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Understanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning.

The modes of transmission model has been widely used to help decision-makers target measures for preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. The model estimates the number of new HIV infections that will be acquired over the ensuing year by individuals in identified risk groups in a giv... Full description

Journal Title: Bulletin of the World Health Organization November 1, 2012, Vol.90(11), pp.831-838A
Main Author: Case, Kelsey K
Other Authors: Ghys, Peter D , Gouws, Eleanor , Eaton, Jeffrey W , Borquez, Annick , Stover, John , Cuchi, Paloma , Abu-Raddad, Laith J , Garnett, Geoffrey P , Hallett, Timothy B , Case, Kelsey K
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
ID: E-ISSN: 1564-0604 ; DOI: 10.2471/BLT.12.102574
Link: http://search.proquest.com/docview/1282041122/?pq-origsite=primo
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title: Understanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning.
format: Article
creator:
  • Case, Kelsey K
  • Ghys, Peter D
  • Gouws, Eleanor
  • Eaton, Jeffrey W
  • Borquez, Annick
  • Stover, John
  • Cuchi, Paloma
  • Abu-Raddad, Laith J
  • Garnett, Geoffrey P
  • Hallett, Timothy B
  • Case, Kelsey K
subjects:
  • Adult–Statistics & Numerical Data
  • Female–Trends
  • Global Health–Epidemiology
  • HIV Infections–Prevention & Control
  • Humans–Transmission
  • Male–Methods
  • Models, Biological–Complications
  • Prevalence–Epidemiology
  • Risk Assessment–Prevention & Control
  • Substance Abuse, Intravenous–Prevention & Control
  • Unsafe Sex–Statistics & Numerical Data
ispartof: Bulletin of the World Health Organization, November 1, 2012, Vol.90(11), pp.831-838A
description: The modes of transmission model has been widely used to help decision-makers target measures for preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. The model estimates the number of new HIV infections that will be acquired over the ensuing year by individuals in identified risk groups in a given population using data on the size of the groups, the aggregate risk behaviour in each group, the current prevalence of HIV infection among the sexual or injecting drug partners of individuals in each group, and the probability of HIV transmission associated with different risk behaviours. The strength of the model is its simplicity, which enables data from a variety of sources to be synthesized, resulting in better characterization of HIV epidemics in some settings. However, concerns have been raised about the assumptions underlying the model structure, about limitations in the data available for deriving input parameters and about interpretation and communication of the model results. The aim of this review was to improve the use of the model by reassessing its paradigm, structure and data requirements. We identified key questions to be asked when conducting an analysis and when interpreting the model results and make recommendations for strengthening the model's application in the future. Le modele de modes de transmission a ete largement utilise pour aider les decideurs a cibler les mesures empechant l'infection par le virus d'immunodeficience humaine (VIH). Le modete estime le nombre de nouvelles infections par leVIH au cours de l'annee suivante, contractees par des individus appartenant aux groupes a risque identifies d'une population donnee, en utilisant des donnees sur la taille des groupes, le comportement a risque global de chaque groupe, la prevalence actuelle de l'infection par le VIH entre partenaires sexuels ou d'injection de drogues de chaque groupe, et la probabilite de transmission du VIH associee aux divers comportements a risque. La force du modele reside dans sa simplicite, permettant de synthetiser des donnees provenant d'une variete de sources, ce qui donne une meilleure caracterisation de I'epidemie du VIH dans certains contextes. Toutefois, des problemes ont ete releves concernant les hypotheses qui sous-tendent la structure du modele, les limites des donnees disponibles pour obtenir les parametres d'entree, ainsi que l'interpretation et la communication des resultats du modele. L'objectif de la presente etude etait d'ameliorer l'utilis
language: eng
source:
identifier: E-ISSN: 1564-0604 ; DOI: 10.2471/BLT.12.102574
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 15640604
  • 1564-0604
url: Link


