schliessen

Filtern

 

Bibliotheken

Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment

Catastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We teste... Full description

Journal Title: Science 27 May 2011, Vol.332(6033), pp.1079-1082
Main Author: Carpenter, S. R.
Other Authors: Cole, J. J. , Pace, M. L. , Batt, R. , Brock, W. A. , Cline, T. , Coloso, J. , Hodgson, J. R. , Kitchell, J. F. , Seekell, D. A. , Smith, L. , Weidel, B.
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
ID: ISSN: 00368075 ; E-ISSN: 10959203
Zum Text:
SendSend as email Add to Book BagAdd to Book Bag
Staff View
recordid: jstor_archive_2327977947
title: Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment
format: Article
creator:
  • Carpenter, S. R.
  • Cole, J. J.
  • Pace, M. L.
  • Batt, R.
  • Brock, W. A.
  • Cline, T.
  • Coloso, J.
  • Hodgson, J. R.
  • Kitchell, J. F.
  • Seekell, D. A.
  • Smith, L.
  • Weidel, B.
subjects:
  • Social sciences -- Communications -- Communicative content
  • Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecological processes
  • Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecosystems
  • Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecosystems
  • Biological sciences -- Biology -- Zoology
  • Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecosystem services
  • Mathematics -- Applied mathematics -- Statistics
  • Biological sciences -- Biochemistry -- Biomolecules
  • Biological sciences -- Biology -- Marine biology
  • Applied sciences -- Technology -- Safety devices
ispartof: Science, 27 May 2011, Vol.332(6033), pp.1079-1082
description: Catastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to destabilize its food web. An adjacent lake was monitored simultaneously as a reference ecosystem. Warning signals of a regime shift were evident in the manipulated lake during reorganization of the food web more than a year before the food web transition was complete, corroborating theory for leading indicators of ecological regime shifts.
language: eng
source:
identifier: ISSN: 00368075 ; E-ISSN: 10959203
fulltext: no_fulltext
issn:
  • 0036-8075
  • 00368075
  • 1095-9203
  • 10959203
url: Link


