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Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exempl... Full description

Journal Title: LANCET 2017
Main Author: Wang, Haidong
Other Authors: Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu , Abate, Kalkidan Hassen , Abbafati, Cristiana , Abbas, Kaja M , Abd - Allah, Foad , Abera, Semaw Ferede , Abraha, Haftom Niguse , Abu - Raddad, Laith J , Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me , Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi , Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji , Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O , Adetokunboh, Olatunji , Afshin, Ashkan , Aggarwal, Rakesh , Agrawal, Anurag , Agrawal, Sutapa , Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad , Ahmed, Muktar Beshir , Aichour, Amani Nidhal , Aichour, Ibthiel , Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine , Aiyar, Sneha , Akanda, Shafqat , Akinyemiju, Tomi F , Akseer, Nadia , Al - Eyadhy, Ayman , Al Lami, Faris Hasan , Alabed, Samer , Alahdab, Fares , Al - Aly, Ziyad , Alam, Khurshid , Alam, Noore , Alasfoor, Deena , Aldridge, Robert William , Alene, Kefyalew Addis , Alhabib, Samia , Ali, Raghib , Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza , Aljunid, Syed M , Alkaabi, Juma M , Alkerwi, Ala'A , Alla, Francois , Allam, Shalini D , Allebeck, Peter , Al - Raddadi, Rajaa , Alsharif, Ubai , Altirkawi, Khalid A , Martin, Elena Alvarez , Alvis - Guzman, Nelson , Amare, Azmeraw T , Ameh, Emmanuel A , Amini, Erfan , Ammar, Walid , Amoako, Yaw Ampem , Anber, Nahla , Andrei, Catalina Liliana , Androudi, Sofia , Ansari, Hossein , Ansha, Mustafa Geleto , Antonio, Carl Abelardo T , Anwari, Palwasha , Arnlov, Johan , Arora, Megha , Al Artaman, Al Artaman , Aryal, Krishna Kumar , Asayesh, Hamid , Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal , Asghar, Rana Jawad , Assadi, Reza , Atey, Tesfay Mehari , Atre, Sachin R , Avila - Burgos, Leticia , Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur , Awasthi, Ashish , Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala , Babalola, Tesleem Kayode , Bacha, Umar , Badawi, Alaa , Balakrishnan, Kalpana , Balalla, Shivanthi , Barac, Aleksandra , Barber, Ryan M , Barboza, Miguel A , Barker - Collo, Suzanne L , Barnighausen, Till , Barquera, Simon , Barregard, Lars , Barrero, Lope H , Baune, Bernhard T , Bazargan - Hejazi, Shahrzad , Bedi, Neeraj , Beghi, Ettore , Bejot, Yannick , Bekele, Bayu Begashaw , Bell, Michelle L , Bello, Aminu K , Bennett, Derrick A , Bennett, James R , Bensenor, Isabela M , Benson, Jennifer , Berhane, Adugnaw , Berhe, Derbew Fikadu , Bernabe, Eduardo , Beuran, Mircea , Beyene, Addisu Shunu , Bhala, Neeraj , Bhansali, Anil , Bhaumik, Soumyadeep , Bhutta, Zulfiqar A , Bikbov, Boris , Birungi, Charles , Biryukov, Stan , Bisanzio, Donal , Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie , Bjerregaard, Peter , Blosser, Christopher D , Boneya, Dube Jara , Boufous, Soufiane , Bourne, Rupert Ra , Brazinova, Alexandra , Breitborde, Nicholas Jk , Brenner, Hermann , Brugha, Traolach S , Bukhman, Gene , Negesa, Lemma , Bulto, Bulto , Bumgarner, Blair Randal , Burch, Michael , Butt, Zahid A , Cahill, Leah E , Cahuana - Hurtado, Lucero , Campos - Nonato, Ismael Ricardo , Car, Josip , Car, Mate , Crdenas, Rosario , Carpenter, David O , Carrero, Juan Jesus , Carter, Austin , Castaneda - Orjuela, Carlos A , Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo , Castro, Franz F , Castro, Ruben Estanislao , Catala - Lopez, Ferran , Chen, Honglei , Chiang, Peggy Pei - Chia , Chibalabala, Mirriam , Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe , Chitheer, Abdulaal A , Choi, Jee - Young Jasmine , Christensen, Hanne , Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas , Ciobanu, Liliana G , Cirillo, Massimo , Cohen, Aaron J , Colquhoun, Samantha M , Coresh, Josef , Criqui, Michael H , Cromwell, Elizabeth A , Crump, John A , Dandona, Lalit , Dandona, Rakhi , Dargan, Paul I , Das Neves, Jose , Davey, Gail , Davitoiu, Dragos V , Davletov, Kairat , De Courten, Barbora , De Leo, Diego , Degenhardt, Louisa , Deiparine, Selina , Dellavalle, Robert P , Deribe, Kebede , Deribew, Amare , Des Jarlais, Don C , Dey, Subhojit , Dharmaratne, Samath D , Dherani, Mukesh K , Diaz - Torne, Cesar , Ding, Eric L , Dixit, Priyanka , Djalalinia, Shirin , Huyen Phuc Do, Huyen Phuc Do , Doku, David Teye , Donnelly, Christl Ann , Priscila, Kadine , Dos Santos, Bender , Douwes - Schultz, Dirk , Driscoll, Tim R , Duan, Leilei , Dubey, Manisha , Duncan, Bruce Bartholow , Dwivedi, Laxmi Kant , Ebrahimi, Hedyeh , El Bcheraoui, Charbel , Ellingsen, Christian Lycke , Enayati, Ahmadali , Endries, Aman Yesuf , Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich , Eshetie, Setegn , Eshrati, Babak , Eskandarieh, Sharareh , Esteghamati, Alireza , Estep, Kara , Fanuel, Belaneh Bekele Fanuel , Faro, Andre , Farvid, Maryam S , Farzadfar, Farshad , Feigin, Valery L , Fereshtehnejad, Seyed - Mhammad , Fernandes, Jefferson G , Fernandes, Joao C , Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa , Filip, Irina , Fischer, Florian , Foigt, Nataliya , Foreman, Kyle J , Frank, Tahvi , Franklin, Richard C , Fraser, Maya , Friedman, Joseph , Frostad, Joseph J , Fullman, Nancy , Furst, Thomas , Furtado, Joao M , Futran, Neal D , Gakidou, Emmanuela , Gambashidze, Ketevan , Gamkrelidze, Amiran , Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho , Garcia - Basteiro, Alberto L , Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe , Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde , Gebrekidan, Kahsu Gebrekirstos , Gebremichael, Mengistu Welday , Gelaye, Amha Admasie , Geleijnse, Johanna M , Gemechu, Bikila Lencha , Gemechu, Kasiye Shiferaw , Genova - Maleras, Ricard , Gesesew, Hailay Abrha , Gething, Peter W , Gibney, Katherine B , Gill, Paramjit Singh , Gillum, Richard F , Giref, Ababi Zergaw , Girma, Bedilu Weji , Giussani, Giorgia , Goenka, Shifalika
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
Hiv
Created: 2017
ID: ISSN: 0140-6736 ; ISSN: 1474-547X ; DOI: 10.10.6/S0140-6736(17)31833-0
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recordid: ghent8533286
title: Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
format: Article
creator:
  • Wang, Haidong
  • Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
  • Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
  • Abbafati, Cristiana
  • Abbas, Kaja M
  • Abd - Allah, Foad
  • Abera, Semaw Ferede
  • Abraha, Haftom Niguse
  • Abu - Raddad, Laith J
  • Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me
  • Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
  • Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji
  • Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O
  • Adetokunboh, Olatunji
  • Afshin, Ashkan
  • Aggarwal, Rakesh
  • Agrawal, Anurag
  • Agrawal, Sutapa
  • Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad
  • Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
  • Aichour, Amani Nidhal
  • Aichour, Ibthiel
  • Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
  • Aiyar, Sneha
  • Akanda, Shafqat
  • Akinyemiju, Tomi F
  • Akseer, Nadia
  • Al - Eyadhy, Ayman
  • Al Lami, Faris Hasan
  • Alabed, Samer
  • Alahdab, Fares
  • Al - Aly, Ziyad
  • Alam, Khurshid
  • Alam, Noore
  • Alasfoor, Deena
  • Aldridge, Robert William
  • Alene, Kefyalew Addis
  • Alhabib, Samia
  • Ali, Raghib
  • Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza
  • Aljunid, Syed M
  • Alkaabi, Juma M
  • Alkerwi, Ala'A
  • Alla, Francois
  • Allam, Shalini D
  • Allebeck, Peter
  • Al - Raddadi, Rajaa
  • Alsharif, Ubai
  • Altirkawi, Khalid A
  • Martin, Elena Alvarez
  • Alvis - Guzman, Nelson
  • Amare, Azmeraw T
  • Ameh, Emmanuel A
  • Amini, Erfan
  • Ammar, Walid
  • Amoako, Yaw Ampem
  • Anber, Nahla
  • Andrei, Catalina Liliana
  • Androudi, Sofia
  • Ansari, Hossein
  • Ansha, Mustafa Geleto
  • Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
  • Anwari, Palwasha
  • Arnlov, Johan
  • Arora, Megha
  • Al Artaman, Al Artaman
  • Aryal, Krishna Kumar
  • Asayesh, Hamid
  • Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal
  • Asghar, Rana Jawad
  • Assadi, Reza
  • Atey, Tesfay Mehari
  • Atre, Sachin R
  • Avila - Burgos, Leticia
  • Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur
  • Awasthi, Ashish
  • Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala
  • Babalola, Tesleem Kayode
  • Bacha, Umar
  • Badawi, Alaa
  • Balakrishnan, Kalpana
  • Balalla, Shivanthi
  • Barac, Aleksandra
  • Barber, Ryan M
  • Barboza, Miguel A
  • Barker - Collo, Suzanne L
  • Barnighausen, Till
  • Barquera, Simon
  • Barregard, Lars
  • Barrero, Lope H
  • Baune, Bernhard T
  • Bazargan - Hejazi, Shahrzad
  • Bedi, Neeraj
  • Beghi, Ettore
  • Bejot, Yannick
  • Bekele, Bayu Begashaw
  • Bell, Michelle L
  • Bello, Aminu K
  • Bennett, Derrick A
  • Bennett, James R
  • Bensenor, Isabela M
  • Benson, Jennifer
  • Berhane, Adugnaw
