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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUNDThe scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained politic... Full description

Journal Title: Lancet (London England), May 13, 2017, Vol.389(10082), pp.1885-1906
Main Author: Reitsma, Marissa B
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
ID: E-ISSN: 1474-547X ; DOI: 1474-547X ; DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X
Link: http://search.proquest.com/docview/1886359856/?pq-origsite=primo
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title: Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
format: Article
creator:
  • Reitsma, Marissa B
subjects:
  • Adolescent–Epidemiology
  • Adult–Epidemiology
  • Age Distribution–Epidemiology
  • Aged–Epidemiology
  • Aged, 80 and Over–Epidemiology
  • Female–Epidemiology
  • Global Burden of Disease–Epidemiology
  • Global Health–Epidemiology
  • Humans–Epidemiology
  • Internationality–Epidemiology
  • Male–Epidemiology
  • Middle Aged–Epidemiology
  • Normal Distribution–Epidemiology
  • Prevalence–Epidemiology
  • Quality-Adjusted Life Years–Epidemiology
  • Retrospective Studies–Epidemiology
  • Risk Factors–Epidemiology
  • Sex Distribution–Epidemiology
  • Smoking–Epidemiology
  • Socioeconomic Factors–Epidemiology
  • Young Adult–Epidemiology
  • Abridged
ispartof: Lancet (London, England), May 13, 2017, Vol.389(10082), pp.1885-1906
description: BACKGROUNDThe scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. METHODSWe synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGSWorldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·2-25·7) for men and 5·4% (5·1-5·7) for women, representing 28·4% (25·8-31·1) and 34·4% (29·4-38·6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11·5% of global deaths (6·4 million [95% UI 5·7-7·0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52·2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development.
language: eng
source:
identifier: E-ISSN: 1474-547X ; DOI: 1474-547X ; DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 1474547X
  • 1474-547X
url: Link


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titleSmoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
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ispartofLancet (London, England), May 13, 2017, Vol.389(10082), pp.1885-1906
identifier
subjectAdolescent–Epidemiology ; Adult–Epidemiology ; Age Distribution–Epidemiology ; Aged–Epidemiology ; Aged, 80 and Over–Epidemiology ; Female–Epidemiology ; Global Burden of Disease–Epidemiology ; Global Health–Epidemiology ; Humans–Epidemiology ; Internationality–Epidemiology ; Male–Epidemiology ; Middle Aged–Epidemiology ; Normal Distribution–Epidemiology ; Prevalence–Epidemiology ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years–Epidemiology ; Retrospective Studies–Epidemiology ; Risk Factors–Epidemiology ; Sex Distribution–Epidemiology ; Smoking–Epidemiology ; Socioeconomic Factors–Epidemiology ; Young Adult–Epidemiology ; Abridged
descriptionBACKGROUNDThe scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. METHODSWe synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGSWorldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·2-25·7) for men and 5·4% (5·1-5·7) for women, representing 28·4% (25·8-31·1) and 34·4% (29·4-38·6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11·5% of global deaths (6·4 million [95% UI 5·7-7·0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52·2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. INTERPRETATIONThe pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years. FUNDINGBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.
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titleSmoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
descriptionBACKGROUNDThe scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. METHODSWe synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGSWorldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·2-25·7) for men and 5·4% (5·1-5·7) for women, representing 28·4% (25·8-31·1) and 34·4% (29·4-38·6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11·5% of global deaths (6·4 million [95% UI 5·7-7·0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52·2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. INTERPRETATIONThe pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years. FUNDINGBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.