@attributes
ID811915390
RANK0.07
NO1
SEARCH_ENGINEprimo_central_multiple_fe
SEARCH_ENGINE_TYPEPrimo Central Search Engine
LOCALfalse
PrimoNMBib
record
control
sourcerecordid27977947
sourceidjstor_archive_23
recordidTN_jstor_archive_2327977947
sourceformatXML
sourcesystemPC
pqid907938612
galeid259154638
display
typearticle
titleEarly Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment
creatorCarpenter, S. R. ; Cole, J. J. ; Pace, M. L. ; Batt, R. ; Brock, W. A. ; Cline, T. ; Coloso, J. ; Hodgson, J. R. ; Kitchell, J. F. ; Seekell, D. A. ; Smith, L. ; Weidel, B.
ispartofScience, 27 May 2011, Vol.332(6033), pp.1079-1082
identifierISSN: 00368075 ; E-ISSN: 10959203
subjectSocial sciences -- Communications -- Communicative content ; Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecological processes ; Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecosystems ; Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecosystems ; Biological sciences -- Biology -- Zoology ; Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecosystem services ; Mathematics -- Applied mathematics -- Statistics ; Biological sciences -- Biochemistry -- Biomolecules ; Biological sciences -- Biology -- Marine biology ; Applied sciences -- Technology -- Safety devices
descriptionCatastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to destabilize its food web. An adjacent lake was monitored simultaneously as a reference ecosystem. Warning signals of a regime shift were evident in the manipulated lake during reorganization of the food web more than a year before the food web transition was complete, corroborating theory for leading indicators of ecological regime shifts.
languageeng
source
version9
lds50peer_reviewed
links
openurl$$Topenurl_article
openurlfulltext$$Topenurlfull_article
search
creatorcontrib
0Carpenter, S. R.
1Cole, J. J.
2Pace, M. L.
3Batt, R.
4Brock, W. A.
5Cline, T.
6Coloso, J.
7Hodgson, J. R.
8Kitchell, J. F.
9Seekell, D. A.
10Smith, L.
11Weidel, B.
titleEarly Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment
descriptionCatastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to destabilize its food web. An adjacent lake was monitored simultaneously as a reference ecosystem. Warning signals of a regime shift were evident in the manipulated lake during reorganization of the food web more than a year before the food web transition was complete, corroborating theory for leading indicators of ecological regime shifts.
subject
0Social sciences -- Communications -- Communicative content
1Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecological processes
2Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecosystems
3Biological sciences -- Biology -- Zoology
4Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecosystem services
5Mathematics -- Applied mathematics -- Statistics
6Biological sciences -- Biochemistry -- Biomolecules
7Biological sciences -- Biology -- Marine biology
8Applied sciences -- Technology -- Safety devices
general
0English
1American Association for the Advancement of Science
2Archival Journals (JSTOR)
3JSTOR Archival Journals
sourceidjstor_archive_23
recordidjstor_archive_2327977947
issn
00036-8075
100368075
21095-9203
310959203
rsrctypearticle
creationdate2011
recordtypearticle
addtitleScience
searchscope
0jstor
1jstor_hgsc
scope
0jstor
1jstor_hgsc
citationpf 1079
startdate20110527
enddate20110527
lsr30VSR-Enriched:[doi, pqid, galeid]
sort
titleEarly Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment
authorCarpenter, S. R. ; Cole, J. J. ; Pace, M. L. ; Batt, R. ; Brock, W. A. ; Cline, T. ; Coloso, J. ; Hodgson, J. R. ; Kitchell, J. F. ; Seekell, D. A. ; Smith, L. ; Weidel, B.
creationdate20110527
lso0120110527
facets
frbrgroupid6563072332684387398
frbrtype5
newrecords20170510
languageeng
creationdate2011
topic
0Social sciences -- Communications -- Communicative content
1Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecological processes
2Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecosystems
3Biological sciences -- Biology -- Zoology
4Biological sciences -- Ecology -- Ecosystem services
5Mathematics -- Applied mathematics -- Statistics
6Biological sciences -- Biochemistry -- Biomolecules
7Biological sciences -- Biology -- Marine biology
8Applied sciences -- Technology -- Safety devices
collectionJSTOR Archival Journals
prefilterarticles
rsrctypearticles
creatorcontrib
0Carpenter, S. R.
1Cole, J. J.
2Pace, M. L.
3Batt, R.
4Brock, W. A.
5Cline, T.
6Coloso, J.
7Hodgson, J. R.
8Kitchell, J. F.
9Seekell, D. A.
10Smith, L.
11Weidel, B.
jtitleScience
toplevelpeer_reviewed
delivery
delcategoryRemote Search Resource
fulltextno_fulltext
addata
aulast
0Carpenter
1Cole
2Pace
3Batt
4Brock
5Cline
6Coloso
7Hodgson
8Kitchell
9Seekell
10Smith
11Weidel
aufirst
0S. R.
1J. J.
2M. L.
3R.
4W. A.
5T.
6J.
7J. R.
8J. F.
9D. A.
10L.
11B.
au
0Carpenter, S. R.
1Cole, J. J.
2Pace, M. L.
3Batt, R.
4Brock, W. A.
5Cline, T.
6Coloso, J.
7Hodgson, J. R.
8Kitchell, J. F.
9Seekell, D. A.
10Smith, L.
11Weidel, B.
atitleEarly Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment
jtitleScience
risdate20110527
volume332
issue6033
spage1079
epage1082
pages1079-1082
issn00368075
eissn10959203
formatjournal
genrearticle
ristypeJOUR
abstractCatastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to destabilize its food web. An adjacent lake was monitored simultaneously as a reference ecosystem. Warning signals of a regime shift were evident in the manipulated lake during reorganization of the food web more than a year before the food web transition was complete, corroborating theory for leading indicators of ecological regime shifts.
pubAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science
doi10.1126/science.1203672
date2011-05-27