  • Berhe, Derbew Fikadu
  • Bernabe, Eduardo
  • Beuran, Mircea
  • Beyene, Addisu Shunu
  • Bhala, Neeraj
  • Bhansali, Anil
  • Bhaumik, Soumyadeep
  • Bhutta, Zulfiqar A
  • Bikbov, Boris
  • Birungi, Charles
  • Biryukov, Stan
  • Bisanzio, Donal
  • Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie
  • Bjerregaard, Peter
  • Blosser, Christopher D
  • Boneya, Dube Jara
  • Boufous, Soufiane
  • Bourne, Rupert Ra
  • Brazinova, Alexandra
  • Breitborde, Nicholas Jk
  • Brenner, Hermann
  • Brugha, Traolach S
  • Bukhman, Gene
  • Negesa, Lemma
  • Bulto, Bulto
  • Bumgarner, Blair Randal
  • Burch, Michael
  • Butt, Zahid A
  • Cahill, Leah E
  • Cahuana - Hurtado, Lucero
  • Campos - Nonato, Ismael Ricardo
  • Car, Josip
  • Car, Mate
  • Crdenas, Rosario
  • Carpenter, David O
  • Carrero, Juan Jesus
  • Carter, Austin
  • Castaneda - Orjuela, Carlos A
  • Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo
  • Castro, Franz F
  • Castro, Ruben Estanislao
  • Catala - Lopez, Ferran
  • Chen, Honglei
  • Chiang, Peggy Pei - Chia
  • Chibalabala, Mirriam
  • Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe
  • Chitheer, Abdulaal A
  • Choi, Jee - Young Jasmine
  • Christensen, Hanne
  • Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas
  • Ciobanu, Liliana G
  • Cirillo, Massimo
  • Cohen, Aaron J
  • Colquhoun, Samantha M
  • Coresh, Josef
  • Criqui, Michael H
  • Cromwell, Elizabeth A
  • Crump, John A
  • Dandona, Lalit
  • Dandona, Rakhi
  • Dargan, Paul I
  • Das Neves, Jose
  • Davey, Gail
  • Davitoiu, Dragos V
  • Davletov, Kairat
  • De Courten, Barbora
  • De Leo, Diego
  • Degenhardt, Louisa
  • Deiparine, Selina
  • Dellavalle, Robert P
  • Deribe, Kebede
  • Deribew, Amare
  • Des Jarlais, Don C
  • Dey, Subhojit
  • Dharmaratne, Samath D
  • Dherani, Mukesh K
  • Diaz - Torne, Cesar
  • Ding, Eric L
  • Dixit, Priyanka
  • Djalalinia, Shirin
  • Huyen Phuc Do, Huyen Phuc Do
  • Doku, David Teye
  • Donnelly, Christl Ann
  • Priscila, Kadine
  • Dos Santos, Bender
  • Douwes - Schultz, Dirk
  • Driscoll, Tim R
  • Duan, Leilei
  • Dubey, Manisha
  • Duncan, Bruce Bartholow
  • Dwivedi, Laxmi Kant
  • Ebrahimi, Hedyeh
  • El Bcheraoui, Charbel
  • Ellingsen, Christian Lycke
  • Enayati, Ahmadali
  • Endries, Aman Yesuf
  • Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich
  • Eshetie, Setegn
  • Eshrati, Babak
  • Eskandarieh, Sharareh
  • Esteghamati, Alireza
  • Estep, Kara
  • Fanuel, Belaneh Bekele Fanuel
  • Faro, Andre
  • Farvid, Maryam S
  • Farzadfar, Farshad
  • Feigin, Valery L
  • Fereshtehnejad, Seyed - Mhammad
  • Fernandes, Jefferson G
  • Fernandes, Joao C
  • Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa
  • Filip, Irina
  • Fischer, Florian
  • Foigt, Nataliya
  • Foreman, Kyle J
  • Frank, Tahvi
  • Franklin, Richard C
  • Fraser, Maya
  • Friedman, Joseph
  • Frostad, Joseph J
  • Fullman, Nancy
  • Furst, Thomas
  • Furtado, Joao M
  • Futran, Neal D
  • Gakidou, Emmanuela
  • Gambashidze, Ketevan
  • Gamkrelidze, Amiran
  • Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho
  • Garcia - Basteiro, Alberto L
  • Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe
  • Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde
  • Gebrekidan, Kahsu Gebrekirstos
  • Gebremichael, Mengistu Welday
  • Gelaye, Amha Admasie
  • Geleijnse, Johanna M
  • Gemechu, Bikila Lencha
  • Gemechu, Kasiye Shiferaw
  • Genova - Maleras, Ricard
  • Gesesew, Hailay Abrha
  • Gething, Peter W
  • Gibney, Katherine B
  • Gill, Paramjit Singh
  • Gillum, Richard F
  • Giref, Ababi Zergaw
  • Girma, Bedilu Weji
  • Giussani, Giorgia
  • Goenka, Shifalika
subjects:
  • Medicine And Health Sciences
  • Developing-Countries
  • Russian Mortality
  • Child-Mortality
  • Health
  • Hiv
  • Metaanalysis
  • Survival
  • Alcohol
  • Income
  • Death
ispartof: LANCET, 2017
description: Background: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV
language: eng
source:
identifier: ISSN: 0140-6736 ; ISSN: 1474-547X ; DOI: 10.10.6/S0140-6736(17)31833-0
fulltext: fulltext_linktorsrc
issn:
  • 0140 6736
  • 0140-6736
  • 1474 547X
  • 1474-547X
url: Link


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titleGlobal, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
