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Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases,... Full description

Journal Title: The Lancet 16 September 2017, Vol.390(10100), pp.1423-1459
Main Author: Fullman, Nancy
Other Authors: Barber, Ryan M , Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu , Abate, Kalkidan Hassen , Abbafati, Cristiana , Abbas, Kaja M , Abd-Allah, Foad , Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi , Abdulle, Abdishakur M , Abera, Semaw Ferede , Aboyans, Victor , Abu-Raddad, Laith J , Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E , Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi , Adetokunboh, Olatunji , Afshin, Ashkan , Agrawal, Anurag , Agrawal, Sutapa , Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar , Ahmadieh, Hamid , Ahmed, Muktar Beshir , Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine , Aichour, Amani Nidhal , Aichour, Ibtihel , Aiyar, Sneha , Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola , Akseer, Nadia , Al-Aly, Ziyad , Alam, Khurshid , Alam, Noore , Alasfoor, Deena , Alene, Kefyalew Addis , Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza , Alkerwi, Ala'a , Alla, François , Allebeck, Peter , Allen, Christine , Al-Raddadi, Rajaa , Alsharif, Ubai , Altirkawi, Khalid A , Alvis-Guzman, Nelson , Amare, Azmeraw T , Amini, Erfan , Ammar, Walid , Ansari, Hossein , Antonio, Carl Abelardo T , Anwari, Palwasha , Arora, Megha , Artaman, Al , Aryal, Krishna Kumar , Asayesh, Hamid , Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal , Assadi, Reza , Atey, Tesfay Mehari , Atre, Sachin R , Avila-Burgos, Leticia , Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur , Awasthi, Ashish , Azzopardi, Peter , Bacha, Umar , Badawi, Alaa , Balakrishnan, Kalpana , Bannick, Marlena S , Barac, Aleksandra , Barker-Collo, Suzanne L , Bärnighausen, Till , Barrero, Lope H , Basu, Sanjay , Battle, Katherine E , Baune, Bernhard T , Beardsley, Justin , Bedi, Neeraj , Beghi, Ettore , Béjot, Yannick , Bell, Michelle L , Bennett, Derrick A , Bennett, James R , Bensenor, Isabela M , Berhane, Adugnaw , Berhe, Derbew Fikadu , Bernabé, Eduardo , Betsu, Balem Demtsu , Beuran, Mircea , Beyene, Addisu Shunu , Bhala, Neeraj , Bhansali, Anil , Bhatt, Samir , Bhutta, Zulfiqar A , Bicer, Burcu Kucuk , Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast , Bikbov, Boris , Bilal, Arebu I , Birungi, Charles , Biryukov, Stan , Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie , Blosser, Christopher D , Boneya, Dube Jara , Bose, Dipan , Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R , Brauer, Michael , Breitborde, Nicholas J K , Brugha, Traolach S , Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto , Butt, Zahid A , Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero , Cameron, Ewan , Campuzano, Julio Cesar , Carabin, Hélène , Cárdenas, Rosario , Carrero, Juan Jesus , Carter, Austin , Casey, Daniel C , Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A , Castro, Ruben Estanislao , Catalá-López, Ferrán , Cercy, Kelly , Chang, Hsing-Yi , Chang, Jung-Chen , Charlson, Fiona J , Chew, Adrienne , Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe , Chitheer, Abdulaal A , Christensen, Hanne , Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas , Cirillo, Massimo , Cooper, Cyrus , Criqui, Michael H , Cromwell, Elizabeth A , Crump, John A , Dandona, Lalit , Dandona, Rakhi , Dargan, Paul I , Das Neves, José , Davitoiu, Dragos V , de Courten, Barbora , De Steur, Hans , Defo, Barthelemy Kuate , Degenhardt, Louisa , Deiparine, Selina , Deribe, Kebede , Deveber, Gabrielle A , Ding, Eric L , Djalalinia, Shirin , Do, Huyen Phuc , Dokova, Klara , Doku, David Teye , Donkelaar, Aaron van , Dorsey, E Ray , Driscoll, Tim R , Dubey, Manisha , Duncan, Bruce Bartholow , Ebel, Beth E , Ebrahimi, Hedyeh , El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad , Enayati, Ahmadali , Endries, Aman Yesuf , Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich , Erskine, Holly E , Eshrati, Babak , Eskandarieh, Sharareh , Esteghamati, Alireza , Estep, Kara , Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino , Farinha, Carla Sofia E Sa , Faro, André , Farzadfar, Farshad , Fazeli, Mir Sohail , Feigin, Valery L , Feigl, Andrea B , Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad , Fernandes, João C , Ferrari, Alize J , Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa , Filip, Irina , Fischer, Florian , Fitzmaurice, Christina , Flaxman, Abraham D , Foigt, Nataliya , Foreman, Kyle J , Frank, Tahvi , Franklin, Richard C , Friedman, Joseph , Frostad, Joseph J , Fürst, Thomas , Furtado, Joao M , Gakidou, Emmanuela , Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L , Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde , Geleijnse, Johanna M , Geleto, Ayele , Gemechu, Bikila Lencha , Gething, Peter W , Gibney, Katherine B , Gill, Paramjit Singh , Gillum, Richard F , Giref, Ababi Zergaw , Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo , Giussani, Giorgia , Glenn, Scott D , Godwin, William W , Goldberg, Ellen M , Gona, Philimon N , Goodridge, Amador , Gopalani, Sameer Vali , Goryakin, Yevgeniy , Griswold, Max , Gugnani, Harish Chander , Gupta, Rajeev , Gupta, Tanush , Gupta, Vipin , Hafezi-Nejad, Nima , Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa , Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi , Hammami, Mouhanad , Hankey, Graeme J , Harb, Hilda L , Hareri, Habtamu Abera , Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh , Havmoeller, Rasmus , Hawley, Caitlin , Hay, Simon I , He, Jiawei , Hendrie, Delia , Henry, Nathaniel J , Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz , Hoek, Hans W , Holmberg, Mollie , Horita, Nobuyuki , Hosgood, H Dean , Hostiuc, Sorin , Hoy, Damian G , Hsairi, Mohamed , Htet, Aung Soe , Huang, John J , Huang, Hsiang , Huynh, Chantal , Iburg, Kim Moesgaard , Ikeda, Chad , Inoue, Manami , Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter , Jacobsen, Kathryn H , Jahanmehr, Nader , Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B , Jauregui, Alejandra , Javanbakht, Mehdi , Jeemon, Panniyammakal , Jha, Vivekanand , John, Denny , Johnson, Catherine O , Johnson, Sarah Charlotte
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
ID: ISSN: 0140-6736 ; E-ISSN: 1474-547X ; DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X
Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014067361732336X
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recordid: elsevier_sdoi_10_1016_S0140_6736_17_32336_X
title: Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
format: Article
creator:
  • Fullman, Nancy
  • Barber, Ryan M
  • Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
  • Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
  • Abbafati, Cristiana
  • Abbas, Kaja M
  • Abd-Allah, Foad
  • Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
  • Abdulle, Abdishakur M
  • Abera, Semaw Ferede
  • Aboyans, Victor
  • Abu-Raddad, Laith J
  • Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E
  • Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
  • Adetokunboh, Olatunji
  • Afshin, Ashkan
  • Agrawal, Anurag
  • Agrawal, Sutapa
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar
  • Ahmadieh, Hamid
  • Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
  • Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
  • Aichour, Amani Nidhal
  • Aichour, Ibtihel
  • Aiyar, Sneha
  • Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola
  • Akseer, Nadia
  • Al-Aly, Ziyad
  • Alam, Khurshid
  • Alam, Noore
  • Alasfoor, Deena
  • Alene, Kefyalew Addis
  • Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza
  • Alkerwi, Ala'a
  • Alla, François
  • Allebeck, Peter
  • Allen, Christine
  • Al-Raddadi, Rajaa
  • Alsharif, Ubai
  • Altirkawi, Khalid A
  • Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
  • Amare, Azmeraw T
  • Amini, Erfan
  • Ammar, Walid
  • Ansari, Hossein
  • Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
  • Anwari, Palwasha
  • Arora, Megha
  • Artaman, Al
  • Aryal, Krishna Kumar
  • Asayesh, Hamid
  • Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal
  • Assadi, Reza
  • Atey, Tesfay Mehari
  • Atre, Sachin R
  • Avila-Burgos, Leticia
  • Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur
  • Awasthi, Ashish
  • Azzopardi, Peter
  • Bacha, Umar
  • Badawi, Alaa
  • Balakrishnan, Kalpana
  • Bannick, Marlena S
  • Barac, Aleksandra
  • Barker-Collo, Suzanne L
  • Bärnighausen, Till
  • Barrero, Lope H
  • Basu, Sanjay
  • Battle, Katherine E
  • Baune, Bernhard T
  • Beardsley, Justin
  • Bedi, Neeraj
  • Beghi, Ettore
  • Béjot, Yannick
  • Bell, Michelle L
  • Bennett, Derrick A
  • Bennett, James R
  • Bensenor, Isabela M
  • Berhane, Adugnaw
  • Berhe, Derbew Fikadu
  • Bernabé, Eduardo
