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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to e... Full description

Journal Title: LANCET 2018
Main Author: Lozano, Rafael
Other Authors: Fullman, Nancy , Abate, Degu , Abay, Solomon M , Abbafati, Cristiana , Abbasi, Nooshin , Abbastabar, Hedayat , Abd - Allah, Foad , Abdela, Jemal , Abdelalim, Ahmed , Abdel - Rahman, Omar , Abdi, Alireza , Abdollahpour, Ibrahim , Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi , Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje , Abebe, Zegeye , Abejie, Ayenew Negesse , Abera, Semaw F , Abil, Olifan Zewdie , Aboyans, Victor , Abraha, Haftom Niguse , Abrham, Aklilu Roba , Abu - Raddad, Laith Jamal , Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me , Abyu, Gebre Y , Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou , Acharya, Dilaram , Acharya, Pawan , Adamu, Abdu A , Adebayo, Oladimeji M , Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi , Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji , Adekanmbi, Victor , Adetokunboh, Olatunji O , Adhena, Beyene Meressa , Adhikari, Tara Ballav , Adib, Mina G , Adou, Arsène Kouablan , Adsuar, Jose C , Afarideh, Mohsen , Afshari, Mahdi , Afshin, Ashkan , Agarwal, Gina , Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi , Agius, Dominic , Agrawal, Anurag , Agrawal, Sutapa , Ahmadi, Alireza , Ahmadi, Mehdi , Ahmadieh, Hamid , Ahmed, Muktar Beshir , Ahmed, Sayem , Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie , Akanda, Ali S , Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil , Akibu, Mohammed , Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola , Akinyemiju, Tomi , Akseer, Nadia , Alahdab, Fares , Al - Aly, Ziyad , Alam, Khurshid , Alam, Tahiya , Albujeer, Ammar , Alebel, Animut , Alene, Kefyalew Addis , Al - Eyadhy, Ayman , Alhabib, Samia , Ali, Raghib , Alijanzadeh, Mehran , Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza , Aljunid, Syed Mohamed , Alkerwi, Ala'A , Alla, François , Allebeck, Peter , Allen, Christine A , Almasi, Ali , Al - Maskari, Fatma , Al - Mekhlafi, Hesham M , Alonso, Jordi , Al - Raddadi, Rajaa M , Alsharif, Ubai , Altirkawi, Khalid , Alvis - Guzman, Nelson , Amare, Azmeraw T , Amenu, Kebede , Amini, Erfan , Ammar, Walid , Anber, Nahla Hamed , Anderson, Jason A , Andrei, Catalina Liliana , Androudi, Sofia , Animut, Megbaru Debalkie , Anjomshoa, Mina , Ansari, Hossein , Ansariadi, Ansariadi , Ansha, Mustafa Geleto , Antonio, Carl Abelardo T , Anwari, Palwasha , Appiah, Lambert Tetteh , Aremu, Olatunde , Areri, Habtamu Abera , Ärnlöv, Johan , Arora, Monika , Aryal, Krishna K , Asayesh, Hamid , Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay , Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal , Asghar, Rana Jawad , Assadi, Reza , Ataro, Zerihun , Atique, Suleman , Atre, Sachin R , Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan , Ausloos, Marcel , Avila - Burgos, Leticia , Avokpaho, Euripide F G A , Awasthi, Ashish , Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina , Ayele, Henok Tadesse , Ayele, Yohanes , Ayer, Rakesh , Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza , Azzopardi, Peter S , Azzopardi - Muscat, Natasha , Babalola, Tesleem Kayode , Babazadeh, Arefeh , Badali, Hamid , Badawi, Alaa , Balakrishnan, Kalpana , Bali, Ayele Geleto , Banach, Maciej , Banerjee, Amitava , Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar , Banstola, Amrit , Barac, Aleksandra , Barboza, Miguel A , Barker - Collo, Suzanne Lyn , Bärnighausen, Till Winfried , Barrero, Lope H , Barthelemy, Celine M , Bassat, Quique , Basu, Arindam , Basu, Sanjay , Battista, Robert J , Baune, Bernhard T , Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw , Bazargan - Hejazi, Shahrzad , Bedi, Neeraj , Beghi, Ettore , Behzadifar, Masoud , Behzadifar, Meysam , Béjot, Yannick , Bekele, Bayu Begashaw , Belachew, Abate Bekele , Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus , Belay, Saba Abraham , Belay, Yihalem Abebe , Bell, Michelle L , Bello, Aminu K , Bennett, Derrick A , Bensenor, Isabela M , Benzian, Habib , Berhane, Adugnaw , Berhe, Abadi Kidanemariam , Berman, Adam E , Bernabe, Eduardo , Bernstein, Robert S , Bertolacci, Gregory J , Beuran, Mircea , Beyranvand, Tina , Bhala, Neeraj , Bhalla, Ashish , Bhansali, Anil , Bhattarai, Suraj , Bhaumik, Soumyadeep , Bhutta, Zulfiqar A , Biadgo, Belete , Biehl, Molly H , Bijani, Ali , Bikbov, Boris , Bililign, Nigus , Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat , Birlik, Sait Mentes , Birungi, Charles , Bisanzio, Donal , Biswas, Tuhin , Bitew, Helen , Bizuneh, Hailemichael , Bjertness, Espen , Bobasa, Eshetu Mulisa , Boufous, Soufiane , Bourne, Rupert , Bozorgmehr, Kayvan , Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi , Brainin, Michael , Brant, Luisa C , Brauer, Michael , Brazinova, Alexandra , Breitborde, Nicholas J K , Briant, Paul Svitil , Britton, Gabrielle , Brugha, Traolach , Bukhman, Gene , Busse, Reinhard , Butt, Zahid A , Cahuana - Hurtado, Lucero , Callender, Charlton Skh , Campos - Nonato, Ismael R , Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar , Cano, Jorge , Car, Josip , Car, Mate , Cárdenas, Rosario , Carrero, Juan J , Carter, Austin , Carvalho, Félix , Castañeda - Orjuela, Carlos A , Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline , Castro, Franz , Causey, Kate , Çavlin, Alanur , Cercy, Kelly M , Cerin, Ester , Chaiah, Yazan , Chalek, Julian , Chang, Hsing - Yi , Chang, Jung - Chen , Chattopadhyay, Aparajita , Chattu, Vijay Kumar , Chaturvedi, Pankaj , Chiang, Peggy Pei - Chia , Chin, Ken Lee , Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe , Chitheer, Abdulaal , Choi, Jee - Young J , Chowdhury, Rajiv , Christensen, Hanne , Christopher, Devasahayam J , Chung, Sheng - Chia , Cicuttini, Flavia M , Ciobanu, Liliana G , Cirillo, Massimo , Claro, Rafael M , Claßen, Thomas Khaled Dwayne , Cohen, Aaron J , Collado - Mateo, Daniel , Cooper, Cyrus , Cooper, Leslie Trumbull , Cornaby, Leslie
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
Quelle: Ghent University
Created: 2018
ID: ISSN: 0140-6736 ; DOI: 10.10.6/s0140-6736(18)32281-5
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title: Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
format: Article
creator:
  • Lozano, Rafael
  • Fullman, Nancy
  • Abate, Degu
  • Abay, Solomon M
  • Abbafati, Cristiana
  • Abbasi, Nooshin
  • Abbastabar, Hedayat
  • Abd - Allah, Foad
  • Abdela, Jemal
  • Abdelalim, Ahmed
  • Abdel - Rahman, Omar
  • Abdi, Alireza
  • Abdollahpour, Ibrahim
  • Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
  • Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje
  • Abebe, Zegeye
  • Abejie, Ayenew Negesse
  • Abera, Semaw F
  • Abil, Olifan Zewdie
  • Aboyans, Victor
  • Abraha, Haftom Niguse
  • Abrham, Aklilu Roba
  • Abu - Raddad, Laith Jamal
  • Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me
  • Abyu, Gebre Y
  • Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou
  • Acharya, Dilaram
  • Acharya, Pawan
  • Adamu, Abdu A
  • Adebayo, Oladimeji M
  • Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
  • Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji
  • Adekanmbi, Victor
  • Adetokunboh, Olatunji O
  • Adhena, Beyene Meressa
  • Adhikari, Tara Ballav
  • Adib, Mina G
  • Adou, Arsène Kouablan
  • Adsuar, Jose C
  • Afarideh, Mohsen
  • Afshari, Mahdi
  • Afshin, Ashkan
  • Agarwal, Gina
  • Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi
  • Agius, Dominic
  • Agrawal, Anurag
  • Agrawal, Sutapa
  • Ahmadi, Alireza
  • Ahmadi, Mehdi
  • Ahmadieh, Hamid
  • Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
  • Ahmed, Sayem
  • Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie
  • Akanda, Ali S
  • Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil
  • Akibu, Mohammed
  • Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola
  • Akinyemiju, Tomi
  • Akseer, Nadia
  • Alahdab, Fares
  • Al - Aly, Ziyad
  • Alam, Khurshid
  • Alam, Tahiya
  • Albujeer, Ammar
  • Alebel, Animut
  • Alene, Kefyalew Addis
  • Al - Eyadhy, Ayman
  • Alhabib, Samia
  • Ali, Raghib
  • Alijanzadeh, Mehran
  • Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza
  • Aljunid, Syed Mohamed
  • Alkerwi, Ala'A
  • Alla, François
  • Allebeck, Peter
  • Allen, Christine A
  • Almasi, Ali
  • Al - Maskari, Fatma
  • Al - Mekhlafi, Hesham M
  • Alonso, Jordi
  • Al - Raddadi, Rajaa M
  • Alsharif, Ubai
  • Altirkawi, Khalid
  • Alvis - Guzman, Nelson
  • Amare, Azmeraw T
  • Amenu, Kebede
  • Amini, Erfan
  • Ammar, Walid
  • Anber, Nahla Hamed
  • Anderson, Jason A
  • Andrei, Catalina Liliana
  • Androudi, Sofia
  • Animut, Megbaru Debalkie
  • Anjomshoa, Mina
  • Ansari, Hossein
  • Ansariadi, Ansariadi
  • Ansha, Mustafa Geleto
  • Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
  • Anwari, Palwasha
  • Appiah, Lambert Tetteh
  • Aremu, Olatunde
  • Areri, Habtamu Abera
  • Ärnlöv, Johan
  • Arora, Monika
  • Aryal, Krishna K
  • Asayesh, Hamid
  • Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay
  • Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal
  • Asghar, Rana Jawad
  • Assadi, Reza
  • Ataro, Zerihun
  • Atique, Suleman
  • Atre, Sachin R
  • Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan
  • Ausloos, Marcel
  • Avila - Burgos, Leticia
  • Avokpaho, Euripide F G A
  • Awasthi, Ashish
  • Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina
  • Ayele, Henok Tadesse
  • Ayele, Yohanes
  • Ayer, Rakesh
  • Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza
  • Azzopardi, Peter S
  • Azzopardi - Muscat, Natasha
  • Babalola, Tesleem Kayode
  • Babazadeh, Arefeh
  • Badali, Hamid
  • Badawi, Alaa
  • Balakrishnan, Kalpana
  • Bali, Ayele Geleto
  • Banach, Maciej
  • Banerjee, Amitava
  • Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar
  • Banstola, Amrit
  • Barac, Aleksandra
  • Barboza, Miguel A
  • Barker - Collo, Suzanne Lyn
  • Bärnighausen, Till Winfried
  • Barrero, Lope H
  • Barthelemy, Celine M
  • Bassat, Quique
  • Basu, Arindam
  • Basu, Sanjay
  • Battista, Robert J
  • Baune, Bernhard T
  • Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw
  • Bazargan - Hejazi, Shahrzad
  • Bedi, Neeraj
  • Beghi, Ettore
  • Behzadifar, Masoud
  • Behzadifar, Meysam
  • Béjot, Yannick
  • Bekele, Bayu Begashaw
  • Belachew, Abate Bekele
  • Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus
  • Belay, Saba Abraham
  • Belay, Yihalem Abebe
  • Bell, Michelle L
  • Bello, Aminu K
  • Bennett, Derrick A
  • Bensenor, Isabela M
  • Benzian, Habib
  • Berhane, Adugnaw
  • Berhe, Abadi Kidanemariam
  • Berman, Adam E
  • Bernabe, Eduardo
  • Bernstein, Robert S
  • Bertolacci, Gregory J
  • Beuran, Mircea
  • Beyranvand, Tina
  • Bhala, Neeraj
  • Bhalla, Ashish
  • Bhansali, Anil
  • Bhattarai, Suraj
  • Bhaumik, Soumyadeep
  • Bhutta, Zulfiqar A
  • Biadgo, Belete
  • Biehl, Molly H
  • Bijani, Ali
  • Bikbov, Boris
  • Bililign, Nigus
  • Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat
  • Birlik, Sait Mentes
  • Birungi, Charles
  • Bisanzio, Donal
  • Biswas, Tuhin
  • Bitew, Helen
  • Bizuneh, Hailemichael
  • Bjertness, Espen
  • Bobasa, Eshetu Mulisa
  • Boufous, Soufiane
  • Bourne, Rupert
  • Bozorgmehr, Kayvan
  • Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi
  • Brainin, Michael
  • Brant, Luisa C
  • Brauer, Michael
  • Brazinova, Alexandra
  • Breitborde, Nicholas J K
  • Briant, Paul Svitil
  • Britton, Gabrielle
  • Brugha, Traolach
  • Bukhman, Gene
  • Busse, Reinhard
  • Butt, Zahid A
  • Cahuana - Hurtado, Lucero
  • Callender, Charlton Skh
  • Campos - Nonato, Ismael R
  • Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar
  • Cano, Jorge
  • Car, Josip
  • Car, Mate
  • Cárdenas, Rosario
  • Carrero, Juan J
  • Carter, Austin
  • Carvalho, Félix
  • Castañeda - Orjuela, Carlos A
  • Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline
  • Castro, Franz
  • Causey, Kate
  • Çavlin, Alanur
  • Cercy, Kelly M
  • Cerin, Ester
  • Chaiah, Yazan
  • Chalek, Julian
  • Chang, Hsing - Yi
  • Chang, Jung - Chen
  • Chattopadhyay, Aparajita
  • Chattu, Vijay Kumar
  • Chaturvedi, Pankaj
  • Chiang, Peggy Pei - Chia
  • Chin, Ken Lee
  • Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe
  • Chitheer, Abdulaal
  • Choi, Jee - Young J
  • Chowdhury, Rajiv
  • Christensen, Hanne
  • Christopher, Devasahayam J
  • Chung, Sheng - Chia
  • Cicuttini, Flavia M
  • Ciobanu, Liliana G
  • Cirillo, Massimo
  • Claro, Rafael M
  • Claßen, Thomas Khaled Dwayne
  • Cohen, Aaron J
  • Collado - Mateo, Daniel
  • Cooper, Cyrus
  • Cooper, Leslie Trumbull
  • Cornaby, Leslie
subjects:
  • Medicine And Health Sciences
  • Cardiovascular-Disease
  • Smoking Prevalence
  • Gender-Differences
  • Alcohol-Use
  • Suicide
  • Perspective
  • Consumption
  • Prevention
  • Transition
  • Cessation
ispartof: LANCET, 2018
description: Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health -related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related S DG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2
language: eng
source: Ghent University
identifier: ISSN: 0140-6736 ; DOI: 10.10.6/s0140-6736(18)32281-5
fulltext: fulltext_linktorsrc
issn:
  • 0140 6736
  • 0140-6736
url: Link


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titleMeasuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