creatorWang, Haidong ; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu ; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen ; Abbafati, Cristiana ; Abbas, Kaja M ; Abd - Allah, Foad ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Abraha, Haftom Niguse ; Abu - Raddad, Laith J ; Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me ; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi ; Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji ; Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O ; Adetokunboh, Olatunji ; Afshin, Ashkan ; Aggarwal, Rakesh ; Agrawal, Anurag ; Agrawal, Sutapa ; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad ; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir ; Aichour, Amani Nidhal ; Aichour, Ibthiel ; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine ; Aiyar, Sneha ; Akanda, Shafqat ; Akinyemiju, Tomi F ; Akseer, Nadia ; Al - Eyadhy, Ayman ; Al Lami, Faris Hasan ; Alabed, Samer ; Alahdab, Fares ; Al - Aly, Ziyad ; Alam, Khurshid ; Alam, Noore ; Alasfoor, Deena ; Aldridge, Robert William ; Alene, Kefyalew Addis ; Alhabib, Samia ; Ali, Raghib ; Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza ; Aljunid, Syed M ; Alkaabi, Juma M ; Alkerwi, Ala'A ; Alla, Francois ; Allam, Shalini D ; Allebeck, Peter ; Al - Raddadi, Rajaa ; Alsharif, Ubai ; Altirkawi, Khalid A ; Martin, Elena Alvarez ; Alvis - Guzman, Nelson ; Amare, Azmeraw T ; Ameh, Emmanuel A ; Amini, Erfan ; Ammar, Walid ; Amoako, Yaw Ampem ; Anber, Nahla ; Andrei, Catalina Liliana ; Androudi, Sofia ; Ansari, Hossein ; Ansha, Mustafa Geleto ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Arnlov, Johan ; Arora, Megha ; Al Artaman, Al Artaman ; Aryal, Krishna Kumar ; Asayesh, Hamid ; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal ; Asghar, Rana Jawad ; Assadi, Reza ; Atey, Tesfay Mehari ; Atre, Sachin R ; Avila - Burgos, Leticia ; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur ; Awasthi, Ashish ; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala ; Babalola, Tesleem Kayode ; Bacha, Umar ; Badawi, Alaa ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Balalla, Shivanthi ; Barac, Aleksandra ; Barber, Ryan M ; Barboza, Miguel A ; Barker - Collo, Suzanne L ; Barnighausen, Till ; Barquera, Simon ; Barregard, Lars ; Barrero, Lope H ; Baune, Bernhard T ; Bazargan - Hejazi, Shahrzad ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Beghi, Ettore ; Bejot, Yannick ; Bekele, Bayu Begashaw ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bello, Aminu K ; Bennett, Derrick A ; Bennett, James R ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Benson, Jennifer ; Berhane, Adugnaw ; Berhe, Derbew Fikadu ; Bernabe, Eduardo ; Beuran, Mircea ; Beyene, Addisu Shunu ; Bhala, Neeraj ; Bhansali, Anil ; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A ; Bikbov, Boris ; Birungi, Charles ; Biryukov, Stan ; Bisanzio, Donal ; Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie ; Bjerregaard, Peter ; Blosser, Christopher D ; Boneya, Dube Jara ; Boufous, Soufiane ; Bourne, Rupert Ra ; Brazinova, Alexandra ; Breitborde, Nicholas Jk ; Brenner, Hermann ; Brugha, Traolach S ; Bukhman, Gene ; Negesa, Lemma ; Bulto, Bulto ; Bumgarner, Blair Randal ; Burch, Michael ; Butt, Zahid A ; Cahill, Leah E ; Cahuana - Hurtado, Lucero ; Campos - Nonato, Ismael Ricardo ; Car, Josip ; Car, Mate ; Crdenas, Rosario ; Carpenter, David O ; Carrero, Juan Jesus ; Carter, Austin ; Castaneda - Orjuela, Carlos A ; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo ; Castro, Franz F ; Castro, Ruben Estanislao ; Catala - Lopez, Ferran ; Chen, Honglei ; Chiang, Peggy Pei - Chia ; Chibalabala, Mirriam ; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe ; Chitheer, Abdulaal A ; Choi, Jee - Young Jasmine ; Christensen, Hanne ; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas ; Ciobanu, Liliana G ; Cirillo, Massimo ; Cohen, Aaron J ; Colquhoun, Samantha M ; Coresh, Josef ; Criqui, Michael H ; Cromwell, Elizabeth A ; Crump, John A ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Dargan, Paul I ; Das Neves, Jose ; Davey, Gail ; Davitoiu, Dragos V ; Davletov, Kairat ; De Courten, Barbora ; De Leo, Diego ; Degenhardt, Louisa ; Deiparine, Selina ; Dellavalle, Robert P ; Deribe, Kebede ; Deribew, Amare ; Des Jarlais, Don C ; Dey, Subhojit ; Dharmaratne, Samath D ; Dherani, Mukesh K ; Diaz - Torne, Cesar ; Ding, Eric L ; Dixit, Priyanka ; Djalalinia, Shirin ; Huyen Phuc Do, Huyen Phuc Do ; Doku, David Teye ; Donnelly, Christl Ann ; Priscila, Kadine ; Dos Santos, Bender ; Douwes - Schultz, Dirk ; Driscoll, Tim R ; Duan, Leilei ; Dubey, Manisha ; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow ; Dwivedi, Laxmi Kant ; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh ; El Bcheraoui, Charbel ; Ellingsen, Christian Lycke ; Enayati, Ahmadali ; Endries, Aman Yesuf ; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich ; Eshetie, Setegn ; Eshrati, Babak ; Eskandarieh, Sharareh ; Esteghamati, Alireza ; Estep, Kara ; Fanuel, Belaneh Bekele Fanuel ; Faro, Andre ; Farvid, Maryam S ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Feigin, Valery L ; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed - Mhammad ; Fernandes, Jefferson G ; Fernandes, Joao C ; Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa ; Filip, Irina ; Fischer, Florian ; Foigt, Nataliya ; Foreman, Kyle J ; Frank, Tahvi ; Franklin, Richard C ; Fraser, Maya ; Friedman, Joseph ; Frostad, Joseph J ; Fullman, Nancy ; Furst, Thomas ; Furtado, Joao M ; Futran, Neal D ; Gakidou, Emmanuela ; Gambashidze, Ketevan ; Gamkrelidze, Amiran ; Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho ; Garcia - Basteiro, Alberto L ; Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe ; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde ; Gebrekidan, Kahsu Gebrekirstos ; Gebremichael, Mengistu Welday ; Gelaye, Amha Admasie ; Geleijnse, Johanna M ; Gemechu, Bikila Lencha ; Gemechu, Kasiye Shiferaw ; Genova - Maleras, Ricard ; Gesesew, Hailay Abrha ; Gething, Peter W ; Gibney, Katherine B ; Gill, Paramjit Singh ; Gillum, Richard F ; Giref, Ababi Zergaw ; Girma, Bedilu Weji ; Giussani, Giorgia ; Goenka, Shifalika
creationdate2017
ispartofLANCET, 2017
identifier
subjectMedicine And Health Sciences ; Developing-Countries ; Russian Mortality ; Child-Mortality ; Health ; Hiv ; Metaanalysis ; Survival ; Alcohol ; Income ; Death
descriptionBackground: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation: Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.
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0Wang, Haidong
1Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
2Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
3Abbafati, Cristiana
4Abbas, Kaja M
5Abd - Allah, Foad
6Abera, Semaw Ferede
7Abraha, Haftom Niguse
8Abu - Raddad, Laith J
9Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me
10Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
11Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji
12Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O
13Adetokunboh, Olatunji
14Afshin, Ashkan
15Aggarwal, Rakesh
16Agrawal, Anurag
17Agrawal, Sutapa
18Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad
19Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
20Aichour, Amani Nidhal
21Aichour, Ibthiel
22Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
23Aiyar, Sneha
24Akanda, Shafqat
25Akinyemiju, Tomi F
26Akseer, Nadia
27Al - Eyadhy, Ayman
28Al Lami, Faris Hasan
29Alabed, Samer
30Alahdab, Fares
31Al - Aly, Ziyad
32Alam, Khurshid
33Alam, Noore
34Alasfoor, Deena
35Aldridge, Robert William
36Alene, Kefyalew Addis
37Alhabib, Samia
38Ali, Raghib
39Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza
40Aljunid, Syed M
41Alkaabi, Juma M
42Alkerwi, Ala'A
43Alla, Francois
44Allam, Shalini D
45Allebeck, Peter
46Al - Raddadi, Rajaa
47Alsharif, Ubai
48Altirkawi, Khalid A
49Martin, Elena Alvarez
50Alvis - Guzman, Nelson
51Amare, Azmeraw T
52Ameh, Emmanuel A
53Amini, Erfan
54Ammar, Walid
55Amoako, Yaw Ampem
56Anber, Nahla
57Andrei, Catalina Liliana
58Androudi, Sofia
59Ansari, Hossein
60Ansha, Mustafa Geleto
61Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
62Anwari, Palwasha
63Arnlov, Johan
64Arora, Megha
65Al Artaman, Al Artaman
66Aryal, Krishna Kumar
67Asayesh, Hamid
68Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal
69Asghar, Rana Jawad
70Assadi, Reza
71Atey, Tesfay Mehari
72Atre, Sachin R
73Avila - Burgos, Leticia
74Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur
75Awasthi, Ashish
76Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala
77Babalola, Tesleem Kayode
78Bacha, Umar
79Badawi, Alaa
80Balakrishnan, Kalpana
81Balalla, Shivanthi
82Barac, Aleksandra
83Barber, Ryan M
84Barboza, Miguel A
85Barker - Collo, Suzanne L
86Barnighausen, Till
87Barquera, Simon
88Barregard, Lars
89Barrero, Lope H
90Baune, Bernhard T
91Bazargan - Hejazi, Shahrzad
92Bedi, Neeraj
93Beghi, Ettore
94Bejot, Yannick
95Bekele, Bayu Begashaw
96Bell, Michelle L
97Bello, Aminu K
98Bennett, Derrick A
99Bennett, James R
100...
titleGlobal, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
descriptionBackground: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation: Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.