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1Adult–Epidemiology
2Age Distribution–Epidemiology
3Aged–Epidemiology
4Aged, 80 and Over–Epidemiology
5Female–Epidemiology
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7Global Health–Epidemiology
8Humans–Epidemiology
9Internationality–Epidemiology
10Male–Epidemiology
11Middle Aged–Epidemiology
12Normal Distribution–Epidemiology
13Prevalence–Epidemiology
14Quality-Adjusted Life Years–Epidemiology
15Retrospective Studies–Epidemiology
16Risk Factors–Epidemiology
17Sex Distribution–Epidemiology
18Smoking–Epidemiology
19Socioeconomic Factors–Epidemiology
20Young Adult–Epidemiology
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8Abyu, Gebre Yitayih
9Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi
10Al-Aly, Ziyad
11Aleman, Alicia V
12Ali, Raghib
13Al Alkerwi, Ala'a
14Allebeck, Peter
15Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad
16Amare, Azmeraw T
17Amberbir, Alemayehu
18Ammar, Walid
19Amrock, Stephen Marc
20Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
21Asayesh, Hamid
22Atnafu, Niguse Tadela
23Azzopardi, Peter
24Banerjee, Amitava
25Barac, Aleksandra
26Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh
27Basto-Abreu, Ana Cristina
28Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad
29Bedi, Neeraj
30Bell, Brent
31Bello, Aminu K
32Bensenor, Isabela M
33Beyene, Addisu Shunu
34Bhala, Neeraj
35Biryukov, Stan
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39Cavalleri, Fiorella
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57Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu
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59Endries, Aman Yesuf
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62Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino
63Farzadfar, Farshad
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titleSmoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
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25Banerjee, Amitava
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27Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh
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29Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad
30Bedi, Neeraj
31Bell, Brent
32Bello, Aminu K
33Bensenor, Isabela M
34Beyene, Addisu Shunu
35Bhala, Neeraj
36Biryukov, Stan
37Bolt, Kaylin
38Brenner, Hermann
39Butt, Zahid
40Cavalleri, Fiorella
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46Colomar, Mercedes
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53Davletov, Kairat
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55Degfie, Tizta Tilahun
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57Dharmaratne, Samath D
58Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu
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61Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich
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72Gillum, Richard F
73Gold, Audra L
74Gopalani, Sameer Vali
75Gotay, Carolyn C
76Gupta, Rahul
77Gupta, Rajeev
78Gupta, Vipin
79Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
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aufirstMarissa B
auReitsma, Marissa B
addau
0Fullman, Nancy
1Ng, Marie
2Salama, Joseph S
3Abajobir, Amanuel
4Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
5Abbafati, Cristiana
6Abera, Semaw Ferede
7Abraham, Biju
8Abyu, Gebre Yitayih
9Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi
10Al-Aly, Ziyad
11Aleman, Alicia V
12Ali, Raghib
13Al Alkerwi, Ala'a
14Allebeck, Peter
15Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad
16Amare, Azmeraw T
17Amberbir, Alemayehu
18Ammar, Walid
19Amrock, Stephen Marc
20Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
21Asayesh, Hamid
22Atnafu, Niguse Tadela
23Azzopardi, Peter
24Banerjee, Amitava
25Barac, Aleksandra
26Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh
27Basto-Abreu, Ana Cristina
28Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad
29Bedi, Neeraj
30Bell, Brent
31Bello, Aminu K
32Bensenor, Isabela M
33Beyene, Addisu Shunu
34Bhala, Neeraj
35Biryukov, Stan
36Bolt, Kaylin
37Brenner, Hermann
38Butt, Zahid
39Cavalleri, Fiorella
40Cercy, Kelly
41Chen, Honglei
42Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas
43Ciobanu, Liliana G
44Colistro, Valentina
45Colomar, Mercedes
46Cornaby, Leslie
47Dai, Xiaochen
48Damtew, Solomon Abrha
49Dandona, Lalit
50Dandona, Rakhi
51Dansereau, Emily
52Davletov, Kairat
53Dayama, Anand
54Degfie, Tizta Tilahun
55Deribew, Amare
56Dharmaratne, Samath D
57Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu
58Doyle, Kerrie E
59Endries, Aman Yesuf
60Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich
61Estep, Kara
62Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino
63Farzadfar, Farshad
64Feigin, Valery L
65Feigl, Andrea B
66Fischer, Florian
67Friedman, Joseph
68G/Hiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde
69Gall, Seana L
70Gao, Wayne
71Gillum, Richard F
72Gold, Audra L
73Gopalani, Sameer Vali
74Gotay, Carolyn C
75Gupta, Rahul
76Gupta, Rajeev
77Gupta, Vipin
78Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
79Hankey, Graeme
80Harb, Hilda L
81Hay, Simon I
82Horino, Masako
83Horita, Nobuyuki
84Hosgood, H Dean
85Husseini, Abdullatif
86Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile
87Islami, Farhad
88Jiang, Guohong
89Jiang, Ying
90Jonas, Jost B
91Kabir, Zubair
92Kamal, Ritul
93Kasaeian, Amir
94Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair
95Khader, Yousef S
96Khalil, Ibrahim
97Khang, Young-Ho
98Khera, Sahil
99Khubchandani, Jagdish
100...
atitleSmoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
jtitleLancet (London, England)
risdate20170513
volume389
issue10082
spage1885
epage1906
pages1885-1906
eissn1474-547X
formatjournal
genrearticle
ristypeJOUR
abstractBACKGROUNDThe scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. METHODSWe synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGSWorldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·2-25·7) for men and 5·4% (5·1-5·7) for women, representing 28·4% (25·8-31·1) and 34·4% (29·4-38·6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11·5% of global deaths (6·4 million [95% UI 5·7-7·0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52·2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. INTERPRETATIONThe pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years. FUNDINGBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.
doi10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X
urlhttp://search.proquest.com/docview/1886359856/
isbn0004009735000
issn01406736
date2017-05-13