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titleUnderstanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning.
creatorCase, Kelsey K ; Ghys, Peter D ; Gouws, Eleanor ; Eaton, Jeffrey W ; Borquez, Annick ; Stover, John ; Cuchi, Paloma ; Abu-Raddad, Laith J ; Garnett, Geoffrey P ; Hallett, Timothy B ; Case, Kelsey K
contributorAtun, Rifat (correspondence author) ; Auvert, Bertran (record owner) ; Bacaer, Nicolas ; Barnighausen, Till ; Bershteyn, Anna ; Boily, Marie-Claude ; Delva, Wim ; Eckhoff, Philip ; Foss, Anna ; Heijne, Janneke ; Klein, Daniel J ; Low, Nicola ; Lowndes, Catherine M ; Mishra, Sharmistha ; Pretorius, Carel ; Welte, Alex ; White, Peter ; Williams, Brian ; Wilson, David ; Wilson, David P ; Zaba, Basia ; Prudden, Holly ; Prudden, Holly ; Prudden, Holly
ispartofBulletin of the World Health Organization, November 1, 2012, Vol.90(11), pp.831-838A
identifierE-ISSN: 1564-0604 ; DOI: 10.2471/BLT.12.102574
subjectAdult–Statistics & Numerical Data ; Female–Trends ; Global Health–Epidemiology ; HIV Infections–Prevention & Control ; Humans–Transmission ; Male–Methods ; Models, Biological–Complications ; Prevalence–Epidemiology ; Risk Assessment–Prevention & Control ; Substance Abuse, Intravenous–Prevention & Control ; Unsafe Sex–Statistics & Numerical Data
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descriptionThe modes of transmission model has been widely used to help decision-makers target measures for preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. The model estimates the number of new HIV infections that will be acquired over the ensuing year by individuals in identified risk groups in a given population using data on the size of the groups, the aggregate risk behaviour in each group, the current prevalence of HIV infection among the sexual or injecting drug partners of individuals in each group, and the probability of HIV transmission associated with different risk behaviours. The strength of the model is its simplicity, which enables data from a variety of sources to be synthesized, resulting in better characterization of HIV epidemics in some settings. However, concerns have been raised about the assumptions underlying the model structure, about limitations in the data available for deriving input parameters and about interpretation and communication of the model results. The aim of this review was to improve the use of the model by reassessing its paradigm, structure and data requirements. We identified key questions to be asked when conducting an analysis and when interpreting the model results and make recommendations for strengthening the model's application in the future. Le modele de modes de transmission a ete largement utilise pour aider les decideurs a cibler les mesures empechant l'infection par le virus d'immunodeficience humaine (VIH). Le modete estime le nombre de nouvelles infections par leVIH au cours de l'annee suivante, contractees par des individus appartenant aux groupes a risque identifies d'une population donnee, en utilisant des donnees sur la taille des groupes, le comportement a risque global de chaque groupe, la prevalence actuelle de l'infection par le VIH entre partenaires sexuels ou d'injection de drogues de chaque groupe, et la probabilite de transmission du VIH associee aux divers comportements a risque. La force du modele reside dans sa simplicite, permettant de synthetiser des donnees provenant d'une variete de sources, ce qui donne une meilleure caracterisation de I'epidemie du VIH dans certains contextes. Toutefois, des problemes ont ete releves concernant les hypotheses qui sous-tendent la structure du modele, les limites des donnees disponibles pour obtenir les parametres d'entree, ainsi que l'interpretation et la communication des resultats du modele. L'objectif de la presente etude etait d'ameliorer l'utilisation du modele en reevaluant son paradigme, sa structure et ses exigences en termes de donnees. Nous avons identifie les principales questions a poser lors de l'analyse et de l'interpretation des resultats du modele, et nous faisons des recommandations visant a renforcer l'application du modele a l'avenir. El modelo de los modos de transmision se ha empteado de manera cjeneralizada para ayudar a los responsables de la toma de decisiones a dirigir las medidas para la prevencion de la infeccion por el virus de la inmunodehciencia humana (VIH). El modelo calcula el numero de infecciones porVIH nuevas adquiridas durante el ano subsiguiente por individuos en grupos de riesgo identificados en una poblacion dada empleando datos acerca del tamano de los grupos, el comportamiento de riescjo conjunto en cada grupo, la prevalencia actual de la infeccion por VIH entre las parejas sexuales o personas que comparten jeringuillas para el consumo de drogas de los individuos de cada grupo y la probabilidad de trasmitir elVIH asociada a los diferentes comportamientos de riesgo. El punto fuerte del modelo es su sencillez, que permite sintetizar datos de fuentes variadas, de lo que resulta una caracterizacion mas exacta de la epidemia del VIM en algunos entornos. No obstante, han surgido dudas acerca de las suposiciones que subyacen a la estructura del modelo, las limitaciones de los datos disponibles para derivar de ellos parametros de entrada y la interpretacion y comunicacion de los resultados dei modelo. El objeto de este examen fue el de mejorar el uso del modelo volviendo a examinar su paradigma, su estructura y los requisitos de los datos. Identificamos los puntos clave que deben cuestionarse durante la realizacion de un analisis y la interpretacion de los resultados dei modelo y formulamos recomendaciones para consolidar la aplicacion del modelo en el futuro.
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titleUnderstanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning.
authorCase, Kelsey K ; Ghys, Peter D ; Gouws, Eleanor ; Eaton, Jeffrey W ; Borquez, Annick ; Stover, John ; Cuchi, Paloma ; Abu-Raddad, Laith J ; Garnett, Geoffrey P ; Hallett, Timothy B ; Case, Kelsey K
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