subject
0Medicine And Health Sciences
1Developing-Countries
2Russian Mortality
3Child-Mortality
4Health
5Hiv
6Metaanalysis
7Survival
8Alcohol
9Income
10Death
general
0English
110.1016/S0140-6736(17)31833-0
2Ghent University Academic Bibliography
sourceidghent
recordidghent8533286
issn
00140 6736
10140-6736
21474 547X
31474-547X
rsrctypearticle
creationdate2017
addtitleLANCET
searchscopeghent
scopeghent
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titleGlobal, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
authorWang, Haidong ; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu ; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen ; Abbafati, Cristiana ; Abbas, Kaja M ; Abd - Allah, Foad ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Abraha, Haftom Niguse ; Abu - Raddad, Laith J ; Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me ; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi ; Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji ; Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O ; Adetokunboh, Olatunji ; Afshin, Ashkan ; Aggarwal, Rakesh ; Agrawal, Anurag ; Agrawal, Sutapa ; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad ; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir ; Aichour, Amani Nidhal ; Aichour, Ibthiel ; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine ; Aiyar, Sneha ; Akanda, Shafqat ; Akinyemiju, Tomi F ; Akseer, Nadia ; Al - Eyadhy, Ayman ; Al Lami, Faris Hasan ; Alabed, Samer ; Alahdab, Fares ; Al - Aly, Ziyad ; Alam, Khurshid ; Alam, Noore ; Alasfoor, Deena ; Aldridge, Robert William ; Alene, Kefyalew Addis ; Alhabib, Samia ; Ali, Raghib ; Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza ; Aljunid, Syed M ; Alkaabi, Juma M ; Alkerwi, Ala'A ; Alla, Francois ; Allam, Shalini D ; Allebeck, Peter ; Al - Raddadi, Rajaa ; Alsharif, Ubai ; Altirkawi, Khalid A ; Martin, Elena Alvarez ; Alvis - Guzman, Nelson ; Amare, Azmeraw T ; Ameh, Emmanuel A ; Amini, Erfan ; Ammar, Walid ; Amoako, Yaw Ampem ; Anber, Nahla ; Andrei, Catalina Liliana ; Androudi, Sofia ; Ansari, Hossein ; Ansha, Mustafa Geleto ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Arnlov, Johan ; Arora, Megha ; Al Artaman, Al Artaman ; Aryal, Krishna Kumar ; Asayesh, Hamid ; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal ; Asghar, Rana Jawad ; Assadi, Reza ; Atey, Tesfay Mehari ; Atre, Sachin R ; Avila - Burgos, Leticia ; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur ; Awasthi, Ashish ; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala ; Babalola, Tesleem Kayode ; Bacha, Umar ; Badawi, Alaa ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Balalla, Shivanthi ; Barac, Aleksandra ; Barber, Ryan M ; Barboza, Miguel A ; Barker - Collo, Suzanne L ; Barnighausen, Till ; Barquera, Simon ; Barregard, Lars ; Barrero, Lope H ; Baune, Bernhard T ; Bazargan - Hejazi, Shahrzad ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Beghi, Ettore ; Bejot, Yannick ; Bekele, Bayu Begashaw ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bello, Aminu K ; Bennett, Derrick A ; Bennett, James R ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Benson, Jennifer ; Berhane, Adugnaw ; Berhe, Derbew Fikadu ; Bernabe, Eduardo ; Beuran, Mircea ; Beyene, Addisu Shunu ; Bhala, Neeraj ; Bhansali, Anil ; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A ; Bikbov, Boris ; Birungi, Charles ; Biryukov, Stan ; Bisanzio, Donal ; Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie ; Bjerregaard, Peter ; Blosser, Christopher D ; Boneya, Dube Jara ; Boufous, Soufiane ; Bourne, Rupert Ra ; Brazinova, Alexandra ; Breitborde, Nicholas Jk ; Brenner, Hermann ; Brugha, Traolach S ; Bukhman, Gene ; Negesa, Lemma ; Bulto, Bulto ; Bumgarner, Blair Randal ; Burch, Michael ; Butt, Zahid A ; Cahill, Leah E ; Cahuana - Hurtado, Lucero ; Campos - Nonato, Ismael Ricardo ; Car, Josip ; Car, Mate ; Crdenas, Rosario ; Carpenter, David O ; Carrero, Juan Jesus ; Carter, Austin ; Castaneda - Orjuela, Carlos A ; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo ; Castro, Franz F ; Castro, Ruben Estanislao ; Catala - Lopez, Ferran ; Chen, Honglei ; Chiang, Peggy Pei - Chia ; Chibalabala, Mirriam ; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe ; Chitheer, Abdulaal A ; Choi, Jee - Young Jasmine ; Christensen, Hanne ; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas ; Ciobanu, Liliana G ; Cirillo, Massimo ; Cohen, Aaron J ; Colquhoun, Samantha M ; Coresh, Josef ; Criqui, Michael H ; Cromwell, Elizabeth A ; Crump, John A ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Dargan, Paul I ; Das Neves, Jose ; Davey, Gail ; Davitoiu, Dragos V ; Davletov, Kairat ; De Courten, Barbora ; De Leo, Diego ; Degenhardt, Louisa ; Deiparine, Selina ; Dellavalle, Robert