  • Betsu, Balem Demtsu
  • Beuran, Mircea
  • Beyene, Addisu Shunu
  • Bhala, Neeraj
  • Bhansali, Anil
  • Bhatt, Samir
  • Bhutta, Zulfiqar A
  • Bicer, Burcu Kucuk
  • Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast
  • Bikbov, Boris
  • Bilal, Arebu I
  • Birungi, Charles
  • Biryukov, Stan
  • Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie
  • Blosser, Christopher D
  • Boneya, Dube Jara
  • Bose, Dipan
  • Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R
  • Brauer, Michael
  • Breitborde, Nicholas J K
  • Brugha, Traolach S
  • Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto
  • Butt, Zahid A
  • Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero
  • Cameron, Ewan
  • Campuzano, Julio Cesar
  • Carabin, Hélène
  • Cárdenas, Rosario
  • Carrero, Juan Jesus
  • Carter, Austin
  • Casey, Daniel C
  • Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A
  • Castro, Ruben Estanislao
  • Catalá-López, Ferrán
  • Cercy, Kelly
  • Chang, Hsing-Yi
  • Chang, Jung-Chen
  • Charlson, Fiona J
  • Chew, Adrienne
  • Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe
  • Chitheer, Abdulaal A
  • Christensen, Hanne
  • Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas
  • Cirillo, Massimo
  • Cooper, Cyrus
  • Criqui, Michael H
  • Cromwell, Elizabeth A
  • Crump, John A
  • Dandona, Lalit
  • Dandona, Rakhi
  • Dargan, Paul I
  • Das Neves, José
  • Davitoiu, Dragos V
  • de Courten, Barbora
  • De Steur, Hans
  • Defo, Barthelemy Kuate
  • Degenhardt, Louisa
  • Deiparine, Selina
  • Deribe, Kebede
  • Deveber, Gabrielle A
  • Ding, Eric L
  • Djalalinia, Shirin
  • Do, Huyen Phuc
  • Dokova, Klara
  • Doku, David Teye
  • Donkelaar, Aaron van
  • Dorsey, E Ray
  • Driscoll, Tim R
  • Dubey, Manisha
  • Duncan, Bruce Bartholow
  • Ebel, Beth E
  • Ebrahimi, Hedyeh
  • El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad
  • Enayati, Ahmadali
  • Endries, Aman Yesuf
  • Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich
  • Erskine, Holly E
  • Eshrati, Babak
  • Eskandarieh, Sharareh
  • Esteghamati, Alireza
  • Estep, Kara
  • Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino
  • Farinha, Carla Sofia E Sa
  • Faro, André
  • Farzadfar, Farshad
  • Fazeli, Mir Sohail
  • Feigin, Valery L
  • Feigl, Andrea B
  • Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad
  • Fernandes, João C
  • Ferrari, Alize J
  • Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa
  • Filip, Irina
  • Fischer, Florian
  • Fitzmaurice, Christina
  • Flaxman, Abraham D
  • Foigt, Nataliya
  • Foreman, Kyle J
  • Frank, Tahvi
  • Franklin, Richard C
  • Friedman, Joseph
  • Frostad, Joseph J
  • Fürst, Thomas
  • Furtado, Joao M
  • Gakidou, Emmanuela
  • Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L
  • Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde
  • Geleijnse, Johanna M
  • Geleto, Ayele
  • Gemechu, Bikila Lencha
  • Gething, Peter W
  • Gibney, Katherine B
  • Gill, Paramjit Singh
  • Gillum, Richard F
  • Giref, Ababi Zergaw
  • Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo
  • Giussani, Giorgia
  • Glenn, Scott D
  • Godwin, William W
  • Goldberg, Ellen M
  • Gona, Philimon N
  • Goodridge, Amador
  • Gopalani, Sameer Vali
  • Goryakin, Yevgeniy
  • Griswold, Max
  • Gugnani, Harish Chander
  • Gupta, Rajeev
  • Gupta, Tanush
  • Gupta, Vipin
  • Hafezi-Nejad, Nima
  • Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa
  • Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
  • Hammami, Mouhanad
  • Hankey, Graeme J
  • Harb, Hilda L
  • Hareri, Habtamu Abera
  • Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh
  • Havmoeller, Rasmus
  • Hawley, Caitlin
  • Hay, Simon I
  • He, Jiawei
  • Hendrie, Delia
  • Henry, Nathaniel J
  • Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz
  • Hoek, Hans W
  • Holmberg, Mollie
  • Horita, Nobuyuki
  • Hosgood, H Dean
  • Hostiuc, Sorin
  • Hoy, Damian G
  • Hsairi, Mohamed
  • Htet, Aung Soe
  • Huang, John J
  • Huang, Hsiang
  • Huynh, Chantal
  • Iburg, Kim Moesgaard
  • Ikeda, Chad
  • Inoue, Manami
  • Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter
  • Jacobsen, Kathryn H
  • Jahanmehr, Nader
  • Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B
  • Jauregui, Alejandra
  • Javanbakht, Mehdi
  • Jeemon, Panniyammakal
  • Jha, Vivekanand
  • John, Denny
  • Johnson, Catherine O
  • Johnson, Sarah Charlotte
subjects:
  • Medicine
ispartof: The Lancet, 16 September 2017, Vol.390(10100), pp.1423-1459
description: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment con
language: eng
source:
identifier: ISSN: 0140-6736 ; E-ISSN: 1474-547X ; DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 0140-6736
  • 01406736
  • 1474-547X
  • 1474547X
url: Link


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titleMeasuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
creatorFullman, Nancy ; Barber, Ryan M ; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu ; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen ; Abbafati, Cristiana ; Abbas, Kaja M ; Abd-Allah, Foad ; Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi ; Abdulle, Abdishakur M ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Aboyans, Victor ; Abu-Raddad, Laith J ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E ; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi ; Adetokunboh, Olatunji ; Afshin, Ashkan ; Agrawal, Anurag ; Agrawal, Sutapa ; Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar ; Ahmadieh, Hamid ; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir ; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine ; Aichour, Amani Nidhal ; Aichour, Ibtihel ; Aiyar, Sneha ; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola ; Akseer, Nadia ; Al-Aly, Ziyad ; Alam, Khurshid ; Alam, Noore ; Alasfoor, Deena ; Alene, Kefyalew Addis ; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza ; Alkerwi, Ala'a ; Alla, François ; Allebeck, Peter ; Allen, Christine ; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa ; Alsharif, Ubai ; Altirkawi, Khalid A ; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson ; Amare, Azmeraw T ; Amini, Erfan ; Ammar, Walid ; Ansari, Hossein ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Arora, Megha ; Artaman, Al ; Aryal, Krishna Kumar ; Asayesh, Hamid ; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal ; Assadi, Reza ; Atey, Tesfay Mehari ; Atre, Sachin R ; Avila-Burgos, Leticia ; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur ; Awasthi, Ashish ; Azzopardi, Peter ; Bacha, Umar ; Badawi, Alaa ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Bannick, Marlena S ; Barac, Aleksandra ; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L ; Bärnighausen, Till ; Barrero, Lope H ; Basu, Sanjay ; Battle, Katherine E ; Baune, Bernhard T ; Beardsley, Justin ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Beghi, Ettore ; Béjot, Yannick ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bennett, Derrick A ; Bennett, James R ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Berhane, Adugnaw ; Berhe, Derbew Fikadu ; Bernabé, Eduardo ; Betsu, Balem Demtsu ; Beuran, Mircea ; Beyene, Addisu Shunu ; Bhala, Neeraj ; Bhansali, Anil ; Bhatt, Samir ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A ; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk ; Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast ; Bikbov, Boris ; Bilal, Arebu I ; Birungi, Charles ; Biryukov, Stan ; Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie ; Blosser, Christopher D ; Boneya, Dube Jara ; Bose, Dipan ; Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R ; Brauer, Michael ; Breitborde, Nicholas J K ; Brugha, Traolach S ; Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto ; Butt, Zahid A ; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero ; Cameron, Ewan ; Campuzano, Julio Cesar ; Carabin, Hélène ; Cárdenas, Rosario ; Carrero, Juan Jesus ; Carter, Austin ; Casey, Daniel C ; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A ; Castro, Ruben Estanislao ; Catalá-López, Ferrán ; Cercy, Kelly ; Chang, Hsing-Yi ; Chang, Jung-Chen ; Charlson, Fiona J ; Chew, Adrienne ; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe ; Chitheer, Abdulaal A ; Christensen, Hanne ; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas ; Cirillo, Massimo ; Cooper, Cyrus ; Criqui, Michael H ; Cromwell, Elizabeth A ; Crump, John A ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Dargan, Paul I ; Das Neves, José ; Davitoiu, Dragos V ; de Courten, Barbora ; De Steur, Hans ; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate ; Degenhardt, Louisa ; Deiparine, Selina ; Deribe, Kebede ; Deveber, Gabrielle A ; Ding, Eric L ; Djalalinia, Shirin ; Do, Huyen Phuc ; Dokova, Klara ; Doku, David Teye ; Donkelaar, Aaron van ; Dorsey, E Ray ; Driscoll, Tim R ; Dubey, Manisha ; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow ; Ebel, Beth E ; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh ; El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad ; Enayati, Ahmadali ; Endries, Aman Yesuf ; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich ; Erskine, Holly E ; Eshrati, Babak ; Eskandarieh, Sharareh ; Esteghamati, Alireza ; Estep, Kara ; Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino ; Farinha, Carla Sofia E Sa ; Faro, André ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Fazeli, Mir Sohail ; Feigin, Valery L ; Feigl, Andrea B ; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad ; Fernandes, João C ; Ferrari, Alize J ; Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa ; Filip, Irina ; Fischer, Florian ; Fitzmaurice, Christina ; Flaxman, Abraham D ; Foigt, Nataliya ; Foreman, Kyle J ; Frank, Tahvi ; Franklin, Richard C ; Friedman, Joseph ; Frostad, Joseph J ; Fürst, Thomas ; Furtado, Joao M ; Gakidou, Emmanuela ; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L ; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde ; Geleijnse, Johanna M ; Geleto, Ayele ; Gemechu, Bikila Lencha ; Gething, Peter W ; Gibney, Katherine B ; Gill, Paramjit Singh ; Gillum, Richard F ; Giref, Ababi Zergaw ; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo ; Giussani, Giorgia ; Glenn, Scott D ; Godwin, William W ; Goldberg, Ellen M ; Gona, Philimon N ; Goodridge, Amador ; Gopalani, Sameer Vali ; Goryakin, Yevgeniy ; Griswold, Max ; Gugnani, Harish Chander ; Gupta, Rajeev ; Gupta, Tanush ; Gupta, Vipin ; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima ; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa ; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi ; Hammami, Mouhanad ; Hankey, Graeme J ; Harb, Hilda L ; Hareri, Habtamu Abera ; Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh ; Havmoeller, Rasmus ; Hawley, Caitlin ; Hay, Simon I ; He, Jiawei ; Hendrie, Delia ; Henry, Nathaniel J ; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz ; Hoek, Hans W ; Holmberg, Mollie ; Horita, Nobuyuki ; Hosgood, H Dean ; Hostiuc, Sorin ; Hoy, Damian G ; Hsairi, Mohamed ; Htet, Aung Soe ; Huang, John J ; Huang, Hsiang ; Huynh, Chantal ; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard ; Ikeda, Chad ; Inoue, Manami ; Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter ; Jacobsen, Kathryn H ; Jahanmehr, Nader ; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B ; Jauregui, Alejandra ; Javanbakht, Mehdi ; Jeemon, Panniyammakal ; Jha, Vivekanand ; John, Denny ; Johnson, Catherine O ; Johnson, Sarah Charlotte
ispartofThe Lancet, 16 September 2017, Vol.390(10100), pp.1423-1459
identifier
subjectMedicine
descriptionThe UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2–8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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1Barber, Ryan M
2Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
3Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
4Abbafati, Cristiana
5Abbas, Kaja M
6Abd-Allah, Foad
7Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
8Abdulle, Abdishakur M
9Abera, Semaw Ferede
10Aboyans, Victor
11Abu-Raddad, Laith J
12Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E
13Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
14Adetokunboh, Olatunji
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16Agrawal, Anurag
17Agrawal, Sutapa
18Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar
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20Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
21Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
22Aichour, Amani Nidhal
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26Akseer, Nadia
27Al-Aly, Ziyad
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33Alkerwi, Ala'a
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35Allebeck, Peter
36Allen, Christine
37Al-Raddadi, Rajaa
38Alsharif, Ubai
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40Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
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91Bilal, Arebu I
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94Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie
95Blosser, Christopher D
96Boneya, Dube Jara
97Bose, Dipan
98Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R
99Brauer, Michael
100...
titleMeasuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
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titleMeasuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
authorFullman, Nancy ; Barber, Ryan M ; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu ; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen ; Abbafati, Cristiana ; Abbas, Kaja M ; Abd-Allah, Foad ; Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi ; Abdulle, Abdishakur M ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Aboyans, Victor ; Abu-Raddad, Laith J ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E ; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi ; Adetokunboh, Olatunji ; Afshin, Ashkan ; Agrawal, Anurag ; Agrawal, Sutapa ; Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar ; Ahmadieh, Hamid ; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir ; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine ; Aichour, Amani Nidhal ; Aichour, Ibtihel ; Aiyar, Sneha ; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola ; Akseer, Nadia ; Al-Aly, Ziyad ; Alam, Khurshid ; Alam, Noore ; Alasfoor, Deena ; Alene, Kefyalew Addis ; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza ; Alkerwi, Ala'a ; Alla, François ; Allebeck, Peter ; Allen, Christine ; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa ; Alsharif, Ubai ; Altirkawi, Khalid A ; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson ; Amare, Azmeraw T ; Amini, Erfan ; Ammar, Walid ; Ansari, Hossein ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Arora, Megha ; Artaman, Al ; Aryal, Krishna Kumar ; Asayesh, Hamid ; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal ; Assadi, Reza ; Atey, Tesfay Mehari ; Atre, Sachin R ; Avila-Burgos, Leticia ; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur ; Awasthi, Ashish ; Azzopardi, Peter ; Bacha, Umar ; Badawi, Alaa ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Bannick, Marlena S ; Barac, Aleksandra ; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L ; Bärnighausen, Till ; Barrero, Lope H ; Basu, Sanjay ; Battle, Katherine E ; Baune, Bernhard T ; Beardsley, Justin ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Beghi, Ettore ; Béjot, Yannick ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bennett, Derrick A ; Bennett, James R ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Berhane, Adugnaw ; Berhe, Derbew Fikadu ; Bernabé, Eduardo ; Betsu, Balem Demtsu ; Beuran, Mircea ; Beyene, Addisu Shunu ; Bhala, Neeraj ; Bhansali, Anil ; Bhatt, Samir ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A ; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk ; Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast ; Bikbov, Boris ; Bilal, Arebu I ; Birungi, Charles ; Biryukov, Stan ; Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie ; Blosser, Christopher D ; Boneya, Dube Jara ; Bose, Dipan ; Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R ; Brauer, Michael ; Breitborde, Nicholas J K ; Brugha, Traolach S ; Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto ; Butt, Zahid A ; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero ; Cameron, Ewan ; Campuzano, Julio Cesar ; Carabin, Hélène ; Cárdenas, Rosario ; Carrero, Juan Jesus ; Carter, Austin ; Casey, Daniel C ; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A ; Castro, Ruben Estanislao ; Catalá-López, Ferrán ; Cercy, Kelly ; Chang, Hsing-Yi ; Chang, Jung-Chen ; Charlson, Fiona J ; Chew, Adrienne ; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe ; Chitheer, Abdulaal A ; Christensen, Hanne ; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas ; Cirillo, Massimo ; Cooper, Cyrus ; Criqui, Michael H ; Cromwell, Elizabeth A ; Crump, John A ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Dargan, Paul I ; Das Neves, José ; Davitoiu, Dragos V ; de Courten, Barbora ; De Steur, Hans ; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate ; Degenhardt, Louisa ; Deiparine, Selina ; Deribe, Kebede ; Deveber, Gabrielle A ; Ding, Eric L ; Djalalinia, Shirin ; Do, Huyen Phuc ; Dokova, Klara ; Doku, David Teye ; Donkelaar, Aaron van ; Dorsey, E Ray ; Driscoll, Tim R ; Dubey, Manisha ; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow ; Ebel, Beth E ; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh ; El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad ; Enayati, Ahmadali ; Endries, Aman Yesuf ; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich ; Erskine, Holly E ; Eshrati, Babak ; Eskandarieh, Sharareh ; Esteghamati, Alireza ; Estep, Kara ; Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino ; Farinha, Carla Sofia E Sa ; Faro, André ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Fazeli, Mir Sohail ; Feigin, Valery L ; Feigl, Andrea B ; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad ; Fernandes, João C ; Ferrari, Alize J ; Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa ; Filip, Irina ; Fischer, Florian ; Fitzmaurice, Christina ; Flaxman, Abraham D ; Foigt, Nataliya ; Foreman, Kyle J ; Frank, Tahvi ; Franklin, Richard C ; Friedman, Joseph ; Frostad, Joseph J ; Fürst, Thomas ; Furtado, Joao M ; Gakidou, Emmanuela ; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L ; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde ; Geleijnse, Johanna M ; Geleto, Ayele ; Gemechu, Bikila Lencha ; Gething, Peter W ; Gibney, Katherine B ; Gill, Paramjit Singh ; Gillum, Richard F ; Giref, Ababi Zergaw ; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo ; Giussani, Giorgia ; Glenn, Scott D ; Godwin, William W ; Goldberg, Ellen M ; Gona, Philimon N ; Goodridge, Amador ; Gopalani, Sameer Vali ; Goryakin, Yevgeniy ; Griswold, Max ; Gugnani, Harish Chander ; Gupta, Rajeev ; Gupta, Tanush ; Gupta, Vipin ; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima ; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa ; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi ; Hammami, Mouhanad ; Hankey, Graeme J ; Harb, Hilda L ; Hareri, Habtamu Abera ; Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh ; Havmoeller, Rasmus ; Hawley, Caitlin ; Hay, Simon I ; He, Jiawei ; Hendrie, Delia ; Henry, Nathaniel J ; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz ; Hoek, Hans W ; Holmberg, Mollie ; Horita, Nobuyuki ; Hosgood, H Dean ; Hostiuc, Sorin ; Hoy, Damian G ; Hsairi, Mohamed ; Htet, Aung Soe ; Huang, John J ; Huang, Hsiang ; Huynh, Chantal ; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard ; Ikeda, Chad ; Inoue, Manami ; Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter ; Jacobsen, Kathryn H ; Jahanmehr, Nader ; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B ; Jauregui, Alejandra ; Javanbakht, Mehdi ; Jeemon, Panniyammakal ; Jha, Vivekanand ; John, Denny ; Johnson, Catherine O ; Johnson, Sarah Charlotte
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0Fullman, Nancy
1Barber, Ryan M
2Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
3Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
4Abbafati, Cristiana
5Abbas, Kaja M
6Abd-Allah, Foad
7Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
8Abdulle, Abdishakur M
9Abera, Semaw Ferede
10Aboyans, Victor
11Abu-Raddad, Laith J
12Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E
13Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
14Adetokunboh, Olatunji
15Afshin, Ashkan
16Agrawal, Anurag
17Agrawal, Sutapa
18Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar
19Ahmadieh, Hamid
20Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
21Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
22Aichour, Amani Nidhal
23Aichour, Ibtihel
24Aiyar, Sneha
25Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola
26Akseer, Nadia
27Al-Aly, Ziyad
28Alam, Khurshid
29Alam, Noore
30Alasfoor, Deena
31Alene, Kefyalew Addis
32Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza
33Alkerwi, Ala'a
34Alla, François
35Allebeck, Peter
36Allen, Christine
37Al-Raddadi, Rajaa
38Alsharif, Ubai
39Altirkawi, Khalid A
40Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
41Amare, Azmeraw T
42Amini, Erfan
43Ammar, Walid
44Ansari, Hossein
45Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
46Anwari, Palwasha
47Arora, Megha
48Artaman, Al
49Aryal, Krishna Kumar
50Asayesh, Hamid
51Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal
52Assadi, Reza
53Atey, Tesfay Mehari
54Atre, Sachin R
55Avila-Burgos, Leticia
56Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur
57Awasthi, Ashish
58Azzopardi, Peter
59Bacha, Umar
60Badawi, Alaa
61Balakrishnan, Kalpana
62Bannick, Marlena S
63Barac, Aleksandra
64Barker-Collo, Suzanne L
65Bärnighausen, Till
66Barrero, Lope H
67Basu, Sanjay
68Battle, Katherine E
69Baune, Bernhard T
70Beardsley, Justin
71Bedi, Neeraj
72Beghi, Ettore
73Béjot, Yannick
74Bell, Michelle L
75Bennett, Derrick A
76Bennett, James R
77Bensenor, Isabela M
78Berhane, Adugnaw
79Berhe, Derbew Fikadu
80Bernabé, Eduardo
81Betsu, Balem Demtsu
82Beuran, Mircea
83Beyene, Addisu Shunu
84Bhala, Neeraj
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86Bhatt, Samir
87Bhutta, Zulfiqar A
88Bicer, Burcu Kucuk
89Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast
90Bikbov, Boris
91Bilal, Arebu I
92Birungi, Charles
93Biryukov, Stan
94Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie
95Blosser, Christopher D
96Boneya, Dube Jara
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98Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R
99Brauer, Michael
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64Sanjay
65Katherine E
66Bernhard T
67Justin
68Neeraj
69Ettore
70Yannick
71Michelle L
72Derrick A
73James R
74Isabela M
75Adugnaw
76Derbew Fikadu
77Eduardo
78Balem Demtsu
79Mircea
80Addisu Shunu
81Anil
82Samir
83Zulfiqar A
84Burcu Kucuk
85Hassan Haghparast
86Boris
87Arebu I
88Charles
89Stan
90Habtamu Mellie
91Christopher D
92Dube Jara
93Dipan
94Ibrahim R
95Michael
96Nicholas J K
97Traolach S
98Lemma Negesa Bulto
99Zahid A
100...
