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Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies1,2, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses... Full description

Journal Title: Nature Nov 12, 2015, Vol.527(7577), pp.235-239K
Main Author: Burke, Marshall
Other Authors: Hsiang, Solomon , Miguel, Edward
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
ID: ISSN: 00280836 ; E-ISSN: 14764687 ; DOI: 10.1038/nature15725
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recordid: proquest1733897614
title: Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
format: Article
creator:
  • Burke, Marshall
  • Hsiang, Solomon
  • Miguel, Edward
subjects:
  • Climate Change
  • Economic Models
  • Trends
  • Estimates
  • Economic Growth
  • Productivity
ispartof: Nature, Nov 12, 2015, Vol.527(7577), pp.235-239K
description: Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies1,2, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries3,4. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature5, while poor countries respond only linearly5,6. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems7,8 and to anticipating the global impact of climate change9,10. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is nonlinear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 6C and declining...
language: eng
source:
identifier: ISSN: 00280836 ; E-ISSN: 14764687 ; DOI: 10.1038/nature15725
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 00280836
  • 0028-0836
  • 14764687
  • 1476-4687
url: Link


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descriptionGrowing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies1,2, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries3,4. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature5, while poor countries respond only linearly5,6. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems7,8 and to anticipating the global impact of climate change9,10. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is nonlinear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 6C and declining...
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abstractGrowing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies1,2, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries3,4. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature5, while poor countries respond only linearly5,6. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems7,8 and to anticipating the global impact of climate change9,10. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is nonlinear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 6C and declining...
copLondon
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doi10.1038/nature15725
urlhttp://search.proquest.com/docview/1733897614/
date2015-11-12