P ; Deribe, Kebede ; Deribew, Amare ; Des Jarlais, Don C ; Dey, Subhojit ; Dharmaratne, Samath D ; Dherani, Mukesh K ; Diaz - Torne, Cesar ; Ding, Eric L ; Dixit, Priyanka ; Djalalinia, Shirin ; Huyen Phuc Do, Huyen Phuc Do ; Doku, David Teye ; Donnelly, Christl Ann ; Priscila, Kadine ; Dos Santos, Bender ; Douwes - Schultz, Dirk ; Driscoll, Tim R ; Duan, Leilei ; Dubey, Manisha ; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow ; Dwivedi, Laxmi Kant ; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh ; El Bcheraoui, Charbel ; Ellingsen, Christian Lycke ; Enayati, Ahmadali ; Endries, Aman Yesuf ; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich ; Eshetie, Setegn ; Eshrati, Babak ; Eskandarieh, Sharareh ; Esteghamati, Alireza ; Estep, Kara ; Fanuel, Belaneh Bekele Fanuel ; Faro, Andre ; Farvid, Maryam S ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Feigin, Valery L ; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed - Mhammad ; Fernandes, Jefferson G ; Fernandes, Joao C ; Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa ; Filip, Irina ; Fischer, Florian ; Foigt, Nataliya ; Foreman, Kyle J ; Frank, Tahvi ; Franklin, Richard C ; Fraser, Maya ; Friedman, Joseph ; Frostad, Joseph J ; Fullman, Nancy ; Furst, Thomas ; Furtado, Joao M ; Futran, Neal D ; Gakidou, Emmanuela ; Gambashidze, Ketevan ; Gamkrelidze, Amiran ; Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho ; Garcia - Basteiro, Alberto L ; Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe ; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde ; Gebrekidan, Kahsu Gebrekirstos ; Gebremichael, Mengistu Welday ; Gelaye, Amha Admasie ; Geleijnse, Johanna M ; Gemechu, Bikila Lencha ; Gemechu, Kasiye Shiferaw ; Genova - Maleras, Ricard ; Gesesew, Hailay Abrha ; Gething, Peter W ; Gibney, Katherine B ; Gill, Paramjit Singh ; Gillum, Richard F ; Giref, Ababi Zergaw ; Girma, Bedilu Weji ; Giussani, Giorgia ; Goenka, Shifalika
creationdate20170000
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0Medicine And Health Sciences
1Developing-Countries
2Russian Mortality
3Child-Mortality
4Health
5Hiv
6Metaanalysis
7Survival
8Alcohol
9Income
10Death
collectionGhent University Academic Bibliography
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creatorcontrib
0Wang, Haidong
1Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
2Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
3Abbafati, Cristiana
4Abbas, Kaja M
5Abd - Allah, Foad
6Abera, Semaw Ferede
7Abraha, Haftom Niguse
8Abu - Raddad, Laith J
9Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me
10Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
11Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji
12Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O
13Adetokunboh, Olatunji
14Afshin, Ashkan
15Aggarwal, Rakesh
16Agrawal, Anurag
17Agrawal, Sutapa
18Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad
19Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
20Aichour, Amani Nidhal
21Aichour, Ibthiel
22Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
23Aiyar, Sneha
24Akanda, Shafqat
25Akinyemiju, Tomi F
26Akseer, Nadia
27Al - Eyadhy, Ayman
28Al Lami, Faris Hasan
29Alabed, Samer
30Alahdab, Fares
31Al - Aly, Ziyad
32Alam, Khurshid
33Alam, Noore
34Alasfoor, Deena
35Aldridge, Robert William
36Alene, Kefyalew Addis
37Alhabib, Samia
38Ali, Raghib
39Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza
40Aljunid, Syed M
41Alkaabi, Juma M
42Alkerwi, Ala'A
43Alla, Francois
44Allam, Shalini D
45Allebeck, Peter
46Al - Raddadi, Rajaa
47Alsharif, Ubai
48Altirkawi, Khalid A
49Martin, Elena Alvarez
50Alvis - Guzman, Nelson
51Amare, Azmeraw T
52Ameh, Emmanuel A
53Amini, Erfan
54Ammar, Walid
55Amoako, Yaw Ampem
56Anber, Nahla
57Andrei, Catalina Liliana
58Androudi, Sofia
59Ansari, Hossein
60Ansha, Mustafa Geleto
61Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
62Anwari, Palwasha
63Arnlov, Johan
64Arora, Megha
65Al Artaman, Al Artaman
66Aryal, Krishna Kumar
67Asayesh, Hamid
68Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal
69Asghar, Rana Jawad
70Assadi, Reza
71Atey, Tesfay Mehari
72Atre, Sachin R
73Avila - Burgos, Leticia
74Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur
75Awasthi, Ashish
76Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala
77Babalola, Tesleem Kayode
78Bacha, Umar
79Badawi, Alaa
80Balakrishnan, Kalpana
81Balalla, Shivanthi
82Barac, Aleksandra
83Barber, Ryan M
84Barboza, Miguel A
85Barker - Collo, Suzanne L
86Barnighausen, Till
87Barquera, Simon
88Barregard, Lars
89Barrero, Lope H
90Baune, Bernhard T
91Bazargan - Hejazi, Shahrzad
92Bedi, Neeraj
93Beghi, Ettore
94Bejot, Yannick
95Bekele, Bayu Begashaw
96Bell, Michelle L
97Bello, Aminu K
98Bennett, Derrick A
99Bennett, James R
100...
