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Long lead-time streamflow forecasting of the North Platte River incorporating oceanic-atmospheric climate variability

An evaluation of the influence of oceanic-atmospheric climate variability on streamflow in the upper North Platte River basin is presented. Through the application of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) statistical methods, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), 500mbar geopotential height (Z sub(5) sub(0)... Full description

Journal Title: Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam) April 30, 2009, Vol.368(1-4), pp.131-142
Main Author: Soukup, T
Other Authors: Aziz, O , Tootle, G , Piechota, T , Wulff, S
Format: Electronic Article Electronic Article
Language: English
Subjects:
ID: ISSN: 0022-1694 ; DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.047
Link: http://search.proquest.com/docview/20500251/?pq-origsite=primo
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title: Long lead-time streamflow forecasting of the North Platte River incorporating oceanic-atmospheric climate variability
format: Article
creator:
  • Soukup, T
  • Aziz, O
  • Tootle, G
  • Piechota, T
  • Wulff, S
subjects:
  • Prediction
  • Water Management
  • Climatic Changes
  • Ocean-Atmosphere System
  • River Basins
  • Climatology
  • Southern Oscillation
  • Dynamic Height
  • Stream Flow
  • Streamflow Forecasting
  • Climatic Variability
  • Geopotential Field Analysis
  • El Nino-Southern Oscillation Event
  • River Basins
  • Seasonal Variability
  • Climatology
  • Statistical Forecasting
  • Sea Surface Temperatures
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation
  • Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting
  • Southern Oscillation
  • Evaluation
  • River Basins
  • Variability
  • Hydrologic Models
  • El Nino
  • Climates
  • Climatology
  • Streamflow
  • Expansion
  • Evaluation
  • River Basins
  • Variability
  • Hydrologic Models
  • El Nino
  • Climates
  • Climatology
  • Streamflow
  • Expansion
  • USA, Wyoming, North Platte R.
  • Marine
  • Freshwater
  • Streamflow and Runoff
  • Water Resources and Supplies
  • Structure, Mechanics and Thermodynamics
  • Runoff (556.16)
ispartof: Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), April 30, 2009, Vol.368(1-4), pp.131-142
description: An evaluation of the influence of oceanic-atmospheric climate variability on streamflow in the upper North Platte River basin is presented. Through the application of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) statistical methods, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), 500mbar geopotential height (Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0)) values and North Platte streamflow were evaluated over a historical period from 1948 to 2006. This resulted in the identification of new regions of highly correlated SSTs and Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) that may not be represented by existing index regions (Nino 3.4 - defined El Nino Southern Oscillation region, PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and AMO - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). A long lead-time approach was utilized such that a three month lead-time (seasonal average of monthly SSTs or Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) for October, November, and December) as well as a six month lead-time (seasonal average of monthly SSTs or Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) for July, August, and September) of previous year variability were used as predictors for the following year spring streamflow (seasonal monthly average of April, May, June, and July). Temporal expansion series from SVD were utilized as predictors in a non-parametric model to develop continuous exceedance probability forecasts. The results displayed good skill using SSTs for the six month lead-time forecast and excellent skill using Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) values for the three month lead-time forecast. The improved skill found over basic climatology forecasts will be useful to water managers when trying to predict and manage expected streamflow volumes several months in advance.
language: eng
source:
identifier: ISSN: 0022-1694 ; DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.047
fulltext: fulltext
issn:
  • 00221694
  • 0022-1694
url: Link