creatorLozano, Rafael ; Fullman, Nancy ; Abate, Degu ; Abay, Solomon M ; Abbafati, Cristiana ; Abbasi, Nooshin ; Abbastabar, Hedayat ; Abd - Allah, Foad ; Abdela, Jemal ; Abdelalim, Ahmed ; Abdel - Rahman, Omar ; Abdi, Alireza ; Abdollahpour, Ibrahim ; Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi ; Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje ; Abebe, Zegeye ; Abejie, Ayenew Negesse ; Abera, Semaw F ; Abil, Olifan Zewdie ; Aboyans, Victor ; Abraha, Haftom Niguse ; Abrham, Aklilu Roba ; Abu - Raddad, Laith Jamal ; Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me ; Abyu, Gebre Y ; Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou ; Acharya, Dilaram ; Acharya, Pawan ; Adamu, Abdu A ; Adebayo, Oladimeji M ; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi ; Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji ; Adekanmbi, Victor ; Adetokunboh, Olatunji O ; Adhena, Beyene Meressa ; Adhikari, Tara Ballav ; Adib, Mina G ; Adou, Arsène Kouablan ; Adsuar, Jose C ; Afarideh, Mohsen ; Afshari, Mahdi ; Afshin, Ashkan ; Agarwal, Gina ; Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi ; Agius, Dominic ; Agrawal, Anurag ; Agrawal, Sutapa ; Ahmadi, Alireza ; Ahmadi, Mehdi ; Ahmadieh, Hamid ; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir ; Ahmed, Sayem ; Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie ; Akanda, Ali S ; Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil ; Akibu, Mohammed ; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola ; Akinyemiju, Tomi ; Akseer, Nadia ; Alahdab, Fares ; Al - Aly, Ziyad ; Alam, Khurshid ; Alam, Tahiya ; Albujeer, Ammar ; Alebel, Animut ; Alene, Kefyalew Addis ; Al - Eyadhy, Ayman ; Alhabib, Samia ; Ali, Raghib ; Alijanzadeh, Mehran ; Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza ; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed ; Alkerwi, Ala'A ; Alla, François ; Allebeck, Peter ; Allen, Christine A ; Almasi, Ali ; Al - Maskari, Fatma ; Al - Mekhlafi, Hesham M ; Alonso, Jordi ; Al - Raddadi, Rajaa M ; Alsharif, Ubai ; Altirkawi, Khalid ; Alvis - Guzman, Nelson ; Amare, Azmeraw T ; Amenu, Kebede ; Amini, Erfan ; Ammar, Walid ; Anber, Nahla Hamed ; Anderson, Jason A ; Andrei, Catalina Liliana ; Androudi, Sofia ; Animut, Megbaru Debalkie ; Anjomshoa, Mina ; Ansari, Hossein ; Ansariadi, Ansariadi ; Ansha, Mustafa Geleto ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Appiah, Lambert Tetteh ; Aremu, Olatunde ; Areri, Habtamu Abera ; Ärnlöv, Johan ; Arora, Monika ; Aryal, Krishna K ; Asayesh, Hamid ; Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay ; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal ; Asghar, Rana Jawad ; Assadi, Reza ; Ataro, Zerihun ; Atique, Suleman ; Atre, Sachin R ; Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan ; Ausloos, Marcel ; Avila - Burgos, Leticia ; Avokpaho, Euripide F G A ; Awasthi, Ashish ; Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina ; Ayele, Henok Tadesse ; Ayele, Yohanes ; Ayer, Rakesh ; Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza ; Azzopardi, Peter S ; Azzopardi - Muscat, Natasha ; Babalola, Tesleem Kayode ; Babazadeh, Arefeh ; Badali, Hamid ; Badawi, Alaa ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Bali, Ayele Geleto ; Banach, Maciej ; Banerjee, Amitava ; Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar ; Banstola, Amrit ; Barac, Aleksandra ; Barboza, Miguel A ; Barker - Collo, Suzanne Lyn ; Bärnighausen, Till Winfried ; Barrero, Lope H ; Barthelemy, Celine M ; Bassat, Quique ; Basu, Arindam ; Basu, Sanjay ; Battista, Robert J ; Baune, Bernhard T ; Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw ; Bazargan - Hejazi, Shahrzad ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Beghi, Ettore ; Behzadifar, Masoud ; Behzadifar, Meysam ; Béjot, Yannick ; Bekele, Bayu Begashaw ; Belachew, Abate Bekele ; Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus ; Belay, Saba Abraham ; Belay, Yihalem Abebe ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bello, Aminu K ; Bennett, Derrick A ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Benzian, Habib ; Berhane, Adugnaw ; Berhe, Abadi Kidanemariam ; Berman, Adam E ; Bernabe, Eduardo ; Bernstein, Robert S ; Bertolacci, Gregory J ; Beuran, Mircea ; Beyranvand, Tina ; Bhala, Neeraj ; Bhalla, Ashish ; Bhansali, Anil ; Bhattarai, Suraj ; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A ; Biadgo, Belete ; Biehl, Molly H ; Bijani, Ali ; Bikbov, Boris ; Bililign, Nigus ; Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat ; Birlik, Sait Mentes ; Birungi, Charles ; Bisanzio, Donal ; Biswas, Tuhin ; Bitew, Helen ; Bizuneh, Hailemichael ; Bjertness, Espen ; Bobasa, Eshetu Mulisa ; Boufous, Soufiane ; Bourne, Rupert ; Bozorgmehr, Kayvan ; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi ; Brainin, Michael ; Brant, Luisa C ; Brauer, Michael ; Brazinova, Alexandra ; Breitborde, Nicholas J K ; Briant, Paul Svitil ; Britton, Gabrielle ; Brugha, Traolach ; Bukhman, Gene ; Busse, Reinhard ; Butt, Zahid A ; Cahuana - Hurtado, Lucero ; Callender, Charlton Skh ; Campos - Nonato, Ismael R ; Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar ; Cano, Jorge ; Car, Josip ; Car, Mate ; Cárdenas, Rosario ; Carrero, Juan J ; Carter, Austin ; Carvalho, Félix ; Castañeda - Orjuela, Carlos A ; Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline ; Castro, Franz ; Causey, Kate ; Çavlin, Alanur ; Cercy, Kelly M ; Cerin, Ester ; Chaiah, Yazan ; Chalek, Julian ; Chang, Hsing - Yi ; Chang, Jung - Chen ; Chattopadhyay, Aparajita ; Chattu, Vijay Kumar ; Chaturvedi, Pankaj ; Chiang, Peggy Pei - Chia ; Chin, Ken Lee ; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe ; Chitheer, Abdulaal ; Choi, Jee - Young J ; Chowdhury, Rajiv ; Christensen, Hanne ; Christopher, Devasahayam J ; Chung, Sheng - Chia ; Cicuttini, Flavia M ; Ciobanu, Liliana G ; Cirillo, Massimo ; Claro, Rafael M ; Claßen, Thomas Khaled Dwayne ; Cohen, Aaron J ; Collado - Mateo, Daniel ; Cooper, Cyrus ; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull ; Cornaby, Leslie
creationdate2018
ispartofLANCET, 2018
identifier ISSN: 0140-6736 ; DOI: 10.10.6/s0140-6736(18)32281-5
subjectMedicine And Health Sciences ; Cardiovascular-Disease ; Smoking Prevalence ; Gender-Differences ; Alcohol-Use ; Suicide ; Perspective ; Consumption ; Prevention ; Transition ; Cessation
descriptionBackground: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health -related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related S DG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59.4 (IQR 35.4-67.3), ranging from a low of 11.6 (95% uncertainty interval 9.6-14.0) to a high of 84.9 (83.1-86.7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attaimnent by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health -related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health -related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence -related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains curative interventions in the case of NCDs towards multisectoral, prevention -oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the S DGs. What is clear is that our actions or inaction today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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0Lozano, Rafael
1Fullman, Nancy
2Abate, Degu
3Abay, Solomon M
4Abbafati, Cristiana
5Abbasi, Nooshin
6Abbastabar, Hedayat
7Abd - Allah, Foad
8Abdela, Jemal
9Abdelalim, Ahmed
10Abdel - Rahman, Omar
11Abdi, Alireza
12Abdollahpour, Ibrahim
13Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
14Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje
15Abebe, Zegeye
16Abejie, Ayenew Negesse
17Abera, Semaw F
18Abil, Olifan Zewdie
19Aboyans, Victor
20Abraha, Haftom Niguse
21Abrham, Aklilu Roba
22Abu - Raddad, Laith Jamal
23Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me
24Abyu, Gebre Y
25Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou
26Acharya, Dilaram
27Acharya, Pawan
28Adamu, Abdu A
29Adebayo, Oladimeji M
30Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
31Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji
32Adekanmbi, Victor
33Adetokunboh, Olatunji O
34Adhena, Beyene Meressa
35Adhikari, Tara Ballav
36Adib, Mina G
37Adou, Arsène Kouablan
38Adsuar, Jose C
39Afarideh, Mohsen
40Afshari, Mahdi
41Afshin, Ashkan
42Agarwal, Gina
43Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi
44Agius, Dominic
45Agrawal, Anurag
46Agrawal, Sutapa
47Ahmadi, Alireza
48Ahmadi, Mehdi
49Ahmadieh, Hamid
50Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
51Ahmed, Sayem
52Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie
53Akanda, Ali S
54Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil
55Akibu, Mohammed
56Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola
57Akinyemiju, Tomi
58Akseer, Nadia
59Alahdab, Fares
60Al - Aly, Ziyad
61Alam, Khurshid
62Alam, Tahiya
63Albujeer, Ammar
64Alebel, Animut
65Alene, Kefyalew Addis
66Al - Eyadhy, Ayman
67Alhabib, Samia
68Ali, Raghib
69Alijanzadeh, Mehran
70Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza
71Aljunid, Syed Mohamed
72Alkerwi, Ala'A
73Alla, François
74Allebeck, Peter
75Allen, Christine A
76Almasi, Ali
77Al - Maskari, Fatma
78Al - Mekhlafi, Hesham M
79Alonso, Jordi
80Al - Raddadi, Rajaa M
81Alsharif, Ubai
82Altirkawi, Khalid
83Alvis - Guzman, Nelson
84Amare, Azmeraw T
85Amenu, Kebede
86Amini, Erfan
87Ammar, Walid
88Anber, Nahla Hamed
89Anderson, Jason A
90Andrei, Catalina Liliana
91Androudi, Sofia
92Animut, Megbaru Debalkie
93Anjomshoa, Mina
94Ansari, Hossein
95Ansariadi, Ansariadi
96Ansha, Mustafa Geleto
97Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
98Anwari, Palwasha
99Appiah, Lambert Tetteh
100...
titleMeasuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
descriptionBackground: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health -related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related S DG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59.4 (IQR 35.4-67.3), ranging from a low of 11.6 (95% uncertainty interval 9.6-14.0) to a high of 84.9 (83.1-86.7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attaimnent by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health -related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health -related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence -related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains curative interventions in the case of NCDs towards multisectoral, prevention -oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the S DGs. What is clear is that our actions or inaction today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
subject
0Medicine And Health Sciences
1Cardiovascular-Disease
2Smoking Prevalence
3Gender-Differences
4Alcohol-Use
5Suicide
6Perspective
7Consumption
8Prevention
9Transition
10Cessation
general
0English
110.1016/s0140-6736(18)32281-5
2Ghent University Academic Bibliography
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titleMeasuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
authorLozano, Rafael ; Fullman, Nancy ; Abate, Degu ; Abay, Solomon M ; Abbafati, Cristiana ; Abbasi, Nooshin ; Abbastabar, Hedayat ; Abd - Allah, Foad ; Abdela, Jemal ; Abdelalim, Ahmed ; Abdel - Rahman, Omar ; Abdi, Alireza ; Abdollahpour, Ibrahim ; Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi ; Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje ; Abebe, Zegeye ; Abejie, Ayenew Negesse ; Abera, Semaw F ; Abil, Olifan Zewdie ; Aboyans, Victor ; Abraha, Haftom Niguse ; Abrham, Aklilu Roba ; Abu - Raddad, Laith Jamal ; Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me ; Abyu, Gebre Y ; Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou ; Acharya, Dilaram ; Acharya, Pawan ; Adamu, Abdu A ; Adebayo, Oladimeji M ; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi ; Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji ; Adekanmbi, Victor ; Adetokunboh, Olatunji O ; Adhena, Beyene Meressa ; Adhikari, Tara Ballav ; Adib, Mina G ; Adou, Arsène Kouablan ; Adsuar, Jose C ; Afarideh, Mohsen ; Afshari, Mahdi ; Afshin, Ashkan ; Agarwal, Gina ; Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi ; Agius, Dominic ; Agrawal, Anurag ; Agrawal, Sutapa ; Ahmadi, Alireza ; Ahmadi, Mehdi ; Ahmadieh, Hamid ; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir ; Ahmed, Sayem ; Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie ; Akanda, Ali S ; Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil ; Akibu, Mohammed ; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola ; Akinyemiju, Tomi ; Akseer, Nadia ; Alahdab, Fares ; Al - Aly, Ziyad ; Alam, Khurshid ; Alam, Tahiya ; Albujeer, Ammar ; Alebel, Animut ; Alene, Kefyalew Addis ; Al - Eyadhy, Ayman ; Alhabib, Samia ; Ali, Raghib ; Alijanzadeh, Mehran ; Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza ; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed ; Alkerwi, Ala'A ; Alla, François ; Allebeck, Peter ; Allen, Christine A ; Almasi, Ali ; Al - Maskari, Fatma ; Al - Mekhlafi, Hesham M ; Alonso, Jordi ; Al - Raddadi, Rajaa M ; Alsharif, Ubai ; Altirkawi, Khalid ; Alvis - Guzman, Nelson ; Amare, Azmeraw T ; Amenu, Kebede ; Amini, Erfan ; Ammar, Walid ; Anber, Nahla Hamed ; Anderson, Jason A ; Andrei, Catalina Liliana ; Androudi, Sofia ; Animut, Megbaru Debalkie ; Anjomshoa, Mina ; Ansari, Hossein ; Ansariadi, Ansariadi ; Ansha, Mustafa Geleto ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Appiah, Lambert Tetteh ; Aremu, Olatunde ; Areri, Habtamu Abera ; Ärnlöv, Johan ; Arora, Monika ; Aryal, Krishna K ; Asayesh, Hamid ; Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay ; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal ; Asghar, Rana Jawad ; Assadi, Reza ; Ataro, Zerihun ; Atique, Suleman ; Atre, Sachin R ; Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan ; Ausloos, Marcel ; Avila - Burgos, Leticia ; Avokpaho, Euripide F G A ; Awasthi, Ashish ; Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina ; Ayele, Henok Tadesse ; Ayele, Yohanes ; Ayer, Rakesh ; Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza ; Azzopardi, Peter S ; Azzopardi - Muscat, Natasha ; Babalola, Tesleem Kayode ; Babazadeh, Arefeh ; Badali, Hamid ; Badawi, Alaa ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Bali, Ayele Geleto ; Banach, Maciej ; Banerjee, Amitava ; Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar ; Banstola, Amrit ; Barac, Aleksandra ; Barboza, Miguel A ; Barker - Collo, Suzanne Lyn ; Bärnighausen, Till Winfried ; Barrero, Lope H ; Barthelemy, Celine M ; Bassat, Quique ; Basu, Arindam ; Basu, Sanjay ; Battista, Robert J ; Baune, Bernhard T ; Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw ; Bazargan - Hejazi, Shahrzad ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Beghi, Ettore ; Behzadifar, Masoud ; Behzadifar, Meysam ; Béjot, Yannick ; Bekele, Bayu Begashaw ; Belachew, Abate Bekele ; Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus ; Belay, Saba Abraham ; Belay, Yihalem Abebe ; Bell, Michelle L ; Bello, Aminu K ; Bennett, Derrick A ; Bensenor, Isabela M ; Benzian, Habib ; Berhane, Adugnaw ; Berhe, Abadi Kidanemariam ; Berman, Adam E ; Bernabe, Eduardo ; Bernstein, Robert S ; Bertolacci, Gregory J ; Beuran, Mircea ; Beyranvand, Tina ; Bhala, Neeraj ; Bhalla, Ashish ; Bhansali, Anil ; Bhattarai, Suraj ; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A ; Biadgo, Belete ; Biehl, Molly H ; Bijani, Ali ; Bikbov, Boris ; Bililign, Nigus ; Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat ; Birlik, Sait Mentes ; Birungi, Charles ; Bisanzio, Donal ; Biswas, Tuhin ; Bitew, Helen ; Bizuneh, Hailemichael ; Bjertness, Espen ; Bobasa, Eshetu Mulisa ; Boufous, Soufiane ; Bourne, Rupert ; Bozorgmehr, Kayvan ; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi ; Brainin, Michael ; Brant, Luisa C ; Brauer, Michael ; Brazinova, Alexandra ; Breitborde, Nicholas J K ; Briant, Paul Svitil ; Britton, Gabrielle ; Brugha, Traolach ; Bukhman, Gene ; Busse, Reinhard ; Butt, Zahid A ; Cahuana - Hurtado, Lucero ; Callender, Charlton Skh ; Campos - Nonato, Ismael R ; Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar ; Cano, Jorge ; Car, Josip ; Car, Mate ; Cárdenas, Rosario ; Carrero, Juan J ; Carter, Austin ; Carvalho, Félix ; Castañeda - Orjuela, Carlos A ; Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline ; Castro, Franz ; Causey, Kate ; Çavlin, Alanur ; Cercy, Kelly M ; Cerin, Ester ; Chaiah, Yazan ; Chalek, Julian ; Chang, Hsing - Yi ; Chang, Jung - Chen ; Chattopadhyay, Aparajita ; Chattu, Vijay Kumar ; Chaturvedi, Pankaj ; Chiang, Peggy Pei - Chia ; Chin, Ken Lee ; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe ; Chitheer, Abdulaal ; Choi, Jee - Young J ; Chowdhury, Rajiv ; Christensen, Hanne ; Christopher, Devasahayam J ; Chung, Sheng - Chia ; Cicuttini, Flavia M ; Ciobanu, Liliana G ; Cirillo, Massimo ; Claro, Rafael M ; Claßen, Thomas Khaled Dwayne ; Cohen, Aaron J ; Collado - Mateo, Daniel ; Cooper, Cyrus ; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull ; Cornaby, Leslie
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0Medicine And Health Sciences
1Cardiovascular-Disease
2Smoking Prevalence
3Gender-Differences
4Alcohol-Use
5Suicide
6Perspective
7Consumption
8Prevention
9Transition
10Cessation
collectionGhent University Academic Bibliography
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0Lozano, Rafael
1Fullman, Nancy
2Abate, Degu
3Abay, Solomon M
4Abbafati, Cristiana
5Abbasi, Nooshin
6Abbastabar, Hedayat
7Abd - Allah, Foad
8Abdela, Jemal
9Abdelalim, Ahmed
10Abdel - Rahman, Omar
11Abdi, Alireza
12Abdollahpour, Ibrahim
13Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
14Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje
15Abebe, Zegeye
16Abejie, Ayenew Negesse
17Abera, Semaw F
18Abil, Olifan Zewdie
19Aboyans, Victor
20Abraha, Haftom Niguse
21Abrham, Aklilu Roba
22Abu - Raddad, Laith Jamal
23Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me
24Abyu, Gebre Y
25Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou
26Acharya, Dilaram
27Acharya, Pawan
28Adamu, Abdu A
29Adebayo, Oladimeji M
30Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
31Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji
32Adekanmbi, Victor
33Adetokunboh, Olatunji O
34Adhena, Beyene Meressa
35Adhikari, Tara Ballav
36Adib, Mina G
37Adou, Arsène Kouablan
38Adsuar, Jose C
39Afarideh, Mohsen
40Afshari, Mahdi
41Afshin, Ashkan
42Agarwal, Gina
43Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi
44Agius, Dominic
45Agrawal, Anurag
46Agrawal, Sutapa
47Ahmadi, Alireza
48Ahmadi, Mehdi
49Ahmadieh, Hamid
50Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
51Ahmed, Sayem
52Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie
53Akanda, Ali S
54Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil
55Akibu, Mohammed
56Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola
57Akinyemiju, Tomi
58Akseer, Nadia
59Alahdab, Fares
60Al - Aly, Ziyad
61Alam, Khurshid
62Alam, Tahiya
63Albujeer, Ammar
64Alebel, Animut
65Alene, Kefyalew Addis
66Al - Eyadhy, Ayman
67Alhabib, Samia
68Ali, Raghib
69Alijanzadeh, Mehran
70Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza
71Aljunid, Syed Mohamed
72Alkerwi, Ala'A
73Alla, François
74Allebeck, Peter
75Allen, Christine A
76Almasi, Ali
77Al - Maskari, Fatma
78Al - Mekhlafi, Hesham M
79Alonso, Jordi
80Al - Raddadi, Rajaa M
81Alsharif, Ubai
82Altirkawi, Khalid
83Alvis - Guzman, Nelson
84Amare, Azmeraw T
85Amenu, Kebede
86Amini, Erfan
87Ammar, Walid
88Anber, Nahla Hamed
89Anderson, Jason A
90Andrei, Catalina Liliana
91Androudi, Sofia
92Animut, Megbaru Debalkie
93Anjomshoa, Mina
94Ansari, Hossein
95Ansariadi, Ansariadi
96Ansha, Mustafa Geleto
97Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
98Anwari, Palwasha
99Appiah, Lambert Tetteh
100...