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0Wang
1Abajobir
2Abate
3Abbafati
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5Abd-Allah
6Abera
7Abraha
8Abu-Raddad
9Abu-Rmeileh
10Adedeji
11Adedoyin
12Adetifa
13Adetokunboh
14Afshin
15Aggarwal
16Agrawal
17Kiadaliri
18Ahmed
19Aichour
20Aiyar
21Akanda
22Akinyemiju
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33Alhabib
34Ali
35Alizadeh-Navaei
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37Alkaabi
38Alkerwi
39Alla
40Allam
41Allebeck
42Al-Raddadi
43Alsharif
44Altirkawi
45Martin
46Alvis-Guzman
47Amare
48Ameh
49Amini
50Ammar
51Amoako
52Anber
53Andrei
54Androudi
55Ansari
56Ansha
57Antonio
58Anwari
59Arnlov
60Arora
61Al Artaman
62Aryal
63Asayesh
64Asgedom
65Asghar
66Assadi
67Atey
68Atre
69Avila-Burgos
70Avokpaho
71Awasthi
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73Babalola
74Bacha
75Badawi
76Balakrishnan
77Balalla
78Barac
79Barber
80Barboza
81Barker-Collo
82Barnighausen
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84Barregard
85Barrero
86Baune
87Bazargan-Hejazi
88Bedi
89Beghi
90Bejot
91Bekele
92Bell
93Bello
94Bennett
95Bensenor
96Benson
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98Berhe
99Bernabe
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aufirst
0Haidong
1Amanuel Alemu
2Kalkidan Hassen
3Cristiana
4Kaja M
5Foad
6Semaw Ferede
7Haftom Niguse
8Laith J
9Niveen ME
10Isaac Akinkunmi
11Rufus Adesoji
12Ifedayo Morayo O
13Olatunji
14Ashkan
15Rakesh
16Anurag
17Sutapa
18Aliasghar Ahmad
19Muktar Beshir
20Amani Nidhal
21Ibthiel
22Miloud Taki Eddine
23Sneha
24Shafqat
25Tomi F
26Nadia
27Ayman
28Faris Hasan
29Samer
30Fares
31Ziyad
32Khurshid
33Noore
34Deena
35Robert William
36Kefyalew Addis
37Samia
38Raghib
39Reza
40Syed M
41Juma M
42Ala'a
43Francois
44Shalini D
45Peter
46Rajaa
47Ubai
48Khalid A
49Elena Alvarez
50Nelson
51Azmeraw T
52Emmanuel A
53Erfan
54Walid
55Yaw Ampem
56Nahla
57Catalina Liliana
58Sofia
59Hossein
60Mustafa Geleto
61Carl Abelardo T
62Palwasha
63Johan
64Megha
65Al Artaman
66Krishna Kumar
67Hamid
68Solomon Weldegebreal
69Rana Jawad
70Tesfay Mehari
71Sachin R
72Leticia
73Euripide Frinel G Arthur
74Ashish
75Beatriz Paulina Ayala
76Tesleem Kayode
77Umar
78Alaa
79Kalpana
80Shivanthi
81Aleksandra
82Ryan M
83Miguel A
84Suzanne L
85Till
86Simon
87Lars
88Lope H
89Bernhard T
90Shahrzad
91Neeraj
92Ettore
93Yannick
94Bayu Begashaw
95Michelle L
96Aminu K
97Derrick A
98James R
99Isabela M
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0Wang, Haidong
1Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
2Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
3Abbafati, Cristiana
4Abbas, Kaja M
5Abd - Allah, Foad
6Abera, Semaw Ferede
7Abraha, Haftom Niguse
8Abu - Raddad, Laith J
9Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me
10Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
11Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji
12Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O
13Adetokunboh, Olatunji
14Afshin, Ashkan
15Aggarwal, Rakesh
16Agrawal, Anurag
17Agrawal, Sutapa
18Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad
19Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
20Aichour, Amani Nidhal
21Aichour, Ibthiel
22Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
23Aiyar, Sneha
24Akanda, Shafqat
25Akinyemiju, Tomi F
26Akseer, Nadia
27Al - Eyadhy, Ayman
28Al Lami, Faris Hasan
29Alabed, Samer
30Alahdab, Fares
31Al - Aly, Ziyad
32Alam, Khurshid
33Alam, Noore
34Alasfoor, Deena
35Aldridge, Robert William
36Alene, Kefyalew Addis
37Alhabib, Samia
38Ali, Raghib
39Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza
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41Alkaabi, Juma M
42Alkerwi, Ala'A
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45Allebeck, Peter
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48Altirkawi, Khalid A
49Martin, Elena Alvarez
50Alvis - Guzman, Nelson
51Amare, Azmeraw T
52Ameh, Emmanuel A
53Amini, Erfan
54Ammar, Walid
55Amoako, Yaw Ampem
56Anber, Nahla
57Andrei, Catalina Liliana
58Androudi, Sofia
59Ansari, Hossein
60Ansha, Mustafa Geleto
61Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
62Anwari, Palwasha
63Arnlov, Johan
64Arora, Megha
65Al Artaman, Al Artaman
66Aryal, Krishna Kumar
67Asayesh, Hamid
68Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal
69Asghar, Rana Jawad
70Assadi, Reza
71Atey, Tesfay Mehari
72Atre, Sachin R
73Avila - Burgos, Leticia
74Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur
75Awasthi, Ashish
76Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala
77Babalola, Tesleem Kayode
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81Balalla, Shivanthi
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86Barnighausen, Till
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90Baune, Bernhard T
91Bazargan - Hejazi, Shahrzad
92Bedi, Neeraj
93Beghi, Ettore
94Bejot, Yannick
95Bekele, Bayu Begashaw
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atitleGlobal, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
jtitleLANCET
date2017
risdate2017
issn
00140-6736
11474-547X
genrearticle
ristypeJOUR
abstractBackground: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation: Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.
doi10.1016/S0140-6736(17)31833-0
url
0https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8533286
1https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8533286/file/8533296
formatarticle
orcididdiva-portal.org=authority-person:10837
issue10100
volume390
pages1084-1150
isbn0004106300000
oafree_for_read