474-547X ; DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 0140-6736
  • 01406736
  • 1474-547X
  • 1474547X
url: Link


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titleSmoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
creatorReitsma, Marissa B ; Fullman, Nancy ; Ng, Marie ; Salama, Joseph S ; Abajobir, Amanuel ; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen ; Abbafati, Cristiana ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Abraham, Biju ; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih ; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi ; Al-Aly, Ziyad ; Aleman, Alicia V ; Ali, Raghib ; Al Alkerwi, Ala'a ; Allebeck, Peter ; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad ; Amare, Azmeraw T ; Amberbir, Alemayehu ; Ammar, Walid ; Amrock, Stephen Marc ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Asayesh, Hamid ; Atnafu, Niguse Tadela ; Azzopardi, Peter ; Banerjee, Amitava ; Barac, Aleksandra ; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh ; Basto-Abreu, Ana Cristina ; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Bell, Brent ; Bello, Aminu K ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Beyene, Addisu Shunu ; Bhala, Neeraj ; Biryukov, Stan ; Bolt, Kaylin ; Brenner, Hermann ; Butt, Zahid ; Cavalleri, Fiorella ; Cercy, Kelly ; Chen, Honglei ; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas ; Ciobanu, Liliana G ; Colistro, Valentina ; Colomar, Mercedes ; Cornaby, Leslie ; Dai, Xiaochen ; Damtew, Solomon Abrha ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Dansereau, Emily ; Davletov, Kairat ; Dayama, Anand ; Degfie, Tizta Tilahun ; Deribew, Amare ; Dharmaratne, Samath D ; Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu ; Doyle, Kerrie E ; Endries, Aman Yesuf ; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich ; Estep, Kara ; Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Feigin, Valery L ; Feigl, Andrea B ; Fischer, Florian ; Friedman, Joseph ; G/Hiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde ; Gall, Seana L ; Gao, Wayne ; Gillum, Richard F ; Gold, Audra L ; Gopalani, Sameer Vali ; Gotay, Carolyn C ; Gupta, Rahul ; Gupta, Rajeev ; Gupta, Vipin ; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi ; Hankey, Graeme ; Harb, Hilda L ; Hay, Simon I ; Horino, Masako ; Horita, Nobuyuki ; Hosgood, H Dean ; Husseini, Abdullatif ; Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile ; Islami, Farhad ; Jiang, Guohong ; Jiang, Ying ; Jonas, Jost B ; Kabir, Zubair ; Kamal, Ritul ; Kasaeian, Amir ; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair ; Khader, Yousef S ; Khalil, Ibrahim ; Khang, Young-Ho ; Khera, Sahil ; Khubchandani, Jagdish ; Kim, Daniel ; Kim, Yun Jin ; Kimokoti, Ruth W ; Kinfu, Yohannes ; Knibbs, Luke D ; Kokubo, Yoshihiro ; Kolte, Dhaval ; Kopec, Jacek ; Kosen, Soewarta ; Kotsakis, Georgios A ; Koul, Parvaiz A ; Koyanagi, Ai ; Krohn, Kristopher J ; Krueger, Hans ; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate ; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk ; Kulkarni, Chanda ; Kumar, G Anil ; Leasher, Janet L ; Lee, Alexander ; Leinsalu, Mall ; Li, Tong ; Linn, Shai ; Liu, Patrick ; Liu, Shiwei ; Lo, Loon-Tzian ; Lopez, Alan D ; Ma, Stefan ; El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd ; Majeed, Azeem ; Malekzadeh, Reza ; Malta, Deborah Carvalho ; Manamo, Wondimu Ayele ; Martinez-Raga, Jose ; Mekonnen, Alemayehu Berhane ; Mendoza, Walter ; Miller, Ted R ; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin ; Morawska, Lidia ; Musa, Kamarul Imran ; Nagel, Gabriele ; Neupane, Sudan Prasad ; Nguyen, Quyen ; Nguyen, Grant ; Oh, In-Hwan ; Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel ; PA, Mahesh ; Pana, Adrian ; Park, Eun-Kee ; Patil, Snehal T ; Patton, George C ; Pedro, Joao ; Qorbani, Mostafa ; Rafay, Anwar ; Rahman, Mahfuzar ; Rai, Rajesh Kumar ; Ram, Usha ; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal ; Refaat, Amany H ; Reinig, Nickolas ; Roba, Hirbo Shore ; Rodriguez, Alina ; Roman, Yesenia ; Roth, Gregory ; Roy, Ambuj ; Sagar, Rajesh ; Salomon, Joshua A ; Sanabria, Juan ; de Souza Santos, Itamar ; Sartorius, Benn ; Satpathy, Maheswar ; Sawhney, Monika ; Sawyer, Susan ; Saylan, Mete ; Schaub, Michael P ; Schluger, Neil ; Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth ; Sepanlou, Sadaf G ; Serdar, Berrin ; Shaikh, Masood Ali ; She, Jun ; Shin, Min-Jeong ; Shiri, Rahman ; Shishani, Kawkab ; Shiue, Ivy ; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora ; Silverberg, Jonathan I ; Singh, Jasvinder ; Singh, Virendra ; Slepak, Erica Leigh ; Soneji, Samir ; Soriano, Joan B ; Soshnikov, Sergey ; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T ; Stein, Dan J ; Stranges, Saverio ; Subart, Michelle L ; Swaminathan, Soumya ; Szoeke, Cassandra E I ; Tefera, Worku Mekonnen ; Topor-Madry, Roman ; Tran, Bach ; Tsilimparis, Nikolaos ; Tymeson, Hayley ; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna ; Updike, Rachel ; Uthman, Olalekan A ; Violante, Francesco Saverio ; Vladimirov, Sergey K ; Vlassov, Vasiliy ; Vollset, Stein Emil ; Vos, Theo ; Weiderpass, Elisabete ; Wen, Chi-Pan ; Werdecker, Andrea ; Wilson, Shelley ; Wubshet, Mamo ; Xiao, Lin ; Yakob, Bereket ; Yano, Yuichiro ; Ye, Penpeng ; Yonemoto, Naohiro ; Yoon, Seok-Jun ; Younis, Mustafa Z ; Yu, Chuanhua ; Zaidi, Zoubida ; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa ; Zhang, Anthony Lin ; Zipkin, Ben ; Murray, Christopher J L ; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H ; Gakidou, Emmanuela
ispartofThe Lancet, 13 May 2017, Vol.389(10082), pp.1885-1906
identifier
subjectMedicine
descriptionThe scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·2–25·7) for men and 5·4% (5·1–5·7) for women, representing 28·4% (25·8–31·1) and 34·4% (29·4–38·6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11·5% of global deaths (6·4 million [95% UI 5·7–7·0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52·2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.
languageeng
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0Reitsma, Marissa B
1Fullman, Nancy
2Ng, Marie
3Salama, Joseph S
4Abajobir, Amanuel
5Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
6Abbafati, Cristiana
7Abera, Semaw Ferede
8Abraham, Biju
9Abyu, Gebre Yitayih
10Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi
11Al-Aly, Ziyad
12Aleman, Alicia V
13Ali, Raghib
14Al Alkerwi, Ala'a
15Allebeck, Peter
16Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad
17Amare, Azmeraw T
18Amberbir, Alemayehu
19Ammar, Walid
20Amrock, Stephen Marc
21Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
22Asayesh, Hamid
23Atnafu, Niguse Tadela
24Azzopardi, Peter
25Banerjee, Amitava
26Barac, Aleksandra
27Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh
28Basto-Abreu, Ana Cristina
29Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad
30Bedi, Neeraj
31Bell, Brent
32Bello, Aminu K
33Bensenor, Isabela M
34Beyene, Addisu Shunu
35Bhala, Neeraj
36Biryukov, Stan
37Bolt, Kaylin
38Brenner, Hermann
39Butt, Zahid
40Cavalleri, Fiorella
41Cercy, Kelly
42Chen, Honglei
43Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas
44Ciobanu, Liliana G
45Colistro, Valentina
46Colomar, Mercedes
47Cornaby, Leslie
48Dai, Xiaochen
49Damtew, Solomon Abrha
50Dandona, Lalit
51Dandona, Rakhi
52Dansereau, Emily
53Davletov, Kairat
54Dayama, Anand
55Degfie, Tizta Tilahun
56Deribew, Amare
57Dharmaratne, Samath D
58Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu
59Doyle, Kerrie E
60Endries, Aman Yesuf
61Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich
62Estep, Kara
63Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino
64Farzadfar, Farshad
65Feigin, Valery L
66Feigl, Andrea B
67Fischer, Florian
68Friedman, Joseph
69G/Hiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde
70Gall, Seana L
71Gao, Wayne
72Gillum, Richard F
73Gold, Audra L
74Gopalani, Sameer Vali
75Gotay, Carolyn C
76Gupta, Rahul
77Gupta, Rajeev
78Gupta, Vipin
79Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
80Hankey, Graeme
81Harb, Hilda L
82Hay, Simon I
83Horino, Masako
84Horita, Nobuyuki
85Hosgood, H Dean
86Husseini, Abdullatif
87Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile
88Islami, Farhad
89Jiang, Guohong
90Jiang, Ying
91Jonas, Jost B
92Kabir, Zubair
93Kamal, Ritul
94Kasaeian, Amir
95Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair
96Khader, Yousef S
97Khalil, Ibrahim
98Khang, Young-Ho
99Khera, Sahil
100...
titleSmoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
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lsr40The Lancet, 13 May 2017, Vol.389 (10082), pp.1885-1906
doi10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X
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titleSmoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
authorReitsma, Marissa B ; Fullman, Nancy ; Ng, Marie ; Salama, Joseph S ; Abajobir, Amanuel ; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen ; Abbafati, Cristiana ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Abraham, Biju ; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih ; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi ; Al-Aly, Ziyad ; Aleman, Alicia V ; Ali, Raghib ; Al Alkerwi, Ala'a ; Allebeck, Peter ; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad ; Amare, Azmeraw T ; Amberbir, Alemayehu ; Ammar, Walid ; Amrock, Stephen Marc ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Asayesh, Hamid ; Atnafu, Niguse Tadela ; Azzopardi, Peter ; Banerjee, Amitava ; Barac, Aleksandra ; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh ; Basto-Abreu, Ana Cristina ; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Bell, Brent ; Bello, Aminu K ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Beyene, Addisu Shunu ; Bhala, Neeraj ; Biryukov, Stan ; Bolt, Kaylin ; Brenner, Hermann ; Butt, Zahid ; Cavalleri, Fiorella ; Cercy, Kelly ; Chen, Honglei ; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas ; Ciobanu, Liliana G ; Colistro, Valentina ; Colomar, Mercedes ; Cornaby, Leslie ; Dai, Xiaochen ; Damtew, Solomon Abrha ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Dansereau, Emily ; Davletov, Kairat ; Dayama, Anand ; Degfie, Tizta Tilahun ; Deribew, Amare ; Dharmaratne, Samath D ; Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu ; Doyle, Kerrie E ; Endries, Aman Yesuf ; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich ; Estep, Kara ; Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Feigin, Valery L ; Feigl, Andrea B ; Fischer, Florian ; Friedman, Joseph ; G/Hiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde ; Gall, Seana L ; Gao, Wayne ; Gillum, Richard F ; Gold, Audra L ; Gopalani, Sameer Vali ; Gotay, Carolyn C ; Gupta, Rahul ; Gupta, Rajeev ; Gupta, Vipin ; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi ; Hankey, Graeme ; Harb, Hilda L ; Hay, Simon I ; Horino, Masako ; Horita, Nobuyuki ; Hosgood, H Dean ; Husseini, Abdullatif ; Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile ; Islami, Farhad ; Jiang, Guohong ; Jiang, Ying ; Jonas, Jost B ; Kabir, Zubair ; Kamal, Ritul ; Kasaeian, Amir ; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair ; Khader, Yousef S ; Khalil, Ibrahim ; Khang, Young-Ho ; Khera, Sahil ; Khubchandani, Jagdish ; Kim, Daniel ; Kim, Yun Jin ; Kimokoti, Ruth W ; Kinfu, Yohannes ; Knibbs, Luke D ; Kokubo, Yoshihiro ; Kolte, Dhaval ; Kopec, Jacek ; Kosen, Soewarta ; Kotsakis, Georgios A ; Koul, Parvaiz A ; Koyanagi, Ai ; Krohn, Kristopher J ; Krueger, Hans ; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate ; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk ; Kulkarni, Chanda ; Kumar, G Anil ; Leasher, Janet L ; Lee, Alexander ; Leinsalu, Mall ; Li, Tong ; Linn, Shai ; Liu, Patrick ; Liu, Shiwei ; Lo, Loon-Tzian ; Lopez, Alan D ; Ma, Stefan ; El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd ; Majeed, Azeem ; Malekzadeh, Reza ; Malta, Deborah Carvalho ; Manamo, Wondimu Ayele ; Martinez-Raga, Jose ; Mekonnen, Alemayehu Berhane ; Mendoza, Walter ; Miller, Ted R ; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin ; Morawska, Lidia ; Musa, Kamarul Imran ; Nagel, Gabriele ; Neupane, Sudan Prasad ; Nguyen, Quyen ; Nguyen, Grant ; Oh, In-Hwan ; Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel ; PA, Mahesh ; Pana, Adrian ; Park, Eun-Kee ; Patil, Snehal T ; Patton, George C ; Pedro, Joao ; Qorbani, Mostafa ; Rafay, Anwar ; Rahman, Mahfuzar ; Rai, Rajesh Kumar ; Ram, Usha ; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal ; Refaat, Amany H ; Reinig, Nickolas ; Roba, Hirbo Shore ; Rodriguez, Alina ; Roman, Yesenia ; Roth, Gregory ; Roy, Ambuj ; Sagar, Rajesh ; Salomon, Joshua A ; Sanabria, Juan ; de Souza Santos, Itamar ; Sartorius, Benn ; Satpathy, Maheswar ; Sawhney, Monika ; Sawyer, Susan ; Saylan, Mete ; Schaub, Michael P ; Schluger, Neil ; Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth ; Sepanlou, Sadaf G ; Serdar, Berrin ; Shaikh, Masood Ali ; She, Jun ; Shin, Min-Jeong ; Shiri, Rahman ; Shishani, Kawkab ; Shiue, Ivy ; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora ; Silverberg, Jonathan I ; Singh, Jasvinder ; Singh, Virendra ; Slepak, Erica Leigh ; Soneji, Samir ; Soriano, Joan B ; Soshnikov, Sergey ; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T ; Stein, Dan J ; Stranges, Saverio ; Subart, Michelle L ; Swaminathan, Soumya ; Szoeke, Cassandra E I ; Tefera, Worku Mekonnen ; Topor-Madry, Roman ; Tran, Bach ; Tsilimparis, Nikolaos ; Tymeson, Hayley ; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna ; Updike, Rachel ; Uthman, Olalekan A ; Violante, Francesco Saverio ; Vladimirov, Sergey K ; Vlassov, Vasiliy ; Vollset, Stein Emil ; Vos, Theo ; Weiderpass, Elisabete ; Wen, Chi-Pan ; Werdecker, Andrea ; Wilson, Shelley ; Wubshet, Mamo ; Xiao, Lin ; Yakob, Bereket ; Yano, Yuichiro ; Ye, Penpeng ; Yonemoto, Naohiro ; Yoon, Seok-Jun ; Younis, Mustafa Z ; Yu, Chuanhua ; Zaidi, Zoubida ; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa ; Zhang, Anthony Lin ; Zipkin, Ben ; Murray, Christopher J L ; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H ; Gakidou, Emmanuela
creationdate20170513
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0Reitsma, Marissa B
1Fullman, Nancy
2Ng, Marie
3Salama, Joseph S
4Abajobir, Amanuel
5Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
6Abbafati, Cristiana
7Abera, Semaw Ferede
8Abraham, Biju
9Abyu, Gebre Yitayih
10Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi
11Al-Aly, Ziyad
12Aleman, Alicia V
13Ali, Raghib
14Al Alkerwi, Ala'a
15Allebeck, Peter
16Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad
17Amare, Azmeraw T
18Amberbir, Alemayehu
19Ammar, Walid
20Amrock, Stephen Marc
21Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
22Asayesh, Hamid
23Atnafu, Niguse Tadela
24Azzopardi, Peter
25Banerjee, Amitava
26Barac, Aleksandra
27Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh
28Basto-Abreu, Ana Cristina
29Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad
30Bedi, Neeraj
31Bell, Brent
32Bello, Aminu K
33Bensenor, Isabela M
34Beyene, Addisu Shunu
35Bhala, Neeraj
36Biryukov, Stan
37Bolt, Kaylin
38Brenner, Hermann
39Butt, Zahid
40Cavalleri, Fiorella
41Cercy, Kelly
42Chen, Honglei
43Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas
44Ciobanu, Liliana G
45Colistro, Valentina
46Colomar, Mercedes
47Cornaby, Leslie
48Dai, Xiaochen
49Damtew, Solomon Abrha
50Dandona, Lalit
51Dandona, Rakhi
52Dansereau, Emily
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57Dharmaratne, Samath D
58Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu
59Doyle, Kerrie E
60Endries, Aman Yesuf
61Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich
62Estep, Kara
63Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino
64Farzadfar, Farshad
65Feigin, Valery L
66Feigl, Andrea B
67Fischer, Florian
68Friedman, Joseph
69G/Hiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde
70Gall, Seana L
71Gao, Wayne
72Gillum, Richard F
73Gold, Audra L
74Gopalani, Sameer Vali
75Gotay, Carolyn C
76Gupta, Rahul
77Gupta, Rajeev
78Gupta, Vipin
79Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
80Hankey, Graeme
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82Hay, Simon I
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88Islami, Farhad
89Jiang, Guohong
90Jiang, Ying
91Jonas, Jost B
92Kabir, Zubair
93Kamal, Ritul
94Kasaeian, Amir
95Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair
96Khader, Yousef S
97Khalil, Ibrahim
98Khang, Young-Ho
99Khera, Sahil
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1Fullman, Nancy
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7Abera, Semaw Ferede
8Abraham, Biju
9Abyu, Gebre Yitayih
10Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi
11Al-Aly, Ziyad
12Aleman, Alicia V
13Ali, Raghib
14Al Alkerwi, Ala'a
15Allebeck, Peter
16Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad
17Amare, Azmeraw T
18Amberbir, Alemayehu
19Ammar, Walid
20Amrock, Stephen Marc
21Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
22Asayesh, Hamid
23Atnafu, Niguse Tadela
24Azzopardi, Peter
25Banerjee, Amitava
26Barac, Aleksandra
27Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh
28Basto-Abreu, Ana Cristina
29Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad
30Bedi, Neeraj
31Bell, Brent
32Bello, Aminu K
33Bensenor, Isabela M
34Beyene, Addisu Shunu
35Bhala, Neeraj
36Biryukov, Stan
37Bolt, Kaylin
38Brenner, Hermann
39Butt, Zahid
40Cavalleri, Fiorella
41Cercy, Kelly
42Chen, Honglei
43Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas
44Ciobanu, Liliana G
45Colistro, Valentina
46Colomar, Mercedes
47Cornaby, Leslie
48Dai, Xiaochen
49Damtew, Solomon Abrha
50Dandona, Lalit
51Dandona, Rakhi
52Dansereau, Emily
53Davletov, Kairat
54Dayama, Anand
55Degfie, Tizta Tilahun
56Deribew, Amare
57Dharmaratne, Samath D
58Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu
59Doyle, Kerrie E
60Endries, Aman Yesuf
61Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich
62Estep, Kara
63Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino
64Farzadfar, Farshad
65Feigin, Valery L
66Feigl, Andrea B
67Fischer, Florian
68Friedman, Joseph
69G/Hiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde
70Gall, Seana L
71Gao, Wayne
72Gillum, Richard F
73Gold, Audra L
74Gopalani, Sameer Vali
75Gotay, Carolyn C
76Gupta, Rahul
77Gupta, Rajeev
78Gupta, Vipin
79Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
80Hankey, Graeme
81Harb, Hilda L
82Hay, Simon I
83Horino, Masako
84Horita, Nobuyuki
85Hosgood, H Dean
86Husseini, Abdullatif
87Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile
88Islami, Farhad
89Jiang, Guohong
90Jiang, Ying
91Jonas, Jost B
92Kabir, Zubair
93Kamal, Ritul
94Kasaeian, Amir
95Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair
96Khader, Yousef S
97Khalil, Ibrahim
98Khang, Young-Ho
99Khera, Sahil
100...
atitleSmoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
jtitleThe Lancet
risdate20170513
volume389
issue10082
spage1885
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pages1885-1906
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pubElsevier Ltd
doi10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X
lad01The Lancet
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isbn0004009735000
date2017-05-13