auinitN
auinit1N
au
0Fullman, Nancy
1Barber, Ryan M
2Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
3Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
4Abbafati, Cristiana
5Abbas, Kaja M
6Abd-Allah, Foad
7Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
8Abdulle, Abdishakur M
9Abera, Semaw Ferede
10Aboyans, Victor
11Abu-Raddad, Laith J
12Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E
13Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
14Adetokunboh, Olatunji
15Afshin, Ashkan
16Agrawal, Anurag
17Agrawal, Sutapa
18Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar
19Ahmadieh, Hamid
20Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
21Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
22Aichour, Amani Nidhal
23Aichour, Ibtihel
24Aiyar, Sneha
25Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola
26Akseer, Nadia
27Al-Aly, Ziyad
28Alam, Khurshid
29Alam, Noore
30Alasfoor, Deena
31Alene, Kefyalew Addis
32Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza
33Alkerwi, Ala'a
34Alla, François
35Allebeck, Peter
36Allen, Christine
37Al-Raddadi, Rajaa
38Alsharif, Ubai
39Altirkawi, Khalid A
40Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
41Amare, Azmeraw T
42Amini, Erfan
43Ammar, Walid
44Ansari, Hossein
45Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
46Anwari, Palwasha
47Arora, Megha
48Artaman, Al
49Aryal, Krishna Kumar
50Asayesh, Hamid
51Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal
52Assadi, Reza
53Atey, Tesfay Mehari
54Atre, Sachin R
55Avila-Burgos, Leticia
56Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur
57Awasthi, Ashish
58Azzopardi, Peter
59Bacha, Umar
60Badawi, Alaa
61Balakrishnan, Kalpana
62Bannick, Marlena S
63Barac, Aleksandra
64Barker-Collo, Suzanne L
65Bärnighausen, Till
66Barrero, Lope H
67Basu, Sanjay
68Battle, Katherine E
69Baune, Bernhard T
70Beardsley, Justin
71Bedi, Neeraj
72Beghi, Ettore
73Béjot, Yannick
74Bell, Michelle L
75Bennett, Derrick A
76Bennett, James R
77Bensenor, Isabela M
78Berhane, Adugnaw
79Berhe, Derbew Fikadu
80Bernabé, Eduardo
81Betsu, Balem Demtsu
82Beuran, Mircea
83Beyene, Addisu Shunu
84Bhala, Neeraj
85Bhansali, Anil
86Bhatt, Samir
87Bhutta, Zulfiqar A
88Bicer, Burcu Kucuk
89Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast
90Bikbov, Boris
91Bilal, Arebu I
92Birungi, Charles
93Biryukov, Stan
94Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie
95Blosser, Christopher D
96Boneya, Dube Jara
97Bose, Dipan
98Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R
99Brauer, Michael
100...
atitleMeasuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
jtitleThe Lancet
risdate20170916
volume390
issue10100
spage1423
epage1459
pages1423-1459
issn0140-6736
eissn1474-547X
formatjournal
genrearticle
ristypeJOUR
abstract
pubElsevier Ltd
doi10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X
lad01The Lancet
oafree_for_read
orcidid0000-0003-3161-0402
date2017-09-16