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10Abdel-Rahman
11Abdi
12Abdollahpour
13Abdulkader
14Abebe
15Abejie
16Abera
17Abil
18Aboyans
19Abraha
20Abrham
21Abu-Raddad
22Abu-Rmeileh
23Abyu
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28Adedeji
29Adedoyin
30Adekanmbi
31Adetokunboh
32Adhena
33Adhikari
34Adib
35Adou
36Adsuar
37Afarideh
38Afshari
39Afshin
40Agarwal
41Aghayan
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46Ahmed
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49Akbari
50Akibu
51Akinyemi
52Akinyemiju
53Akseer
54Alahdab
55Al-Aly
56Alam
57Albujeer
58Alebel
59Alene
60Al-Eyadhy
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63Alijanzadeh
64Alizadeh-Navaei
65Aljunid
66Alkerwi
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68Allebeck
69Allen
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71Al-Maskari
72Al-Mekhlafi
73Alonso
74Al-Raddadi
75Alsharif
76Altirkawi
77Alvis-Guzman
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80Amini
81Ammar
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84Andrei
85Androudi
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87Anjomshoa
88Ansari
89Ansariadi
90Ansha
91Antonio
92Anwari
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94Aremu
95Areri
96Ärnlöv
97Arora
98Aryal
99Asayesh
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2Degu
3Solomon M
4Cristiana
5Nooshin
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10Omar
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12Ibrahim
13Rizwan Suliankatchi
14Nebiyu Dereje
15Zegeye
16Ayenew Negesse
17Semaw F
18Olifan Zewdie
19Victor
20Haftom Niguse
21Aklilu Roba
22Laith Jamal
23Niveen Me
24Gebre Y
25Manfred Mario Kokou
26Dilaram
27Pawan
28Abdu A
29Oladimeji M
30Isaac Akinkunmi
31Rufus Adesoji
32Olatunji O
33Beyene Meressa
34Tara Ballav
35Mina G
36Arsène Kouablan
37Jose C
38Mohsen
39Mahdi
40Ashkan
41Gina
42Sargis Aghasi
43Dominic
44Anurag
45Sutapa
46Mehdi
47Hamid
48Muktar Beshir
49Sayem
50Temesgen Yihunie
51Ali S
52Mohammad Esmaeil
53Mohammed
54Rufus Olusola
55Tomi
56Nadia
57Fares
58Ziyad
59Khurshid
60Tahiya
61Ammar
62Animut
63Kefyalew Addis
64Ayman
65Samia
66Raghib
67Mehran
68Reza
69Syed Mohamed
70Ala'a
71François
72Peter
73Christine A
74Ali
75Fatma
76Hesham M
77Jordi
78Rajaa M
79Ubai
80Khalid
81Nelson
82Azmeraw T
83Kebede
84Erfan
85Walid
86Nahla Hamed
87Jason A
88Catalina Liliana
89Sofia
90Megbaru Debalkie
91Mina
92Hossein
93Ansariadi
94Mustafa Geleto
95Carl Abelardo T
96Palwasha
97Lambert Tetteh
98Olatunde
99Habtamu Abera
100...
au
0Lozano, Rafael
1Fullman, Nancy
2Abate, Degu
3Abay, Solomon M
4Abbafati, Cristiana
5Abbasi, Nooshin
6Abbastabar, Hedayat
7Abd - Allah, Foad
8Abdela, Jemal
9Abdelalim, Ahmed
10Abdel - Rahman, Omar
11Abdi, Alireza
12Abdollahpour, Ibrahim
13Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
14Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje
15Abebe, Zegeye
16Abejie, Ayenew Negesse
17Abera, Semaw F
18Abil, Olifan Zewdie
19Aboyans, Victor
20Abraha, Haftom Niguse
21Abrham, Aklilu Roba
22Abu - Raddad, Laith Jamal
23Abu - Rmeileh, Niveen Me
24Abyu, Gebre Y
25Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou
26Acharya, Dilaram
27Acharya, Pawan
28Adamu, Abdu A
29Adebayo, Oladimeji M
30Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
31Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji
32Adekanmbi, Victor
33Adetokunboh, Olatunji O
34Adhena, Beyene Meressa
35Adhikari, Tara Ballav
36Adib, Mina G
37Adou, Arsène Kouablan
38Adsuar, Jose C
39Afarideh, Mohsen
40Afshari, Mahdi
41Afshin, Ashkan
42Agarwal, Gina
43Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi
44Agius, Dominic
45Agrawal, Anurag
46Agrawal, Sutapa
47Ahmadi, Alireza
48Ahmadi, Mehdi
49Ahmadieh, Hamid
50Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
51Ahmed, Sayem
52Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie
53Akanda, Ali S
54Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil
55Akibu, Mohammed
56Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola
57Akinyemiju, Tomi
58Akseer, Nadia
59Alahdab, Fares
60Al - Aly, Ziyad
61Alam, Khurshid
62Alam, Tahiya
63Albujeer, Ammar
64Alebel, Animut
65Alene, Kefyalew Addis
66Al - Eyadhy, Ayman
67Alhabib, Samia
68Ali, Raghib
69Alijanzadeh, Mehran
70Alizadeh - Navaei, Reza
71Aljunid, Syed Mohamed
72Alkerwi, Ala'A
73Alla, François
74Allebeck, Peter
75Allen, Christine A
76Almasi, Ali
77Al - Maskari, Fatma
78Al - Mekhlafi, Hesham M
79Alonso, Jordi
80Al - Raddadi, Rajaa M
81Alsharif, Ubai
82Altirkawi, Khalid
83Alvis - Guzman, Nelson
84Amare, Azmeraw T
85Amenu, Kebede
86Amini, Erfan
87Ammar, Walid
88Anber, Nahla Hamed
89Anderson, Jason A
90Andrei, Catalina Liliana
91Androudi, Sofia
92Animut, Megbaru Debalkie
93Anjomshoa, Mina
94Ansari, Hossein
95Ansariadi, Ansariadi
96Ansha, Mustafa Geleto
97Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
98Anwari, Palwasha
99Appiah, Lambert Tetteh
100...
atitleMeasuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
jtitleLANCET
date2018
risdate2018
issn0140-6736
genrearticle
ristypeJOUR
abstractBackground: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health -related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related S DG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59.4 (IQR 35.4-67.3), ranging from a low of 11.6 (95% uncertainty interval 9.6-14.0) to a high of 84.9 (83.1-86.7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attaimnent by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health -related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health -related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence -related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains curative interventions in the case of NCDs towards multisectoral, prevention -oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the S DGs. What is clear is that our actions or inaction today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
doi10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32281-5
url
0https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8583590
1https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8583590/file/8583591
formatarticle
oafree_for_read