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titleLong lead-time streamflow forecasting of the North Platte River incorporating oceanic-atmospheric climate variability
creatorSoukup, T ; Aziz, O ; Tootle, G ; Piechota, T ; Wulff, S
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ispartofJournal of Hydrology (Amsterdam), April 30, 2009, Vol.368(1-4), pp.131-142
identifierISSN: 0022-1694 ; DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.047
subjectPrediction ; Water Management ; Climatic Changes ; Ocean-Atmosphere System ; River Basins ; Climatology ; Southern Oscillation ; Dynamic Height ; Stream Flow ; Streamflow Forecasting ; Climatic Variability ; Geopotential Field Analysis ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation Event ; River Basins ; Seasonal Variability ; Climatology ; Statistical Forecasting ; Sea Surface Temperatures ; Pacific Decadal Oscillation ; Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting ; Southern Oscillation ; Evaluation ; River Basins ; Variability ; Hydrologic Models ; El Nino ; Climates ; Climatology ; Streamflow ; Expansion ; Evaluation ; River Basins ; Variability ; Hydrologic Models ; El Nino ; Climates ; Climatology ; Streamflow ; Expansion ; USA, Wyoming, North Platte R. ; Marine ; Freshwater ; Streamflow and Runoff ; Water Resources and Supplies ; Structure, Mechanics and Thermodynamics ; Runoff (556.16)
descriptionAn evaluation of the influence of oceanic-atmospheric climate variability on streamflow in the upper North Platte River basin is presented. Through the application of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) statistical methods, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), 500mbar geopotential height (Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0)) values and North Platte streamflow were evaluated over a historical period from 1948 to 2006. This resulted in the identification of new regions of highly correlated SSTs and Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) that may not be represented by existing index regions (Nino 3.4 - defined El Nino Southern Oscillation region, PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and AMO - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). A long lead-time approach was utilized such that a three month lead-time (seasonal average of monthly SSTs or Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) for October, November, and December) as well as a six month lead-time (seasonal average of monthly SSTs or Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) for July, August, and September) of previous year variability were used as predictors for the following year spring streamflow (seasonal monthly average of April, May, June, and July). Temporal expansion series from SVD were utilized as predictors in a non-parametric model to develop continuous exceedance probability forecasts. The results displayed good skill using SSTs for the six month lead-time forecast and excellent skill using Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) values for the three month lead-time forecast. The improved skill found over basic climatology forecasts will be useful to water managers when trying to predict and manage expected streamflow volumes several months in advance.
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titleLong lead-time streamflow forecasting of the North Platte River incorporating oceanic-atmospheric climate variability
descriptionAn evaluation of the influence of oceanic-atmospheric climate variability on streamflow in the upper North Platte River basin is presented. Through the application of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) statistical methods, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), 500mbar geopotential height (Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0)) values and North Platte streamflow were evaluated over a historical period from 1948 to 2006. This resulted in the identification of new regions of highly correlated SSTs and Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) that may not be represented by existing index regions (Nino 3.4 - defined El Nino Southern Oscillation region, PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and AMO - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). A long lead-time approach was utilized such that a three month lead-time (seasonal average of monthly SSTs or Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) for October, November, and December) as well as a six month lead-time (seasonal average of monthly SSTs or Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) for July, August, and September) of previous year variability were used as predictors for the following year spring streamflow (seasonal monthly average of April, May, June, and July). Temporal expansion series from SVD were utilized as predictors in a non-parametric model to develop continuous exceedance probability forecasts. The results displayed good skill using SSTs for the six month lead-time forecast and excellent skill using Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) values for the three month lead-time forecast. The improved skill found over basic climatology forecasts will be useful to water managers when trying to predict and manage expected streamflow volumes several months in advance.
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14Statistical Forecasting
15Sea Surface Temperatures
16Pacific Decadal Oscillation
17Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting
18Evaluation
19Variability
20Hydrologic Models
21El Nino
22Climates
23Streamflow
24Expansion
25USA, Wyoming, North Platte R.
26Marine
27Freshwater
28Streamflow and Runoff
29Water Resources and Supplies
30Structure, Mechanics and Thermodynamics
31Runoff (556.16)
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abstractAn evaluation of the influence of oceanic-atmospheric climate variability on streamflow in the upper North Platte River basin is presented. Through the application of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) statistical methods, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), 500mbar geopotential height (Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0)) values and North Platte streamflow were evaluated over a historical period from 1948 to 2006. This resulted in the identification of new regions of highly correlated SSTs and Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) that may not be represented by existing index regions (Nino 3.4 - defined El Nino Southern Oscillation region, PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and AMO - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). A long lead-time approach was utilized such that a three month lead-time (seasonal average of monthly SSTs or Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) for October, November, and December) as well as a six month lead-time (seasonal average of monthly SSTs or Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) for July, August, and September) of previous year variability were used as predictors for the following year spring streamflow (seasonal monthly average of April, May, June, and July). Temporal expansion series from SVD were utilized as predictors in a non-parametric model to develop continuous exceedance probability forecasts. The results displayed good skill using SSTs for the six month lead-time forecast and excellent skill using Z sub(5) sub(0) sub(0) values for the three month lead-time forecast. The improved skill found over basic climatology forecasts will be useful to water managers when trying to predict and manage expected streamflow volumes several months in advance.
doi10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.047
urlhttp://search.proquest.com/docview/20500251/
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date2009-04-30